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Mike Sixel

By Mike Sixel
in Minnesota Twins Talk

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Oxtung First Round Pick

Oxtung

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Except you can score from third in a fly ball or grounds out.... So I would argue there are times to steal third. Unless I misread you post, which is possible.

Seems like a pretty simple math problem; all the data exists. I sure hope the Twins have taken the time to figure that out :)

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TFRazor First Round Pick

TFRazor

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" I started with it, I got rid of it, and brought it back,” Buxton said, saying that the changes along the way were “just to change” and came from “not trusting myself.”  "

 

Apparently, from pitch to pitch...

 

Um, not listening to his coaches?  Head case?  

 

Maybe Buck just isn't eating enough of those Sheboygan sausages he's always talking about

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Vanimal46 MVP

Vanimal46

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12:19
Matt Klentak: When does Ervin Santana’s FIP catch up to him? He constantly beats it by a large margin. Does this type of finger injury linger and effect his grip?

 

12:23
Jay Jaffe: So long as he’s able to limit the quality of contact — and he was in the top 10 in both Soft Contact % (high) and Hard Contact % (low) — and avoids pitching for any team that occupies a bandbox, he’ll outdo his FIP. I’d be a bit nervous about any finger injury as to how it affects a pitcher’s grip, but I don’t have much deep knowledge of the specifics here offhand.

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Vanimal46 MVP

Vanimal46

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Posted
Posted

KLaw chat going on right now....

Buckner 86

1:18 Does Jose Berrios take another step forward this year?  Can he be a top 20 SP?   Thanks

 

Keith Law

1:18 Step forward, yes. Top 20 SP, no.

 

Matt
1:18 Was Odorizzi really worth nothing?  Put up 5 WAR from '15-'16.  Hard to believe some SP-thirsty team couldn't do better than Palacios?

 

Keith Law

1:18 I believe i mentioned in a previous chat that his back issues are a major concern.

 

BD in DC
1:41 Are Lamonte Wade, and Brandon Lowe MLB regulars?

 

Keith Law
1:41 Neither.

 

Zachary
1:42 Twins starting shortstop in 2021 is Jorge Polanco? Nick Gordon? Royce Lewis? Wander Javier? Yunior Severino? Or someone else?

 

Keith Law
1:42 I believe if you asked them, they'd say Lewis. I still have real doubts about him staying on the dirt; he has a LONG way to go, based on what I saw (and area scouts also saw) last spring.

 

Brett
1:54 Do you think Buxton continues his progression in 2018 and has a better year than 2017?

 

Keith Law
1:54 Maybe a small improvement, but even a repeat of 2017 would be great, given where he seemed to be last April or in mid-2016.

 

http://meadowparty.com/blog/

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Dantes929 GCL Twins

Dantes929

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Seems like a pretty simple math problem; all the data exists. I sure hope the Twins have taken the time to figure that out :)

Pretty sure you would always rather have him on third but yes the reward vs risk should be considered.   Of course you have to factor in his success rate and not the general success rate since if he can steal 3rd base 100% like he pretty much does with 2nd then he should..   I wonder how often he was on 2nd with less than two outs.    They really should figure in stolen bases to OPS, since he is essentially getting the equivalent of doubles on singles and walks.    

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Brock Beauchamp GOAT

Brock Beauchamp

Administrator
Posted
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Over for sure on the HR. SB? That might be harder to reach.

Injury is the main concern. If you extrapolate his 2017 to 600 plate appearances, his stolen base total was 37. If he's better than he was in 2017 - pretty likely - he should able to cross 40 stolen bases pretty easily if he stays on the field.

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Mike Sixel Cooperstown

Mike Sixel

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In retrospect, not a good trade.....

 

RSO
2:00 RAB boldly predicted that Aaron Hicks could have a 7+WAR. Crazy or realistic?

Keith Law
2:00 That seems high but I'm also a longtime believer in his ability and a 5 WAR season seems entirely reasonable if he can just stay healthy.

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Drew College Ball

Drew

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In retrospect, not a good trade.....

 

RSO
2:00 RAB boldly predicted that Aaron Hicks could have a 7+WAR. Crazy or realistic?

Keith Law
2:00 That seems high but I'm also a longtime believer in his ability and a 5 WAR season seems entirely reasonable if he can just stay healthy.

 

 

JR Murphy is just one 4.8 WAR season away from a 5 WAR career so, I mean like, don't give up the dream. Stranger things have happened, probably. 

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diehardtwinsfan Minnesota Twins

diehardtwinsfan

Community Moderator
Posted
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jp
1:00 Are you buying in on Buxton's gains at the plate in the second half?  You taking the over or under on 15hr/40sb?

 

Travis Sawchik
1:01 Over and over

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/travis-sawchik-fangraphs-chat-53/

 

There was a time when players could get 100 SB... given how fast Buxton is, I'd think 40 is pretty reasonable. Main criteria is getting on base and having no one in front of you. Buxton was caught so little that I have to think he should be running a lot. 

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jkcarew GCL Twins

jkcarew

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Posted
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JR Murphy is just one 4.8 WAR season away from a 5 WAR career so, I mean like, don't give up the dream. Stranger things have happened, probably. 

Early word is that JRM is primed for a 5-WAR season.  In fact, Jerry Narron is counting on it.  Unfortunately, Jerry Narron is the manager of the Reno Aces.

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Mike Sixel Cooperstown

Mike Sixel

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THE Average Sports Fan

9:12 On the CF list, where you more surprised the Mets were 3rd or that the Twins were 6th?

 

 

Jeff Sullivan

9:12 The Mets came up quicker than I expected, but the projections pretty heavily regress baserunning and defense, so I see how Conforto wound up elevated above Buxton. Buxton's best skills are likely to be underappreciated by a projection system

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Brock Beauchamp GOAT

Brock Beauchamp

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Posted
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The Man With No Name
10:22 Suppose you're a team and can choose between Lynn's and Cobb's contracts.  Gotta be Lynn, right?

 

Jeff Sullivan
10:23 Absolutely
Even though I do like Cobb more, I don't like him that much more

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-3-23-18/

Yep and yep. I had a slight preference for Cobb but at that price, Lynn is the no-brainer.

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Mike Sixel Cooperstown

Mike Sixel

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Tyler
10:29 Which team has a sneaky good offence and which has sneaky good pitching
Jeff Sullivan
10:29 Twins/Cardinals
10:30 or A's/Rockies, if you prefer
kevinthecomic

 

10:30 Regarding the Jays, projections don't just look at how good a team is, they also look at strength of schedule.  The Jays are almost certainly better than the Twins and the Twins almost certainly have a better chance of making the playoffs than the Jays.
Jeff Sullivan
10:30 Even on our schedule-adjusted playoff-odds page, the Jays are projected to finish two games better than the Twins https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?lg=lg&date=pre

 

The schedule narrows the gap between the two, but it doesn't dissolve it

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jorgenswest Cedar Rapids Kernels

jorgenswest

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Posted
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A couple of Kyle Gibson sightings this morning

 

From MLB on throwing fewer fastballs

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/fewer-fastballs-may-work-for-these-5-starters/c-269499070

 

And this bold prediction from Tristan Cockcroft - Kyle Gibson will strike out more than 170 batters while posting an ERA below 4.00

 

http://www.espn.com/fantasy/baseball/story/_/id/22843749/fantasy-baseball-tristan-bold-predictions

 

I can’t endorse the bold prediction, but I am intrigued by his performance in the second half last year when he went with the slider more often at the expense of his fastball.

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Squirrel GOAT

Squirrel

Community Leader
Posted
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KKAW has an insider column on nine players he thinks will be better this year, in a breakout way. Kepler it's one of them, thinking 25 bombs and average OBP, losing much of his platoon issues.

Who/what is KKAW? ;)

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Squirrel GOAT

Squirrel

Community Leader
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A new scout, specializes in flying over fields for a new perspective.....

The athletic has an article on Buxton and his ability to hit better. Not sure it drew any conclusions....

Way to top my smart ass poke ... you did not disappoint.

 

 

Sounds like some kind of bird.

 

Yeah, Mike's was better, but okay to this. ;)

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Monkeypaws GCL Twins

Monkeypaws

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Posted
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There was a time when players could get 100 SB... given how fast Buxton is, I'd think 40 is pretty reasonable. Main criteria is getting on base and having no one in front of you. Buxton was caught so little that I have to think he should be running a lot. 

If he could learn to bunt and take walks, 100 would be within reach.

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