Twins Daily 2019 Top Prospects: #7 Jhoan Duran

Prospect status is obviously heavily weighted on throwing hard and/or how much money they have invested in the guy. Forget the mediocre numbers in low level ball amirite? We have to have wishful thinking because we can’t possibly be wrong lol

I totally understand the ranking status vs Gonsalves. Gonsalves has mediocre stuff that could be successful with excellent control. There is the rub: he doesn’t have it and hasn’t throughout his minors career. He has to develop much better control or he is a AAAA pitcher

I repeat what others have said, and I have before as well, just way too early to get bent out of shape on Gonsalves after a few bad rookie outings. Reminder: his last few appearances as the "primary" looked much better. On top of that, he has adapted and excelled at every level he has reached. And his control problems in 2018 were not season-wide, it seemed to come in stretches, where in other stretches his control was just fine. I believe his ceiling is a #3 who should settle in very nicely as at least a quality #4-5. But let's give him more than a few rookie appearances before we decide he can't cut it shall we?

Right or wrong I tend to look at Alcala and Duran as 2 sides of the same coin. Probably because they both came to us last season in trade and we haven't watched them "grow up" in the Twins organization. But from all I have read, they both bring serious heat and have questions about secondary offerings, but with potential. Alcala, a bit older and having reached AA ball, I guess, strikes me as the more likely to end up in the pen. Is that fair? Probably not. I admit to being influenced by his numbers once he came over, as well as the video Tom shared, to think Duran may have more time/potential as a quality SP.

Fair or not, just kind of where my head is at.

I understand your argument, but at some point there has to be a balance between stuff and statistics. I was disappointed to see that Gonsalves tops out at 91, doesn't have pitches that can strike out MLB hitters, and also has poor command. It's not that I've totally given up on him, but he looks to be a 5th starter or a decent reliever if things go right in my eyes. He's done a great job in the minors, but unlike Berrios I don't know if his stuff will let him be more than a AAAA pitcher.

 

Conversely, if Duran can put things together, he has the stuff to be a great starter. I could see him being a #2 starter if everything goes right, though mostly throughout his career, it hasn't gone right.

Danchat, I went back to the 2018 write-up of Gonsalves (he was ranked #4 in the system by TD at the time) and I found an interesting comment in the comment section:

“I'm hoping to see Gonsalves by July in the majors. From what I've read, it seems he'll slot in as a #3-4 starting pitcher. Having the young core of Berrios (#2), Gonsalves (#3), and Mejia (#4) and seeing them perform up to their talent levels would be huge for this team. Now if they only had a true ace...

“I am concerned about the recent trend of rookie starters for the Twins. This includes Kyle Gibson (10 starts, 6.53 ERA), Trevor May (9 starts, 7.88 ERA), Jose Berrios (14 starts, 8.02 ERA). Mejia's first 10 starts were OK (4.93 ERA). The only good recent rookie starter I could find was Tyler Duffey (10 starts, 3.10 ERA) and it's been all downhill from here.

“The Twins will have to be patient with Gonsalves... sophomore years have been much better for our starters.”

........

That comment, of course, was by you. I agree with you. Patience!

Danchat, I went back to the 2018 write-up of Gonsalves (he was ranked #4 in the system by TD at the time) and I found an interesting comment in the comment section:

 

“I'm hoping to see Gonsalves by July in the majors. From what I've read, it seems he'll slot in as a #3-4 starting pitcher. Having the young core of Berrios (#2), Gonsalves (#3), and Mejia (#4) and seeing them perform up to their talent levels would be huge for this team. Now if they only had a true ace...

 

“I am concerned about the recent trend of rookie starters for the Twins. This includes Kyle Gibson (10 starts, 6.53 ERA), Trevor May (9 starts, 7.88 ERA), Jose Berrios (14 starts, 8.02 ERA). Mejia's first 10 starts were OK (4.93 ERA). The only good recent rookie starter I could find was Tyler Duffey (10 starts, 3.10 ERA) and it's been all downhill from here.

 

“The Twins will have to be patient with Gonsalves... sophomore years have been much better for our starters.”

 

........

 

That comment, of course, was by you. I agree with you. Patience!

1: I didn’t know Gonsalves topped out at 91 and regularly threw pitches in the upper 80s

2: Gonsalves developed a command problem this season, not sure if that will continue

So yes, I do think he’ll pitch much better in year two, but he has several issues to address. Anyways, thanks for keeping me accountable.

Seen a man standin' over a dead dog lyin' by the highway in a ditch

He's lookin' down kinda puzzled pokin' that dog with a stick

Got his car door flung open he's standin' out on Highway 31

Like if he stood there long enough that dog'd get up and run

Struck me kinda funny seem kinda funny sir to me

Still at the end of every hard day people find some reason to believe

When I dug into Duran after we acquired him, this article is what really started to pique my interest in him as a prospect.

The gist of the article is that he started having success last season when he began fully buying into coaching and the process of transforming himself into a pitcher, rather than just a thrower. And that's a huge development for me when it comes to pitching prospects.

Nice, digging up my old posts and using them against me! I probably should be more patient, though I will defend myself with these two points:

 

1: I didn’t know Gonsalves topped out at 91 and regularly threw pitches in the upper 80s

2: Gonsalves developed a command problem this season, not sure if that will continue

 

So yes, I do think he’ll pitch much better in year two, but he has several issues to address. Anyways, thanks for keeping me accountable.

It was a little heartless, I have to admit, but I couldn’t resist. I certainly don’t want to have to account for my past assertions! (I seem to recall a strong Tulowitzki post or five). Thanks for taking it in the right spirit.

Gonsalves might have a lower upside than people thought a year or two ago, but, I think people are reading too much into 24IP.

It was a little heartless, I have to admit, but I couldn’t resist. I certainly don’t want to have to account for my past assertions! (I seem to recall a strong Tulowitzki post or five). Thanks for taking it in the right spirit.

Gonsalves might have a lower upside than people thought a year or two ago, but, I think people are reading too much into 24IP.

I think one problem some of us (me) might have had is we see really good numbers in the minors, so we assume that'll transition in the majors. I remember being excited to see how AJ Achter would pitch with the Twins after a very good minor league career, but he simply didn't have MLB caliber stuff.

I hope Duran goes full on beast mode this year!