TD Top Twins Prospect Rankings (Post Draft and Trade Deadline): 15-11

I understand the excitement over Noah Miller, but as I have posted in the pass I want to see him perform in the minors before handing him such a high rank.  

I will be interested in the top ten since Celestino and Winder could not crack it.

Final thought - I like Wallner, he seems to be what the team wanted Sabato to be. 

Saw Winder a couple of times for the Surge, he was absolutely dominant. Love his build and his business attitude on the mound. Having seen him, Blaze, Duran and Canterino, Winder is by the most advanced and closest to helping out the big club. 

That is a heck of a nice list.  The Twins really liked Miller and hopefully he reaches his potential.  Seems to have Rock solid tools just need to see if some of those will be plus or not.

I like the write up on Strotman and I know very little about him since the Twins just got him but so far I haven't been overly impressed by his outings.  Feels like he needs more time.  Not saying he isn't good I just don't feel like he has been overly dominant and it takes that to make the jump to the big leagues.  It is late in the season and no one pitched normally last year so I am sure fatigue is part of it but just sayin he has looked OK not great to me.

Celestino has looked horrible at the plate in MLB but pretty darn good at AAA.  He and Rortvedt are tearing up AAA ball.  Once he can hit at the MLB level he looks like a lock in center.  He is no Buxton but still a solid defensive player.

I have been hard on Wallner in the past mainly because of the K rate being high and walk rate being fairly low.  Yet he does seem to barrel the ball well and has a 383 BABIP to show for it.  Still seems like there is likely regression but I have been saying that all year and he is still at a nice 886 OPS.  I can see now what the Twins saw and it is tantalizing but I think there is a fair bit of work to be done for that power to show up at the MLB level or else they will have Rooker II on their hands.

I don't have much to say about Winder other than he has dominated since A ball.  I do think he could start for the Twins right now.  Probably be an adjustment period but I think will be a good pitcher for them in the future.  Honestly I think he could be higher than this but I do like Duran, Balazovich, Canterino, and Ryan a lot as well and I assume those names will soon appear.

Will second most of Dman's comments, especially those about Strotman.  After another so-so start last night, not a good day to announce him at #14.  Personally, I would have him lower along with Wallner.  But again, Wallner was on fire for awhile until having several 0-for-whatever the last few games.  

On the other hand, I continue to believe that Winder may, I repeat may, be the best pitching prospect in the organization.  It's a shame he isn't pitching, but that was to be expected after not throwing an inning last year.  Speaking of last year, if memory serves he was not at the Alternate Site as you indicated...although I could be mistaken about that.

Won't lobby for Miller to be any higher than #15.  Well I think he should be ahead of Strotman, so maybe #14.  There is nothing I don't like about this kid and the Twins picking him where they did.  Considering he was a first round pick out of high school and his brother was a lower pick out of a small college, one would assume he is a much better prospect.  Yet, his brother progressed rather quickly to his big league debut with the Indians this year.  The genes appear to be there and I expect the Twins got the good one.  

Felt Winder should be higher.  Of all the Twins up and coming pitchers, I feel he and Ryan will be here first.  Ryan to possibly start next year and Winder shortly thereafter.  Winder may have to rotate between the Twins and Saints to keep his innings down, ramping the pitchers up after two short years is proving to be an issue.

I buy the "Winder is tired" argument, because his initial showing with the Saints was strong.

Then he pitched went to the Futures Game and struggled after that before being shut down. I think that fatigue played a role, after throwing so regularly with Wichita. I hope he can rest a bit and come back healthy, whether that's at the end of this season or the next, where I think there's a spot that he can win with the Twins if he has a good Spring Training.

It's an interesting group. I'm interested in knowing more about why the wide range between where FanGraphs is ranking Strotman vs MLB/Twins Daily; is it based on the assessment of talent in the system or on Strotman himself? I think Strotman is a really interesting prospect, but he probably has the widest range of outcomes of anyone on this list,

Celestino got called up way too early, but I still like his potential. Hopefully he finishes strong in AAA (which is where he should have been all along) and gets his confidence back up as a hitter. He's a solid defender and should be a factor soon. (Really interesting that he bats right and throws left?)

Winder is a guy I just want healthy and pitching. I know they're being cautious with him, and they should since he didn't pitch last year, but everything looks to be heading in the right direction if he stays healthy. He needs innings. But the results look great, and if he's the 11th prospect on your list...that's a pretty exciting top 10.

I was initially surprised that Winder didn't rank higher but upon further review I can see 11 making sense. I assume the top 10 includes Balazovic, Canterino, Cavaco, Duran, Lewis, Martin, Miranda, Petty, Ryan and Woods-Richardson in some order. I think you could easily justify ranking Winder as high as 5th in that group or as low as 11th, all depends on taste. Just an exciting group in general. 

Now that we're 2/3 through the list and the makeup of the top 10 is pretty clear I'm surprised Emmanuel Rodriguez didn't make the top 30. Pedigree as a top Intl FA signing is similar to Urbina, both are outfielders with lots of tools to dream on and a long ways away. Urbina put up impressive numbers in the DSL in 2019 and overall has been disappointing in Low-A. Rodriguez skipped the DSL and has been fairly impressive so far in the FCL. Did he get any consideration toward the back end of the top 30?

Miller may be the solid mid-west find from high school that got passed over.  Time will tell, but some scouts overlook players in mid-west due to lack of playing or lower competition.  It makes sense, but that leads to some guys getting passed on, from time to time.  

Here is to hoping he falls into that category and comes out next year turning heads, but he does not need to rush it either if he will take a lot of time. 

Wallner's 23 years old with a BB rate of only 7.3% K rate at A+ of 35%. Wallner shouldn't be in the top 30. Compared to Daniel Palka, same age, same level.

• D. Palka: .280/.352/.532 wRC+ 135 9.7% BB, 28.5% K
• Wallner: .277/.338/.555 wRC+ 137 7.3% BB, 34.4% K

I wouldn't say Wallner is absolutely a bust at this point, but he needs to make an enormous change in his plate approach.

I think it's perfectly fine to have Noah Miller at 15. He's projected as a shortstop and given high grades for his smoothness at the position. I honestly don't think there's a lot of difference between 15-30 in the Twins system. There's a lot of medium quality depth and it's hard to judge a lot of these players as significantly better or more likely to contribute than another.

I like Winder, don't like that he has pitched 72 innings and the talk is he is tired or fatigued. He turns 25 in less than two months.

How much do you take age into consideration for the rankings? Sadly if for some reason he would be done pitching for the year, it would be hard for me to consider him a top prospect since it is likely his age 25 season would also be about limiting innings, and wouldn't be until he is 26 that the expectations are he could go a whole season, seems very old for a prospect.

Also Strotman turns 25 in less than a month, if he isn't up real soon, he also seems a little old for to be considered a top prospect, doesn't mean he won't be a good major league pitcher, IMO just means he isn't a top prospect.

I guess one of the good things having your pitching prospects been on the old side is you probably never really have to pay them a ton of money, they will be 31 or older before they are due for free agency and it is super easy to explain why you aren't going to pay a boatload of money to a guy on the downside of their career.

Strotman really intrigues me. Has a good frame, good velocity and the makings of solid secondary pitches. He misses all but a handful of rehab games at the end of 2019 due to surgery, then misses allnof 2020, and skips over AA to head straight to AAA. 

He could be a real gem with just a little more time and patience. 

LOL at Miller being 15 and Strotman being 14.  Strotman has never shown much, but Miller hasn't shown the slightest, and he was generally ranked pretty low for where the Twins took him.  I wouldn't even put Chase Petty this high, not that he has any better resume.