TD Top Twins Prospect Rankings (Post Draft and Trade Deadline): 6-10

1 hour ago, whosafraidofluigirussolo said:

Yes to all that, but also, the absence of a slot value in the 11th round is exactly why teams will try to offer a bit more $ to get a better player there. Since the slot values only go through 10 rounds, signings after the 10th only count against overall bonus pools and aren't "over slot" per se, so teams will try to get perceived higher-upside players who are still left at that point and offer higher bonuses than in the previous few rounds. But it does make sense that there would be more risk of not agreeing on an amount with that strategy, and with earlier picks affecting how much pool money is left.

If Birdsell was ranked about 85th in the country before the season was having a great season before the shoulder issue. If he is able to return and pitch the same as he did to start this season, he's likely going to raise his draft stock into the top 2 rounds. Even if the Twins were willing to shell out $150k or something (slot for round 10), it's selling hugely low for Birdsell. The only way it's worth it for him to do that is if his shoulder is a permanent issue, which will take 2-3 years to really find out. In the meantime, he graduates college and gets a 3 year head start on his career. Not a lot of true personal risk to a sophomore college player until you get into that $250k+ range, I'd say.

I loved the pick of petty!!! His swag, confidence, high energy, high upside, electric arm! Everything! He’s the antithesis of everything about the TR years and the epitome of the very thing going forward! He’s got 2 mlb pitches right now it looks like. If he can clean up his delivery and add an average changeup(or splitter) he’s got the stuff to move fast and be a legit #1 or #2

I think there’s a good argument that Cavaco’s floor is as low as any prospect we’ve looked at in the top 30. Probably a statement both on the improved depth in the system, and the fact that Cavaco was a bit of a reach where the Twins took him, really hasn’t shown much at all in the early going…nor does he seem someone likely to stay at SS.

Just didn't have time to comment on the 11-15 list but have time now for this list. I think that we can even debate THIS list with the PREVIOUS list is pretty awesome. The simple fact that 1-15 seems so fluid/debatable in our minds is indicative of the overall talent and depth of the system despite "graduation" of several prospects in 2021. And I am NOT concerned about a few guys dropping a spot or two, It just further reflects the depth that still exists and the guys just brought in. 

I also pay little attention to age right now for some if these guys after a lost 2020. We have to realize virtually every prospect is a year "behind" where they would probably be RIGHT NOW without that missing season. So things are going to be skewed a bit, with no reflection in age.

Potential and talent vs proximity to the ML level and in season production will always be an understandable debate. But that's also why these are "prospect" lists and not "who is closest to helping" lists. Also why this is an amalgam list.

Cavaco: I'm OK with him at 10, though I might have slotted him a little lower. While his numbers aren't outstanding, the talent is there, and he is already leaps and bounds better than his rookie 2019 campaign. I think that's relevant. The FSL is notorious for being a tough hitting level. Is that good or bad thing for being the Twins A+ level? I guess if you can hit there, it should be that much easier to advance? The talent is there. I think he can stick at SS if he doesn't outgrow the spot. He's a few years away, but you can't deny the talent, A Javier clone if he stays healthy?

Petty: Looong way to go for this kid. But what I can't figure out is how a HS pitcher who hits 100mph and has a good slider, a good frame, and was committed to a top program, and has great projectability lasted so late? While I can't recall body type, how different is he from Greene, who the Twins didn't draft a few years ago? Kid is talented and confident and seems to have just the right amount of cockiness you'd love to have in a SP. Regardless, this was a tremendous value and I'm fine if be takes 5yrs to make it. Love the huge upside pick so late.

Canterino: One of my favorite prospects! Electric stuff that just needs a little more work and HAS to have a 3rd pitch to reach his potential as a SP. Some worry about his delivery. I'm not for 2 reasons. (And I'm NO expert)! He is comfortable with his delivery. He's been doing it for years now. He seems "herky-jerky"? Maybe I'm wrong, but his "herky-jerky" motions seem to come before a relatively easy release. He may be easy to steal on, but I just don't see the problem some talk about. And I think his recent IL stin is more in keeping with what we are seeing across milb and the system, guys just needing time off after missing a season. Easily top 5 mid season next year if he just stays healthy. 

Ryan: I just don't know enough about him before joining the Twins to say how accurate his ranking is or how to project him beyond what I've read and heard and seen to this point. Crazy as it sounds I'm giving him "moxy" points for his Olympic performance. He was pitching against mostly professionals in the Olympics. I think his stuff plays. I think his mental approach plays. Like every single SP prospect, you have to bring more than 2 pitches. And he will probably take some lumps initially. But he's been promoted in a quality organization who is known for pitching, you performed excellently on a world-wide scale, and your IP aren't too high. I'd be surprised if he didn't see time with the Twins to finish 2021.

Miranda: He was a high pick out of PR as a HS player. The only negative you ever heard about him was the power potential to develop along with a good eye and solid approach. He used 2020 and winter league ball to make something out of nothing. He is not a sudden surprise out of nowhere. He is a guy they've just been waiting to put it all together. He has. I get keeping him at AAA while Donaldson was missing time to continue development and success. But he absolutely needs and deserves to be up before this season is done. You just DON'T  deny a talented, young prospect with helium his opportunity! 

His greatest obstacle at this point is Donaldson. Can they move him this offseason and live with potential growing pains? Donaldson is still quality. Does he transition to 1B, despite depth there, or DH, again with depth there, and Miranda is initially a super-utility player? 

Keeping Donaldson for 2022 is a good thing. Moving him is also a good thing. Regardless, the Twins need to make room for the best and most immediate player in the system. 

LOVE the comments and the debate is legit.  My goodness we've acquired some interesting talent and had some prospects (Miranda) just "shoulder" their way to near the top of the list.  I don't like to do this, because it will be perceived as "lazy" but I'm glad I'm commenting right after Doc Bauer.  I agree with every point he made.  I want to see Miranda up with the big club soon.  Certainly by 9/1 or Labor Day.  Play him at 3B and 2B and get him plenty of AB's.  I want to see what he can do.

Promote Ryan along the same timeline.  Either start him, or give him the 8th inning.  I want to see what he can do as well.  I love Canterino's stuff, but he's not coming up, but Balazovic could/should get a start or three in September.  Some of these guys that have missed a lot of time this season, I'd love to get some Winter Ball innings in if it's feasible.  Duran, Canterino, even Balazovic.  40-man roster spots are going to be precious.  We still have a winter-off season to get Buxton signed and determine whether we can compete next year.  Guys like Thorpe/Smeltzer really do not factor in to any future plan.

Besides being a Twins number one pick what has Cavaco done to warrant such a high rating?

On 8/13/2021 at 11:41 AM, mk said:

I hope the Twins can find some space on the 40-man to protect Miranda from the Rule 5 draft this year.

Yeah, I doubt that will be an issue this time around. Pitchforks for everyone if that somehow happens.