Twins Daily 2019 Top Prospects: #2 Alex Kirilloff

Very exciting.  Some motivation for Kepler and Buxton.  

Well, there won't be much drama as to who the #1 TwinsDaily prospect will be.

I guess the only intrigue is who will get to write up the story....Tom, Cody, Seth or Nick?

A 362/.393/.550 slash line in the FSL...a pitcher's league.  Not too shabby.

Great article. And yes, Royce was rated as a 65 FV on the Fangraphs top 130 that came out today, so that will be exciting too. A fantastic top two for the Twins.

I was more impressed by the comment on Fangraphs that gave Kirloff a 15 - 20% chance to be the next Joey Votto.  That is very high praise, now we shall see.  I could see him being here if he starts in Pensacola between late 2019 and May 2020.  One publication had him moving Kepler to first base or 4th outfielder or trade bait.  Can't wait to see how he turns out. 

I really hope he starts in AA and just dominates for the first couple of months to earn a promotion. Once he makes it to AAA it’ll only be a matter of time before we get to see him with the Twins.

The number that blows my mind is 44-doubles in a five month minor league season.  Unbelievable!

I think there is a good chance your ETA is wrong.  If he has a year at AA anything like last year, we gotta see him by September at the latest.  Could be earlier if one of the starting three is out with an injury.

 

About another prospect, you said stats are just a piece of the puzzle. Here, you seem to be saying that stats alone will be what figures in his promotion. Can you clarify for us mortals when we're ok to consider stats, and when we're not?

“Prospect rankings, however, typically have very little to do with the stats, though they do obviously factor in.

And, I would hope people have not given up on Gonsalves at all.

But Duran's upside is top of the rotation starter. That's why I rank him higher. That's'why I have Graterol ranked higher.”

You'll have to remind me when I said stats are just a piece of the puzzle, because that is 100% true and I have probably said that many times. It is especially true in the lower levels.

I think your latter statement was just hyperbole and we shouldn’t hold you to it, especially in the broader context of all of the great work you do tracking down and writing up all of the Twins prospects that we all like to follow during the dog days of winter (buy the prospect handbook!).

All that said, I am still a bit perplexed how you feel like you aren’t considering stats that much when you go from ranking Gonsalves #1 in the system after an amazing statistical season in A+/AA, to #2 in the system after an exceedingly good statistical season in AA/AAA, to #11 after a similarly excellent statistical season in AAA with a 24 bad inning promotion to MLB. To me it looks like stats were a pretty big driver for those rankings.

And to bring the conversation back to Kiriloff, as this is in the Kiriloff forum, let me point out the glaringly obvious fact that Kiriloff went from last year being unranked nationally but “he’s a great pure hitter” to this year, after an amazing statistical season, ranked in the top 20 nationally.

To me, it looks like it was his stats over the past year that made up 95% of those ranking changes. (94.8%, to be exact.)

If he has two great months, there's a very good chance he never sees AAA.

Is a .333/.381/.525 two month slash line good enough? Or are those go to AAA numbers?

I'd personally have AK 1 at this point. He's got the pedigree to go with the gaudy numbers. His bat plays more than Lewis's I think.

That said, his Babip was really pretty high last season. He probably needs a few more walks, to turn on a few more pitches, and to turn more of those doubles into HR in order to sustain his momentum. If his value is peaking and we see him as Kepler 2.0, well we've got a lot of tough decisions coming up.

It seems like there is a big difference between saying stats are “just a piece of the puzzle” and “rankings typically have very little to do with the stats.”

I think your latter statement was just hyperbole and we shouldn’t hold you to it, especially in the broader context of all of the great work you do tracking down and writing up all of the Twins prospects that we all like to follow during the dog days of winter (buy the prospect handbook!).

All that said, I am still a bit perplexed how you feel like you aren’t considering stats that much when you go from ranking Gonsalves #1 in the system after an amazing statistical season in A+/AA, to #2 in the system after an exceedingly good statistical season in AA/AAA, to #11 after a similarly excellent statistical season in AAA with a 24 bad inning promotion to MLB. To me it looks like stats were a pretty big driver for those rankings.

I think he said stats become more important as you climb the ladder which would bear out with your Gonsalves example.

Stats...smatz...AK is an awesome hitter. Can't wait to see him and the other Twins' prospects and players in 1 week   at spring training. I can see it now. I'll be standing by a fence. watching practice. Suddenly a ball comes over the fence. I pick it up and throw a strike to home plate. A coach says: "Hey kid, come here. Where did you get that arm. Let me see you do that again" I throw another strike with movement. He puts me on the mound...same result. Castro is called over. He says he's never seen both speed and movement like this. The radar gun is reading 103. Excuse me TD reader, my office phone is ringing. Maybe it is Thad. I'll get back to this daydream later.

So does he get to wear #47, or is that just too obvious?

And to bring the conversation back to Kiriloff, as this is in the Kiriloff forum, let me point out the glaringly obvious fact that Kiriloff went from last year being unranked nationally but “he’s a great pure hitter” to this year, after an amazing statistical season, ranked in the top 20 nationally.

To me, it looks like it was his stats over the past year that made up 95% of those ranking changes. (94.8%, to be exact.)

His absence from a lot of lists last year is a result of the injury. with no information about his development, a lot of people are going to significantly downgrade a prospect until they get back on the field. It's not a crazy decision either, sort of like giving someone an Incomplete rather than a letter grade. he made some national lists after his first season and now he's surged up the lists.

71 extra-base hits in 130 games.  SEVENTY-ONE!!!!!

Thinking back to 2015 we had a few top prospects that got yanked from double A and slammed into he daily lineup. Most of these guys unfortunately we are still waiting on. Having them learn at the big league level hasn't worked out too well.

For the Twins sake (and mine as a fan) I hope we don't drag the next crop out of the field too early. I would prefer to see a ready to go Kiriloff in 2020 then watch him come up in 2019 and flounder for 2-3 years. The same applies to others.

I'm a little surprised at least one of you didn't have Kirilloff 1 and Lewis 2. Everybody must REALLY love them some Royce Lewis, 'cause I don't think Kirilloff is far from the show if he rakes in AA. Can hardly wait to see what these guys do this year.

Thinking back to 2015 we had a few top prospects that got yanked from double A and slammed into he daily lineup. Most of these guys unfortunately we are still waiting on. Having them learn at the big league level hasn't worked out too well.

 

For the Twins sake (and mine as a fan) I hope we don't drag the next crop out of the field too early. I would prefer to see a ready to go Kiriloff in 2020 then watch him come up in 2019 and flounder for 2-3 years. The same applies to others.

I agree with you, we were bringing up our top prospects too early. That lead to the ouster of TR because of our disastrous 2016 season. He compounded it, by having no plan B. 

Not that they were seriously considering it, but I feel that Kirilloff's potential is a reason (there are several others) that the Twins would not pursue Bryce Harper.