What To Make Of All These Prospect Lists

In the 2016 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook, Jeremy Nygaard, Cody Christie and I did a ton of research on over 150 Twins minor leaguers. Upon completing that, we each posted our own individual Top 30 Twins Prospect lists. For all four of us we started the rankings with Byron Buxton, JO Berrios Max Kepler and Nick Gordon.

After those four, the three prospect lists branched off in various directions. We all read information. Jeremy researched by talking to many people who know the players well. Cody spent hours upon hours digging into the statistics from various sites and locations, considering improvements or decreases from the previous year. I talked to a lot of people inside the organization, outside the organization and in the industry.

We all could read each other’s paragraphs and information and yet, we all interpreted it a little bit different. We all have our “favorites,” guys that we like as prospects a little more (or less) than the other two. Many of you have read through the pages of this year’s (and previous years') prospect handbooks.

Steve Buhr and Ted Schwerzler posted their Top 15 Twins prospect rankings in the last month. Thrylos posted his Top 40 and has different criteria on what he considers a “prospect” than the others. Aaron Gleeman started his Top 40 Twins prospect series this week.

When Mike Berardino researched and wrote the Twins top prospect reports and rankings for Baseball America, I guarantee he made a ton of phones calls. Keith Law has a background in a front office, in scouting and now in TV for ESPN. He talked to, likely, some of the same people that some of us “locals” talked to, but he also certainly talked to many others. John Sickels has contacts all over baseball.

My personal opinion is that it is important to see these players in practice and in game action, if possible. I value the week that I’ve been able to spend in Ft. Myers, trying to keep up with everything that is going on on the minor league fields. I think it’s important to see pitchers work in the bullpen, during PFPs, and interacting with catchers. It’s good to see hitters during batting practice, but also hitting against live pitching. It’s good to see them run the bases and in the outfield. It’s good to see the work ethic and range or the infielders. It’s also good to see the people, their athletic level, and know that they’re much more than just box scores and stat lines.

All read, research, watch video and read stats to varying degrees. And there rarely, if ever, is any sort of consensus.

That’s why Keith Law can rank Kohl Stewart as the 53rd overall prospect in baseball this spring, fourth among Twins prospects, and I rank him as the 11th Twins prospect in my list. How does that happen? Well, some focus on Stewart’s lack of strikeouts in his two pro seasons. Others choose to focus on his strong arm, his athleticism, his strength, his ground ball rate and his pitches. Both would agree that how he winds up will depend on how he develops over the next three or four years.

It’s why I’m the only one who has Aaron Slegers in his top 30 (28th). I look at his height, his arm angle, his tremendous control, a solid three-pitch mix, and I think he can be a back-of-the-rotation starter. He may not get much taller, but he will likely continue to grow, and a 92 mph fastball could become a 94 mph fastball. We shall see.

Maybe the best example is Jermaine Palacios. While I ranked him as my #21 Twins prospect, Jeremy ranked him #10, and Palacios didn’t make Cody’s Top 30. Not many players come from Venezuela as an 18-year-old and completely dominate pitchers in both the GCL and the Appy League. Others will note the lack of walks. Some will notice that he had a ton of errors at shortstop and wonder if he can stay at that position.

Who is right? Right now there is no way at all to answer that question. In theory, we may have that answer in about five years. In reality, we may have to wait 20 or more years to really know who was right.

In fact, I guarantee that if we were all allowed access into the Twins organizational meetings following the season, we would hear differing opinions on each and every player. I guarantee there isn’t a unanimous opinion on any big leaguer or minor leaguer or free agent. Just like in every business, or in every family.

If I’ve learned one thing in my 12-13 years of watching, researching and writing about the Twins minor league system and prospect rankings in general, there is just one absolute. The lone absolute is that there are no absolutes. There are exceptions to every rule. There are non-prospects who become stars, and there are guys like Brandon Wood.

In 2006 and 2007, Wood was a clear Top 10 prospect in all of baseball. He was putting up huge home run totals in the minor leagues. He was touted as a future 40 home run per year hitter. In parts of five big league seasons he hit a combined 18 home runs. Yes, the same number that Miguel Sano hit in three months with the Twins last year.

Sometimes #1 overall prospects pan out. Joe Mauer certainly put together a career worthy of that lofty perch. Delmon Young was also the #1 overall prospect at one time. Jon Rauch was the #4 prospect in baseball in 2001. Baseball America’s 1995 Top 5 prospects were Alex Rodriguez, Ruben Rivera, Chipper Jones, Derek Jeter, and Brian Hunter. Three out of five is pretty good, but it is a reminder that they just don’t all make it.

So, what do these prospects rankings do for us?

Well, it allows us to dream. The Twins have had Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. Buxton has been a consensus top two prospect the last three years. Sano was a top ten prospect a couple of times and places. JO Berrios has moved up the prospect ranking ladder consistently since signing. Max Kepler’s tools finally kicked in. Jorge Polanco may not have a clear path to the Twins, but he can certainly hit, even if we don’t know where he’ll play. Top six picks like Buxton, Kohl Stewart, Nick Gordon and Tyler Jay provide plenty of upside. Consider also the relief pitching prospects that the Twins could have pitching for them within the next two years.

I’ve said this before, but it remains true. I look at the Twins minor league system, and I see arguably 30-40 players who could spend time in the big leagues. When you consider that there are 160-200 minor league players in the Twins system at any time, that may not sound like a lot, but it’s more than you’ll see in most organizations. Considering where the Twins minor league system was six to eight years ago, it’s even more impressive.

Let’s say there are 40 players that the Twins or fans think could get to the big leagues. The reality is that probably one and possibly two will become perennial All-Stars. Maybe five or six will become big league regulars, in the lineup most days or a starting pitcher. Another five or six will likely spend a few years in the big leagues as a role player, a utility player or sixth or seventh inning guy. Another seven or eight will get a proverbial cup of coffee. And that leaves around fifth to twenty that may not even get to the big leagues. Also, there are going to be five or six guys that will play at least a few games in the big league that right now today, we may not think will not play in the big leagues.

That’s why having a strong, deep minor league system is so important.

It is incredibly hard to get to the big leagues. It takes a ton of work and talent, and sometimes it takes the right situation and a little luck. Consider just how good a baseball player someone has to be to get as much as a cup of coffee in the big leagues. I mean frankly, imagine how good a ballplayer needs to be to get to Low A.

That’s the reason that I write the Twins Prospect Handbook. All of the players deserve to be recognized for what they do. It’s important. It’s deserved.

You may disagree with Kohl Stewart’s ranking by Keith Law. You may be right. Or you may not.

Who will have a better career Stewart, or fellow 2013 pick Stephen Gonsalves?

Will Tyler Jay be able to transition to starting, or will he wind up being a dominant reliever?

Will Alex Meyer pitch like he did in 2014 when he was one of the best AAA pitchers in baseball, or will he find a way to be successful in the bullpen?

Can Adam Brett Walker be a productive big league power hitter, or will the contact rate make that impossible?

Will Byron Buxton be a successful big leaguer because of his defense and speed and arm, or will he be able to hit well and become an elite, MVP-caliber player?

Can JO Berrios become a top of the rotation starter, or will he be more of a mid-rotation type?

In 2015, Max Kepler turned his tools into skills in AA, but can he take that next step and become a five-tool talent in the big leagues? Can he repeat his AA success in the big leagues?

Can Nick Burdi and JT Chargois harness their control and command and become a dominant eighth and ninth inning combination for the Twins in the not-too-distant future?

Can Taylor Rogers quickly make the transition from starter to a guy the Twins can rely on to get left-handed hitters out in the seventh and eighth innings? How quickly can lefties Mason Melotakis and Corey Williams get to the big leagues after Tommy John surgery? How will high-end pitching prospects like Lewis Thorpe and Fernando Romero return in 2016 from their Tommy John surgeries and return to game action?

The questions can go on and on when they refer to prospects. There are probably a half-dozen or more questions per minor leaguer. And for each there is no ‘Wrong’ answer, and there is only one ‘Right’ answer. That answer is “Maybe.”

But the best thing about prospect rankings for fans is the discussions that they encourage. They let us dream of what could be for Twins fans. They get us excited about the upcoming season and about what will happen with the Twins and throughout the minor leagues. Which prospects will take the next step? Which prospects will fall from prospect status? Which prospects will jump up to the big leagues?

So let’s look at the lists. Let’s see how people rank the Twins prospects, or the Twins farm system. Let’s discuss it. Are they right? Are we right?

Maybe.