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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Really aggressive on Graterol, but I don't think there's much arguing the upside. His video does look nice...looks strong and athletic, and obviously the velocity. The risk and distance to the major leagues has him lower, IMO. I'm high on him, but not quite that excited yet. One thing that would help (in terms of how I look at him at this point in time) is if we were seeing him handle a realistic workload. And two years removed from the surgery, we're not seeing that yet. I'm not suggesting this is, in and of itself, an indication of an issue...I'm saying it's tough to get a good sense of his trajectory when he's sitting at one season of 40 innings and another (this season) where he's sitting at 50 innings in the middle of July. I imagine by next year (hopefully) we'll start seeing him handling a regular workload and, at the same time, facing tougher competition.
  2. jkcarew
    Now Cody....you had all 5 on this list ranked below Lewin Diaz, right? I don’t think it’s too late to go with simple denial.
  3. jkcarew
    No. You are citing data that is real. Where we are disagreeing is in what the data means and how (or if) it would materially impact Dozier's trade value in a 2-3 month rental scenario. So, the things we are disagreeing on are subjective and a matter of opinion.
  4. jkcarew
    Let me try to elaborate. I looked at you link. You can see the numbers vary wildly from year to year. I do not at all believe that Dozier has a reputation as a "choker" among decision-makers in the industry, REGARDLESS of the numbers you cite. "Close and Late" numbers are compiled against the best relievers in the game (to a significant degree) and numbers moderately below overall numbers are not uncommon at all....it's not abnormal. If you disagree, and think Dozier's value is materially tainted by performance in 'clutch' situations, that's your prerogative. I very much doubt that is the case.
  5. jkcarew
    Again, how he fared in 2018 in these scenarios will have no bearing on his trade value.
  6. jkcarew
    For those that love to talk about Dozier's RISP struggles. This is a number that varies widely from year to year for most all batters. Dozier's BA RiSP is down this year. For his career his BA RiSP is almost identical to his overall career BA (as it is for most players). His 2018 BA RiSP will have absolutely nothing to do with his perceived value among potential trade partners.
  7. jkcarew
    I love Dozier as a player, but even I don't want to watch him play for 2 more months just because his replacement will probably make the team weaker. When you pull the plug on a season, you pull the plug. So, if he's not going to be here in 2019, at the very least you can assess 'how far away' Gordon is, etc...or further assess whether you want Adrianza in 2019...or what Escobar looks like at 2nd...anything that has any relevance at all for 2019 plans. I think the return will be limited under current circumstances, but I see that as almost irrelevant. You're not going to give him a QO. Under these circumstances, I'm almost more interested in seeing where he goes, than what we get. The work and improvement he made to transform himself into what he's become warrants a real opportunity in the playoffs...and hopefully a decent payday in the off season.
  8. jkcarew
    Blankenhorn higher than I’d have him. “...keeps his strikeouts in check”. Actually, he’s creeping toward danger, at over 26% this year at the A+ level. That Doesn’t usually go down from here. He’s got to hit the ball over the fence with his profile. It’s hard to judge him too harshly playing in the offensive wasteland that is the FSL, and only 21...but, I’d be higher on him if he could project to an every-day second baseman defensively.
  9. jkcarew
    Tough decision, made tougher by the Buxton/Sano situations. Doubtful this team can challenge in the AL in the next couple of years, even with Realmuto, if Buxton and Sano aren't the good versions we've glimpsed. And, if they ARE the good versions, do you really need Realmuto? Probably not (although, you'd still need more than we're currently getting at the position). Aside from the strategic considerations, if I think Lewis is going to stick at SS and be average+ defensively...I don't know if this is the current read, or not...but if it is, I'm not trading Lewis for 2 years of anyone not named Mike Trout.
  10. jkcarew
    I concede. Two of his base runners scoring in his last inning with him in the clubhouse. It was a strong start.
  11. jkcarew
    Yes, it was decent for sure...strikeouts a bit pedestrian for a power arm...a few more pitches. But only his second game at this level...and I suppose a starter will never see the 7th inning by the time Graterol is in his prime.
  12. jkcarew
    With regard to Jeffers, I don’t know that I’d say the Twins are “believers” in him behind the plate. I’d say it’s more like the Twins felt that it would be “worth a shot” to see if he sticks...given availability at 59th pick...and that if he doesn’t, he still would have a decent chance at providing value at DH/1B. It seems that if the scouting consensus had him sticking as a probability, he would have been long gone by the 59th pick.
  13. jkcarew
    Struggling horrifically with A+ pitching in his age 21 year...almost never walks, power tool showing little sign of development, and zero defensive flexibility. Yeah, Diaz might be a little too high.
  14. jkcarew
    A day well lived. Thanks for sharing!
  15. jkcarew
    I read the title and expected to read about a strong start from Graterol. I guess everything’s relative. One one hand, a half season’s worth of starts like that might actually slow his ascent. On the other hand, it was way, way better than his first start at Fort Myers. But the numbers ‘19’ and ‘101’ trump anything that appears in the box score. Understandably so.
  16. jkcarew
    Nice analysis. A lot of interesting data. In this particular case, I think conclusions are not obvious. Dozier’s walk rate is also down...at the same time his pitches per at-bat are up, his chase rate is down and his contact is weaker. Much of that is counter-intuitive. I think the simplest conclusion may be the only one that holds water...he’s simply not getting the barrel to the ball as frequently as in the past. His age profiles to where this starts happening. I think it’s been slightly compounded by bad luck...as his extraordinarily low BABiP (even for him) can probably not be explained solely by the marginally weaker contact.
  17. jkcarew
    Unless the play on the field is against Baltimore Orioles have averaged fewer than 3 runs every 7 innings, which is what they got off Gibson today. Baltimore has now scored 50 fewer runs than the Twins...with two more games played. Close your eyes for a moment, envision the typical Twins lineup and performance this year...and then contemplate a team being WAY worse offensively than that. That’s the 2018 Baltimore Orioles.
  18. jkcarew
    But why would we expect Kepler to turn into a league average BABIP guy? For some profiles (e.g. Dozier) it never normalizes to average, and Kepler shows every sign of being one of those guys. Never been even in shouting distance of league average...an easy target for aggressive shifts, rarely hits a ball hard to the left of center, etc. I don’t think it’s that much of a stretch to think Cave couldn’t be in the same neighborhood OBP-wise as Kepler, with the difference being who consistently shows more SLG.
  19. jkcarew
    Not to mention OPS in the neighborhood of 700 for the other 3/4 of games. Now, if he could catch....never mind.
  20. jkcarew
    This season is on the players mostly. Opening day starters that haven’t performed to their standard: Castro, Mauer, Dozier, Sano, Buxton, Kepler, and Morrison....and some of these performances haven’t just been poor...they’ve been catastrophic...oh, and the starting SS got himself suspended. While all of this has exposed an embarrassing lack of major league depth in specific cases ©, no organization is going to survive this many starters failing. Not saying roster weirdness (and on-field managerial challenges) haven’t made things more painful than they needed to be from time to time. Having said that, now is the time for the FO to come to the fore. The time for deferring to the manager’s methods/desire to win a game are past us. The moves with Sano and now Buxton were pretty drastic steps...now let’s see more of that. Sell and promote aggressively...learn as much as possible regarding young assets before this off-season.
  21. jkcarew
    Don't know how toolsy he really is. He's already bigger than most that end up sticking at SS, and he really hasn't shown any speed (at least in terms of SB) yet. On the plus side, more mistakes and bigger mistakes are made on the very young players...and this kid was drafted at a very young age. Maybe we'll have a 6th-round steel. Nice to see him already doing well at Elizabethton.
  22. jkcarew
    I think he has some pop. Pretty high percentage of his hits have been for extra bases...for instance, has more combined HR and triples than Lewis despite significantly fewer hits. So, I suppose that, along with the patient approach earns a lot of walks. (And a lot of deep counts and resulting K’s). It will really be interesting to watch his development.
  23. jkcarew
    Cool photo! Could we see that photo with Target Field as the backdrop some day?
  24. jkcarew
    Molitor is neither as good as the second half of 2017 indicated, nor is he as bad as the last couple months would indicate. I said before, I don't think he was the best choice when the Twins hired him. And don't feel differently now. Twins have made a few high-profile decisions with a nod to (at least a bit) of provincial thinking...Morris (he was coming off a pretty poor '89/'90 stretch), Mauer vs Pryor, Molitor. As Michael Lee Aday once said, "Two out of three 'aint bad".
  25. jkcarew
    I know it's easy to pile on Sano right now, and there's not much question Sano's future is trending decidedly down and Rooker's up. But just in an exercise in perspective, and also to remind ourselves that Sano is worth significant salvaging efforts...here is how Rooker's half-year at Chattanooga compares to Sano's half year there.. Sano, 22 years old, HR% 5.2; BB% 13.3; SO% 23.8; OPS 918 (Sano was coming off a missed year with Tommy John) Rooker 23 years old, HR% 4.3; BB% 6.9; SO% 28.5; OPS 813 Rooker seems to be making very steady progress, especially with the K rate. Encouraging.
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