What To Do With Michael Tonkin

What all of your statistics tell me is he actually pitched pretty well when allowed to pitch the way he has his entire previous career, as a 1 inning short guy.

Based on his stuff, precious milb success, and the stats offered up in the article, you'd think with his first full season complete, there would be something to build on for '17 and beyond if was just used properly. That would tell me to keep him.

But with so many guys to try to keep on the 40 man this year, someone closer to the situation and undoubtedly smarter than me will have to make that determination.

Every Twins pitcher should be doing some "experimenting" while this season is being "mopped-up". I haven't followed Tonkin close enough to know if/what he doing differently, but I tend to ignore results during this period. It will be in Spring training that I want to take a very close look at Tonkin to assess whether he has improved. If he hasn't, then waive him him. If somebody claims him, so be it. Else back to Rochester to see if he can't find a useful second pitch.

Keep him, make him your 6/7th inning guy.  

And preferably the inning with the fewest lefties.

Trade or nontender.

Sadly, he is one of those guys that it is doubtful that people are lining  to sign him. But if the Twins would move him off the 40-man, he would get a contract somewhere...even if he had to start over again at AAA. And he wouldn't return to the Twins.

Part of the problem here is you can't have a bullpen full of guys that can only be successful if used a certain way. Baseball games and seasons don't work that way. He's not good enough to close or setup so he's gonna have to pitch more than one inning fairly frequently.

Does he, though? In a seven man bullpen (much less an eight man), there's plenty of room for two guys at the bottom of the pen who specialize in throwing multiple innings. The 4-5 guys at the top can specialize in single inning appearances. That doesn't mean they never pitch more than one inning but in Tonkin's case, he's approaching 40% of his appearances being longer than a single inning.

I get your point but it still happens and he's not great against lefties. That makes his optimal window pretty small.

Honestly, this is another head scratching data point about a guy who can be so dominant in AAA but cannot seem to have anything more than short stretches of good play at MLB. Do keep in mind he wasn't bad through the first half of the year. I have to think that there's something going on at the coaching side of things. We shouldn't be redeveloping our players at the top level, and it sure seems like that's what we're doing (whether it's true or not, I don't know... but the perception certainly fits).

The most likely reason for him and others is that he isn't good enough. The hardest jump of all is to the big leagues and many players are weeded at at this level.

Meh, time to move on.  The article says he has a OPS of .786 during the first 25 pitches.  That's no great shakes.  Dude can't even hold a runner at first.

69.2 innings, 79 hits, 24 BB, 13 HR's, 40 ER's. 

He's 26 years old, so there's still a window of opportunity for Mike Tonkin.  It just should not with the Twins.

There are other options. 

The worse I can say for Tonkin:  he chewed up MLB innings so other MiLB RP's can get more innings in there.  Hope that works out  

Michael Tonkin ... the guy the Twins added to the 40 man roster way back in 2012, barely seeing MLB action since.  This in spite of his numbers being good enough to play and the Twins pitching getting mercilessly shred during that time period.  

Trade him.  The front office has already damaged the relationship with him beyond repair.  Since there is no numerical reason to have kept him down or on the bench for four years, the reason has to be the Twins classic "we don't like his approach or his attitude" rubbish.  Do the kid a favor and let him go to where a team will let him play.

Think about it folks.  The current Twins management would have kept Blyleven on the bench or kept him in the minors.  With Blyleven's famously noisy ass and hot-foot shenanigans, the Twins would have never let the guy play.  

They'll let him go, and he'll join another team that uses him in the right way and turns him into a nice setup man. Painfully predictable. 

This is what I fear is correct.   I hate to be so pessimistic, but there are only so many gut-punches a fan can take before expecting the kind of outcome Nick describes here.

With those k and bb rates, I'm giving him one more year. Or, at least another partial year, until Burdi, or Reed or someone is ready to come up.
If we were are playoff cobtender, I'd probably look to upgrade his spot. But I don't think we are so I'd wait one more year.

I'm not sure if you're offering opportunity or punishment.....

He wouldn't have made my staff out of Spring Training. If he can succeed elsewhere, good for him. No tears.

Meh, time to move on.  The article says he has a OPS of .786 during the first 25 pitches.  That's no great shakes.  Dude can't even hold a runner at first.

You don't have to hold a runner at first if they start at 2nd or 3rd.

Silver lining?

I'm fine with him as a 6th inning guy, but those relievers are dime a dozen. If he's cheap, keep him through arbitration. If they cut him lose, so what.

Tonkin is why I read K/9 and mph numbers with a grain of salt.