Twins Daily Top 20 Prospect Countdown: 16-20

I could see Reed in the pen this year, that slider is NASTY

I'm a big fan a Turner. Two things really obscured how well he did last year. First, the Florida State League depresses batting stats and makes them look worse than they really are. Second, his slow start had everyone down on him right away. Despite the terrible start, he still ended up with league-average production in the FSL (101 wRC+), which is pretty good for a defensive-minded catcher. I think if his season had gone in reverse - started with 3 months of .787 OPS and then struggled to finished out the year - the entire narrative would have changed and there would be more hype about him. I wished he walked more, but he did limit his strike-outs pretty well. I'm really excited to see how he does in AA this season, as he might be my sleeper pick for this coming year.

I must be a REALLY slow typist, as Markos beat me by 30 minutes! But anyway...

First off, let me STRONGLY state that this is not an anti-Garver post, I am just using his developmental trajectory for comparisons... 

I will also state that, as we have discussed about ABWII, there is no shame being ranked #17 on a very deep minor league system.

However, I don't know why there isn't more love for Stuart Turner. IMHO, I think there is even more excitement for Mitch Garver (which may be born out later in this list), who is a year older and put his numbers up at a lower level.  This really befuddles me! I understand that Garver cannot control where he is placed, but his offensive numbers are the main reason people are excited about him.

If nothing else, you would think Turner would be the poster-boy for those who are looking for rapid prospect advancement. Here is a player starting his first full season at High-A, in the pitching (and ballpark) friendly FSL. He played excellent defense at the games most demanding position (catcher), and started >70% of his teams games (93 games total or ~4.5 games per week). In comparison, Garver started  <50% of his teams' games at catcher (63 games total, or ~2.9 per week).

And while the main question about Turner entering the year was whether he would hit enough to make his defensive prowess acceptable, he performed quite well after his slow start, as Seth pointed out. While it might be hard to see how good Turner's post-May 19 .787 OPS is, consider that the top OPS in the FSL was .816 and Jorge Polanco led the non-LF/1B crowd with a .780 OPS. While still not the offensive force that Garver was, Stuart proved much more than adequate. His peripheral numbers (SO rate <20%, W rate >10%, higher OPS with RiSP) also portend future success. He even had several game-winning hits and was awarded the leagues 'offensive player of the week'  the final week of the FSL season.

I personally think that, given positional bias, his future WAR is likely to be greater than Rosario, Polanco or Garver (because of position uncertainties) and also ABWII (because of the low floor). Like so many of our prospects, this year at AA will be a make or break year (in terms of being a top prospect, anyway)!

With Vargas, Pinto, Mauer, and maybe Sano at 1st Base/DH, where do we see Minier and Diaz playing in 2018-20? Yes, I know it is not exactly the most pressing issue, and the Twins could probably trade one or more if we end up having the problem of too many slow, power bats, but it is worth considering.

Also, Turner has the floor of a major league backup catcher, but whether he is good enough to start will depend on whether or not he hits like Butera. I'm not at all convinced he will be an adequate starting catcher in 2017. When it does come time for the Twins to flip Plouffe, Escobar, or even Dozier later this year or next, I'd like to see them do it for a higher-ceiling catching prospect.

He doesn't have to hit much to be valuable. In 2014, the median team OPS out of catcher was ~.675.

Fair enough, but Butera has a major league career OPS of .505. :-) True, he had a minor league OPS of only .607, compared to Turner's minor league OPS of .707 so far, but Butera's OPS was better than that through A+ as well. In fact, Butera's OPS in the Florida State League was a .765. I think Turner will likely end up being a better hitter than Butera, and if he is a league average hitter for catcher, that would be fine with his defense. But that's not a given at all

.

Hypothetical: If Turner has .280/.350/.425 first half in Chattanooga and Suzuki gets injured and needs to miss significant time, is Turner the guy that comes up?

Yes, I think so, but I'd be (pleasantly) surprised by those numbers.

Hypothetical: If Turner has .280/.350/.425 first half in Chattanooga and Suzuki gets injured and needs to miss significant time, is Turner the guy that comes up?

Sounds good to me!

I think the fact that the Twins chose to start him (again, at a very difficult position) at High-A in his first full season indicates they are not too worried about how struggles will affect his development. Similarly, I don't think they were worried about calling Jorge Polanco up for a short time in 2014.

I would also imagine how he responded to his initial FSL struggles would strengthen the Twins assessment of his mental makeup.