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  • Twins Daily 2020 Top Prospects: Recap

    Nick Nelson

    By Nick Nelson

    We've spent the past couple weeks profiling our picks for the Top 20 (and beyond) prospects in the Minnesota Twins organization. Now, as spring training gets underway in earnest, these exciting young talents will bring the team's minor-league complex to life.

    Let's step back and take stock of the Twins' system as it stands entering the 2020 season.

    Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp

    Twins Video

    Twins Daily's Top 20 Twins Prospects of 2020

    20. Jose Miranda, 2B/3B: Strong infield D and contact swing keep him on Top 20 radar.

    19. Cole Sands, RHP: Tremendous pro debut in 2019 with 5-to-1 K/BB ratio in A-ball.

    18. Travis Blankenhorn, 2B/LF: The innate power is finally starting to show up in games.

    17. Misael Urbina, OF: Standout athlete flashing every tool as an unrefined teenager.

    16. Edwar Colina, RHP: Big arm, wicked slider. If he keeps sharpening control, watch out.

    15. Matt Canterino, RHP: Freshly drafted righty shows big potential with funky delivery.

    14. Matt Wallner, OF: Former MN prep star fared well during first exposure to pro ranks.

    13. Wander Javier, SS: Disastrous 2019 season doesn't fully diminish shortstop's shine.

    12. Gilberto Celestino, OF: Skills came together during spectacular second half in A-ball.

    11. Lewis Thorpe, LHP: Keeps missing bats at the highest levels. His upside endures.

    10. Blayne Enlow, RHP: Progression has been gradual, but steady. Could turn a corner.

    9. Brent Rooker, OF: Immense power just might offset K's and lack of defensive value.

    8. Keoni Cavaco, SS: All projection at this point, but toolsy teen offers plenty to dream on.

    7. Ryan Jeffers, C: Two-way standout at catcher has impressed at every stop through AA.

    6. Jhoan Duran, RHP: Hard-throwing whiff machine could impact 2020 Twins as a reliever.

    5. Jordan Balazovic, RHP: Sturdily built sterling performer has makings of a long-term SP.

    4: Brusdar Graterol, RHP: The now-departed young flamethrower was an ultra-rare talent.

    3. Trevor Larnach, OF: Hits for average and power, shaping up as prototypical star RF.

    2. Alex Kirilloff, OF: Remains one of the best pure hitters in the minors. Handled AA at 21.

    1. Royce Lewis, SS: Pure ability too blinding to look past, but there is work to be done.

    POSITIONAL BREAKDOWN

    C: 1

    IF: 5

    OF: 6

    RHP: 7

    LHP: 1

    Two obvious areas of deficiency in the breakdown above: catcher and left-handed pitching. That's not by coincidence – they are notoriously tough spots to amass impact talent – but I don't see these scarcities as particularly alarming for the Twins.

    Pitching is pitching. Yeah, it might be nice to have a few more southpaws in the mix, but a righty-heavy staff isn't such a detriment right now for the Twins, and the MLB-ready Thorpe looms large as a lefty threat.

    As for the catcher position, Ben Rortvedt is right on the fringe of this list in our honorable mentions, and in the Graterol trade, the Twins acquired a 20-year-old catcher named Jair Camargo who is at least kind of intriguing.

    https://twitter.com/jimcallisMLB/status/1227029116152668167

    Oh, yeah... Graterol.

    THE LOSS OF GRATEROL

    After tabulating votes two weeks ago, we had our Top 20 list fully compiled and finalized. Rollout on the site was already underway when news of the Kenta Maeda trade surfaced. At that point, our options were to reset on the fly, or just run the rankings as planned. We chose the latter, because it seemed valuable to provide context as to what the Twins gave up for Maeda. Graterol was, from our panel's view, the organization's No. 1 pitching prospect before departing.

    But those rankings didn't necessarily reflect a future in the bullpen, which now seems firmer than ever. And even with all the noise filtered out, Graterol wasn't separated from Balazovic or Duran by much. The Twins have developed three upper-echelon – albeit not quite elite – pitching prospects, giving them the luxury to part with an undeniably stellar talent like Graterol.

    And, if you're wondering which player now slides into our Top 20, with everyone else bumping up a spot in his absence? It's Rortvedt, who was just mentioned.

    FEELING THE DRAFT

    Graterol wasn't the only valuable asset Minnesota lost in the Maeda trade. The Twins also forfeited their Comp B pick in the coming MLB Draft (67th overall), and based on how they've drafted as of late, this could deprive them of a pretty special player. Scouting director Sean Johnson is running a ridiculously effective unit for Minnesota.

    The top three players on our prospect list (Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach) are first-round picks from successive years (2016-2018). All are consensus Top 100 guys. That says a lot. The Twins have also shown some ability to unearth gems beyond the first wave, like prospect No. 10 Enlow (76th overall), No. 9 Rooker (39th), and No. 7 Jeffers (59th).

    Add in the fact that signing Josh Donaldson cost the Twins their third-round pick (99th overall), and the toll taken on this year's draft class by these win-now moves is considerable. You won't find me complaining, but it's something to keep in mind.

    WATCH THE THRONE

    The top two spots on our list remain unchanged from last year, but Lewis and Kirilloff have definitely loosened their grips – especially Lewis at No. 1.

    His youth, athleticism, pedigree, and makeup were enough to keep the shortstop locked in as the leader and our list, and he's still in a healthy position on most national rankings. But between the scant production last year – .236/.290/.371 with poor plate discipline – and the echoing questions concerning defense and swing mechanics, there's vulnerability here.

    Any number of players from the list could plausibly take over that top billing a year from now. Kirilloff, Larnach, Balazovic, and Jeffers feel most viable to me, if Lewis were to slip. Of course, there's also a plenty good chance Lewis rebounds in a huge way to re-stake his claim among the game's elite young talents.

    WHERE THEY STAND

    Baseball America released its ranking of MLB farm systems last week and had the Twins eighth. Bleacher Report has them sixth. By just about any measure, Minnesota boasts a top-10 system in the game, with a majority of its best talents rapidly approaching MLB-readiness. With the Twins bursting through their contention window, the timing could not be better.

    Strap in folks. Fun times are ahead.

    On a final note, I'd like to say that while I was researching and compiling entries for this series, two of my most invaluable resources were Tom Froemming's YouTube channel and Twitter page. If you enjoy Twins minor-league coverage and aren't following both, I highly recommend doing so. Tom puts together so much awesome video content and analysis.

    PAST TWINS DAILY TOP PROSPECT LISTS:

    TD 2019 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects

    TD 2018 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects

    TD 2017 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects

    TD 2016 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects

    TD 2015 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects

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    Nick is a co-founder of Twins Daily who's been writing about the team for more than 15 years.
    Follow Nick Nelson on Twitter: NickNelsonMN

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    Featured Comments

    gunnarthor

    gunnarthor 11,234

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    *whispers* Actually Bill Smith was in charge when the Twins made their most impactful IFA moves... 

    *whispers back* But Ryan still gets blamed for the Smith drafts ...

     

    In all honesty, while 09 was an a great year it's also worth remembering Polanco and Kepler were not top international prospects. Both of their signing bonus were in the top 20 that year but not in the top 15. A reminder that the international signings are a real big crap shoot but also that those two worked their asses off to become solid ball players (no point in arguing over which development team should get credit).

     

     

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    Brock Beauchamp

    Brock Beauchamp 39,328

  • Administrator

    • Posted

     

    *whispers back* But Ryan still gets blamed for the Smith drafts ...

     

    In all honesty, while 09 was an a great year it's also worth remembering Polanco and Kepler were not top international prospects. Both of their signing bonus were in the top 20 that year but not in the top 15. A reminder that the international signings are a real big crap shoot but also that those two worked their asses off to become solid ball players (no point in arguing over which development team should get credit).

    Ryan unfairly gets credit and blame for those drafts depending who you talk to that day.

     

    Personally, I give him neither credit nor blame for much of anything under Smith's tenure, though he certainly influenced some decisions.

     

    But you're right that Polanco and Kepler get a ton of credit for the work they put into becoming MLB ballplayers.

     

    To swing this back around to the current front office, I don't know if I'd give them too much credit for either Polanco or Kepler, as both players were making real inroads to becoming legitimate MLB players before this front office came around.

     

    But I don't need to look any further than Mitch Garver to see how this front office has improved the team. There's no way in hell previous front offices would have put the coaching staff on the field and the methodology in place to turn a tweener like Garver into possibly the best overall catcher in Major League Baseball.

     

    In my opinion, the conclusive evidence everyone seems to be searching for in this thread begins and ends with Garver's improvement.

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    wabene

    wabene 3,027

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Six out of seven years of top five picks should lead to some talent. I never understood the moves made under TR and I don't miss those days. This new group's moves make sense to me and I feel especially excited given how many bad, hopeless years I sat through.

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    gunnarthor

    gunnarthor 11,234

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    Six out of seven years of top five picks should lead to some talent. I never understood the moves made under TR and I don't miss those days. This new group's moves make sense to me and I feel especially excited given how many bad, hopeless years I sat through.

    Actually it would probably be better if we divided up the moves - a lot of the transnational moves - trades, drafts, etc have left me a bit cool and that's probably more about Levine. Some other stuff - institutional matters, promoting Sean Johnson and Brad Steil, some coaching changes etc are probably more Falvey and I'm more confident in.

     

    I hated the fact that the FO threw up the flag at the deadline in 17. I hated that we kept Molly around an extra year. I don't like that we got taken in the Pressly trade or the sub-optimal returns on most of the trades we've done.

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    bird

    bird 6,083

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    *whispers* Actually Bill Smith was in charge when the Twins made their most impactful IFA moves... 

     

    The club's success in IFA is highly attributable to Billy Smith, Jim Pohlad, and Andy MacPhail. It's that threesome that convinced Obstinate Carl to approve a massive new budget that included both capital expenditures and budget room to greatly expand the international scouting ranks. It wasn't until the Twins established a beachhead in the DR and began nurturing relationships with the buscones that things started to look up, and that took years! Credit Billy Smith for very competently overseeing the physical facility stuff. Credit Ryan for hiring and retaining scouts with the talent to build relationships. Credit scouts like Fred Guerrero for uncovering and negotiating and then recommending the financial offers. Just don't simplistically and wrongly give sole attribution for ANY of these signings strictly on the basis of who held the GM position when. It's truly a distortion of the picture and void of meaningful context. Give credit for the right things, I say.  ;)

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    Nick Nelson

    Nick Nelson 11,044

  • Owner

    • Posted

     

    Just don't simplistically and wrongly give sole attribution for ANY of these signings strictly on the basis of who held the GM position when. It's truly a distortion of the picture and void of meaningful context. Give credit for the right things, I say.  ;)

    It all filters up to the top. Personally I use the GM's name as a shorthand referencing the operations in place during their tenures, for which they were accountable. I'm not naive enough to think that Ryan or Smith was solely responsible for any draft picks, IFA signings, or developmental successes/failures. But they built and oversaw the groups that made it all happen.

     

    Bottom line is that baseball ops was a total and complete mess during TR's second stint. That's how you lead the game in losses over a five-year span. He has to wear that. I don't think it's a controversial statement. The other poster's assertion that there's "hatred" for Ryan being expressed is quite dramatic. Myself, I look back on him very fondly, both for the person he is and what he built in the 2000s. But the 180-degree turnaround we've seen in the past 3 years makes it all the clearer how bad things had gotten by the end. 

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    Riverbrian

    Riverbrian 32,096

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    Sano and Polanco were signed while Smith was the GM, Developed while Ryan was the GM and deployed for maximum benefit while Falvey and Lavine are in charge. They all get credit. 

     

    But while we waited for Sano, Polanco, Kepler and everybody to get here. We endured an extended dark age that didn't need to be so extended. 

     

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    DocBauer

    DocBauer 14,431

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Sano and Polanco were signed while Smith was the GM, Developed while Ryan was the GM and deployed for maximum benefit while Falvey and Lavine are in charge. They all get credit.

     

    But while we waited for Sano, Polanco, Kepler and everybody to get here. We endured an extended dark age that didn't need to be so extended.

    This.

     

    At this point, it is about today and future tomorrows. Any mistakes or blame to anyone for any dark ages of drafting and development are moot. They are over and done. Just being honest, the jury will be out on the FO for a couple more years as virtually anyone they have drafted or acquired as a prospect has yet to reach the ML level.

     

    Early returns for development look very good for our current FO. Early returns on player acquisition outside the draft look very good. But for me, I am hopefully and enjoying what we are seeing and will refrain from any sort of judgment for another year or two.

     

    But yeah, I like what I'm seeing thus far.

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