Twins Minor League Report (5/16): Davis Powers Kernels

IMO it was a mistake to put Turley back down in AA. He's way too old for AA and is clearly dominating AA hitters. Will it play in AAA and beyond? Don't know. But I do know we won't find out with him continuing to strikeout 2 AA hitters every inning.

One could argue that Nik Turley has been more dominant in AA than Nick Burdi.  Think about that for a minute.

 

Get the man a player of the week award, Southern League.

Player of the Week?  How about the Month?   Wade would have to take a nose dive to not win it

Not to restate the obvious.

O.K.  I'll do it anyway.  Three homeruns for Davis, two of the go ahead variety.

What exactly do they have in Turley?  A rare find, or just an old guy dominating the kids?

I saw the box scores last night, and was worried Meija got hurt.  Didn't think about keeping him fresh for Saturday.

Not to restate the obvious.

 

O.K. I'll do it anyway. Three homeruns for Davis, two of the go ahead variety.

 

What exactly do they have in Turley? A rare find, or just an old guy dominating the kids?

 

I saw the box scores last night, and was worried Meija got hurt. Didn't think about keeping him fresh for Saturday.

Too early to say. That's why he needs to be at AAA. At almost 28, he does not belong in AA for basically two full months.

What did Wimmers do to get sent to Extended Spring Training?

What did Wimmers do to get sent to Extended Spring Training?

Other than being the 9th best reliever for the Red Wings, nothing.  Falvey and Levine need to start making decisions with regards to these arms in AAA.  They aren't helping anyone's development by shuttling people back and forth to extended spring.  There are only so many innings for these guys to pitch.  The FO needs to figure out which ones should be there and let them pitch.

For patient hitters, you can't totally separate on-base from power. If pitchers aren't worried about the hitter punishing them, they will just throw the ball over and take their chances. Wade has enough raw power that I think he has a decent shot at something like .270/.350/.420 - which begs the question of how good of a defensive corner outfielder he is/will be.

Struggled with control and keeping the ball in the ballpark. By the way, today he was assigned to Chattanooga.

Even more non-sensical than Turley. Wimmers is ALREADY 28. If Falvey doesn't think he belongs, RELEASE HIM. Keeping 28 year olds in AA makes zero sense.

Man, I know it's AAA video, but don't you think Rochester feels embarrassed to have video in 2017 that is 480p quality?! If it is that?  Wow, just terrible.

Not if he takes innings from Burdi or Bard or Melo or anyone else in AA that is a prospect at this point. 

 

Again, whether 1 decision makes sense, imo, isn't really the issue. It's all the decisions in context to each other that don't appear to make sense.

Exactly.  It's not just the roster spot.  It's the lost opportunity to pitch.  It's the same reasoning that was given to not start Engelb Vielma at AAA to start the season - there's no room.  Really?  Then MAKE room.  It's pro baseball.  Guys get released everyday.  It isn't pleasant to do and it isn't an easy decision, but sometimes it has to be done.

As for this case specifically, Randy LeBlanc could have stayed in AA and worked on his control problems there, not?  In as much as it is nonsensical to have 28 year olds at AA, it is just as curious to have a 25 year old in A ball, unless he's on a rehab assignment of course.  Nick Anderson is 26.  He probably doesn't belong in A ball either.  David Fischer is 27.  Really??  Frickin A ball?  Edit: OK, just noticed Fischer missed the last two years.  So that isn't SO bad, but still.

Wow, I guess I never realized how bad this situation was.  I get that on a typical minor league team there are probably 3-4-5 legitimate MLB prospects and the other 20 or so guys are simply there to essentially play around them.  I even get that the prospects will be a couple years younger than these "org filler" types.  But 25, 26 and 27 year olds shouldn't be in A ball.  Org filler or not.  If that is what they are, they can fill it at AA.  If there is no room there, move some org filler to AAA.  If no room there, that's when you send guys into the manager's office and have them shut the door.

This would be a good post for the "About that Farm System" Thread.  The Twins minor league garden needs to be cultivated, BADLY.  RAPIDLY.

I was struck by the fact that Tepesch gave up a number of unearned runs in this outing and did the same in the MLB outing.  The difficulty in ERA is that it misses many aspects of measurements for quality pitching.  Pitchers who consistently give up lots of unearned runs are poor pitchers in my mind.  Perhaps they create hard hit balls that lead to errors and even if not, they do not have the stamina to get that extra out.  I find it even more frustrating for evaluating relief pitchers who can give up runs to the players on base when they come in and get no impact on their era.  A relief pitcher should always have an ERA a run below starters.  

I know that Baseball reference has tried to assess pitchers differently, but they still fall short - http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_pitch.shtml

Another look at unearned runs and pitcher performance is found at http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/02/a_look_at_unear.php  The author says = "If my longheld belief is correct, groundball pitchers should give up more unearned runs than flyball pitchers."  and "I would agree with David [Gassko} and recommend that we pay more attention to total runs than earned runs. Oh, you'll still find me giving an ERA here and there, but recognize that run average (RA) is an even better gauge of a pitcher's performance than earned run average.

Secondly, as it relates to ERA, be aware that a pitcher with a high percentage of unearned runs is more likely to regress than a pitcher with a low percentage of unearned runs. Not surprisingly, pitchers in the top 20 table above have a higher DIPS ERA relative to actual ERA than those in the bottom 20."

I have not heard stats quoted about fielding independent pitching, but found this article quite interesting - http://www.hardballtimes.com/batted-balls-and-dips/

And finally I like this blog and the idea of Runs Allowed more than ERA - http://danagonistes.blogspot.com/2004/08/unearned-runs-whose-fault.html

Any other day and Chris Paul is probably your hitter of the day going 2-4. a walk, 2 runs, 3 RBI and walkoff HR.  Tough to surpass a 3 dinger night from Davis though.

I was struck by the fact that Tepesch gave up a number of unearned runs in this outing and did the same in the MLB outing.  The difficulty in ERA is that it misses many aspects of measurements for quality pitching.  Pitchers who consistently give up lots of unearned runs are poor pitchers in my mind.  Perhaps they create hard hit balls that lead to errors and even if not, they do not have the stamina to get that extra out.  I find it even more frustrating for evaluating relief pitchers who can give up runs to the players on base when they come in and get no impact on their era.  A relief pitcher should always have an ERA a run below starters.  

 

I know that Baseball reference has tried to assess pitchers differently, but they still fall short - http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_pitch.shtml

 

Another look at unearned runs and pitcher performance is found at http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/02/a_look_at_unear.php  The author says = "If my longheld belief is correct, groundball pitchers should give up more unearned runs than flyball pitchers."  and "I would agree with David [Gassko} and recommend that we pay more attention to total runs than earned runs. Oh, you'll still find me giving an ERA here and there, but recognize that run average (RA) is an even better gauge of a pitcher's performance than earned run average.

Secondly, as it relates to ERA, be aware that a pitcher with a high percentage of unearned runs is more likely to regress than a pitcher with a low percentage of unearned runs. Not surprisingly, pitchers in the top 20 table above have a higher DIPS ERA relative to actual ERA than those in the bottom 20."

 

I have not heard stats quoted about fielding independent pitching, but found this article quite interesting - http://www.hardballtimes.com/batted-balls-and-dips/

 

And finally I like this blog and the idea of Runs Allowed more than ERA - http://danagonistes.blogspot.com/2004/08/unearned-runs-whose-fault.html

I'm kinda on the fence on that.  It almost has to be taken case by case.  I guess a pitcher giving up a lot of unearned runs relative to his teammates would be a red flag.  Is something about the way he pitches causing fielders to be on their heels?  Control? Time between pitches?

On the other hand, if you have a minor league pitcher out there battling and he gets a guy to hit into what should be a routine end of the inning grounder, should he be faulted if a guy who will probably never reach the majors kicks it and a run scores?  If I'm that pitcher, I'm thinking to myself, "They make that play Up There".  If that happens just once every third start, that could be 8-10 unearned runs in a season.

I'm kinda on the fence on that.  It almost has to be taken case by case.  I guess a pitcher giving up a lot of unearned runs relative to his teammates would be a red flag.  Is something about the way he pitches causing fielders to be on their heels?  Control? Time between pitches?

 

On the other hand, if you have a minor league pitcher out there battling and he gets a guy to hit into what should be a routine end of the inning grounder, should he be faulted if a guy who will probably never reach the majors kicks it and a run scores?  If I'm that pitcher, I'm thinking to myself, "They make that play Up There".  If that happens just once every third start, that could be 8-10 unearned runs in a season.

I know that the articles tried to get in to this, but it is a tough one to analyze.  Tepesch jumped out at me because of this minor league report and his start for the Twins.  The three leading Runs vs Er pitchers this year are Tepesch, Tonkin and Hughes in that order. And last year it was Gibson, Duffey and Tonkin.  

I know that the articles tried to get in to this, but it is a tough one to analyze. Tepesch jumped out at me because of this minor league report and his start for the Twins. The three leading Runs vs Er pitchers this year are Tepesch, Tonkin and Hughes in that order. And last year it was Gibson, Duffey and Tonkin.

Well, now you're talking about MLB pitchers. That's different. Of course, for much of last year the Twins didn't have competent MLB defenders at a lot of spots.

Tonkin making that list surprises me because he has high K rate - relative to the staff anyway.