Twins AFL Report (Week 5): Julien and Martin Continue Hitting

Bring both to Target Field - Martin in LF and Julien at 2B.  Make the best deal for Polanco and Keplar as possible.  Bring in two RPs, a catcher, one of the Big Four SS, and see what money you have left over for souvenirs at the winter meetings.

I forgive you, Steve, thank you for the much awaited report. Looks like Julien is wresting away the MVP away from Martin.

Another question, why didn't Martin play in the All-star game? Because SS & CF are high profiled positions maybe he got nosed out by a full time SS & CF where Martin split time between the 2?

Prediction: Given good health, Julien, Martin, Lewis, Wallner, and maybe even Lee (for Lee it’s just timing as he has the biggest upside of this group) will be on and contributing to the big club by the the end of August.

That means Kepler, Polanco, and Urshela will be gone. Celestino will be in AAA. 

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Prediction: Given good health, Julien, Martin, Lewis, Wallner, and maybe even Lee (for Lee it’s just timing as he has the biggest upside of this group) will be on and contributing to the big club by the the end of August.

That means Kepler, Polanco, and Urshela will be gone. Celestino will be in AAA. 

That would be great.  Let's add Varland and SWR pitching effectively by that time as well.

BTW ... Julien was OB 4 out of 5 ABs last night.  He could be Arraez with more power and better base running.  Obviously, the AFL is not MLB but we can dream, can't we?

This looks like the Twins prospect might be trending in the right direction. This week was a solid week for everyone. Yes, we expect Martin and Julien to play at this level, but I didn't think they would play ABOVE that level. I would believe both of these players will see Target Field sometime next year. Maybe Martin gets up to be our 4th OF as a RH batter. Julien is in a predicament because he doesn't field very well, according to metrics. So using him as a utility is typically not the best idea. Which throws a wrench into things if Kirilloff comes back and Arraez is not our regular 1B. But there are a lot of if's to go with these statements.

Now maybe is Isola is showing us that he should be given a ST Invite next season. It might actually be a good fit. He can play 1B when we need him and he can back-up Jeffers (assuming we don't sign anyone from FA) when Jeffers needs a day off.

It will be really nice having these guys over in Saint Paul next year as depth incase starters go down ..

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

That would be great.  Let's add Varland and SWR pitching effectively by that time as well.

BTW ... Julien was OB 4 out of 5 ABs last night.  He could be Arraez with more power and better base running.  Obviously, the AFL is not MLB but we can dream, can't we?

Julien doesn't profile as anywhere near the hitter Arraez is, so I don't see that being much of a comparison. Their OBP should be pretty similar though!

10 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Bring both to Target CHS Field - Martin in LF and Julien at 2B. 

FTFY

2 hours ago, Devilsadvocate said:

Julien doesn't profile as anywhere near the hitter Arraez is, so I don't see that being much of a comparison. Their OBP should be pretty similar though!

I didn't mean to suggest they were exactly the same.   I agree he won't hit for the same average but his OBP could be even higher and he should hit for quite a bit more power.  So, could he equal or even greater offensive impact.  IDK and I wouldn't bet on it but it's an intriguing possibility.

10 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I didn't mean to suggest they were exactly the same.   I agree he won't hit for the same average but his OBP could be even higher and he should hit for quite a bit more power.  So, could he equal or even greater impact.  IDK but it's an intriguing possibility.

There is one other aspect of both of these kids, Julien and Martin, games that isn't talked about enough.  And that is speed.  I want the Twins to begin running again.  Put pressure on the other team's D and steal a lot of bases, especially with the bigger bags.  Adding Lewis to this duo and I say bring the pirana's back.  Loved watching those teams back whenever.

11 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Bring both to Target Field - Martin in LF and Julien at 2B.  Make the best deal for Polanco and Keplar as possible.  Bring in two RPs, a catcher, one of the Big Four SS, and see what money you have left over for souvenirs at the winter meetings.

Let's calm down a little. I'm a big fan of both players, but the AFL is roughly AA from a competition/talent level and neither Julien or Martin have ever played above AA at this point. That's a big jump. I'm perfectly fine with moving on from Kepler, since we have a barrel full of LH corner OF options, and it seems unlikely that Kepler will ever have a year like 2019 again without a juiced ball (although ending the shift will help a few of his bouncers to the right side bleed through next season). but Polanco is a very different case. he had a down year, but still had an OPS+ of 117 and should get back some of his power with better health. Tossing him in favor of the unproven tandem of Julien/Martin seems foolish, especially since Polanco is still on a very good contract.

It will be especially interesting for Julien if baseball moves to an automated strike zone by the time he reaches MLB. Might help him stay good in terms of controlling the zone. If his power production from the AFL translates for him next season, he could be a monster at the plate.

I'm really glad to see Martin having a strong AFL season. His lack of power in Wichita this season was concerning, and it's good to see him back to showing elite contact skills but with a little more pop behind them. Still a small sample size, but it suggests that maybe the approach he's working with right now can be successful for him, especially with his speed. I think he should start in AAA, but he's definitely someone that should push Celestino if he has to move off the infield long-term.

I have trouble assessing the pitchers the Twins sent to the AFL; when you only have 10-15 innings to judge a player that stats aren't as helpful. It doesn't take much to blow up someone's ERA, WHIP, etc. Shreve seems to be making a case for himself, though? Maybe he's the next Laweryson.

5 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Prediction: Given good health, Julien, Martin, Lewis, Wallner, and maybe even Lee (for Lee it’s just timing as he has the biggest upside of this group) will be on and contributing to the big club by the the end of August.

That means Kepler, Polanco, and Urshela will be gone. Celestino will be in AAA. 

As the team heads for 100 losses again.

11 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Bring both to Target Field - Martin in LF and Julien at 2B.

For the Saints maybe, LOL.

1 hour ago, Steve Lein said:

Thank you! It is appreciated, haha!

I don't think Martin was there at the time. I don't have a confirmation or anything of this, but I think he had something more important going on off the field ?. He was back in the lineup yesterday.

Did you get your deer? Or shall I say a succesful deer season?

Edouard Julien might be a huge diamond in the rough kind of guy. He fell to 18th round, and never was considered a top guy, but all he has done since being drafted is hit. He will be a guy that will work the count and take a ton of walks.  I think his power has been a surprise for the Twins as he has hit 17HR last year, 18HR this year with 5 at AFL.  In college he hit 17 his first year, but then 10 his second year.  That really hurt his draft status I am sure. 

I do believe another poster stated up higher , remember thses are pretty much AA games and players, which is a long, long, long way from Big League challenge.

IF any one has shown long term superior talent, he would spend a few weeks in Minor Leagues before give a shot at the Bigs, WITHOUT having to replace an injured player.

I watched Julien hit quite often this past year and he has improved tremendously. i think he will be a better bat than Miranda was this past year for Minnesota. Julien can also steal a base and is a savvy base-runner. Of every minot league bat I watched this summer, Julien was the most impressive. He has begun to hunt his pitch even if it comes early in the at bat and fouls off a ton of very tough pitches. Yes, he will strike out but he hits the ball hard and works over a pitcher about as good as anyone. Julien could be ready soon. His glove is not horrid just not above average.

9 hours ago, RpR said:

For the Saints maybe, LOL.

 

Thank you for your predictable response, Mr. Negative.

5 hours ago, RpR said:

I do believe another poster stated up higher , remember thses are pretty much AA games and players, which is a long, long, long way from Big League challenge.

IF any one has shown long term superior talent, he would spend a few weeks in Minor Leagues before give a shot at the Bigs, WITHOUT having to replace an injured player.

Both of these players have spent years, not weeks, in the minors already.  So using your own logic, it's time to give them a shot at the Bigs.

17 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Both of these players have spent years, not weeks, in the minors already.  So using your own logic, it's time to give them a shot at the Bigs.

They are not good enough to move up, yet, if  ever.

Brunansky was in major league by age 21; Hrbek  by age 22; Gaetti and Gagne  by age 23, they had the talent to start early, and did.

If these Minor league rookies were talented enough for the Bigs, at this point , they would be there.

24 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Thank you for your predictable response, Mr. Negative.

Reality is not what wishful thinking wants it be , most often.

9 hours ago, RpR said:

They are not good enough to move up, yet, if  ever.

Brunansky was in major league by age 21; Hrbek  by age 22; Gaetti and Gagne  by age 23, they had the talent to start early, and did.

If these Minor league rookies were talented enough for the Bigs, at this point , they would be there.

Brunansky spent 3+ years in the minors, Gaetti spent 3 years in the minors, Hrbek spent 2+ years in the minors, Gagne spent 4+ years in the minors. Julien has spent 2 years in the minors. It's not just about age.

and remember, Gagne sucked in his first couple of attempts in the majors (and got sent back down), and Gaetti didn't hit in MLB until his 5th season in MLB either.

Hrbek was the wunderkind who was ready at a young age and little experience. Brunansky was successful in MLB out the gate at a young age, but also had a lot of minor league experience. 

Julien will very likely start the year in AAA and get his first shot in MLB some time during 2023, depending on injuries. 

Martin and Julien would give the Twins some speed, combined with Buxton. Not sure when would be ready for 2023 play, but the future looks bright. Throw in Wallner as a future outfielder, and suddenly the Twins have trade chips in Larnach, possibly Kirilloff, Polanco, Kepler, Urshela.

I say go with the future and youth in 2023. It would allow Pohlad to save (make) money, and who knows what potential will bring.

The only question is - where do we end up playing Brooks Lee if he, too, is the real deal? 

20 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

Martin and Julien would give the Twins some speed, combined with Buxton. Not sure when would be ready for 2023 play, but the future looks bright. Throw in Wallner as a future outfielder, and suddenly the Twins have trade chips in Larnach, possibly Kirilloff, Polanco, Kepler, Urshela.

I say go with the future and youth in 2023. It would allow Pohlad to save (make) money, and who knows what potential will bring.

The only question is - where do we end up playing Brooks Lee if he, too, is the real deal? 

Are you saying go youth on the offensive side in the last year of Gray, Mahle and Maeda?

3 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Brunansky spent 3+ years in the minors, Gaetti spent 3 years in the minors, Hrbek spent 2+ years in the minors, Gagne spent 4+ years in the minors. Julien has spent 2 years in the minors. It's not just about age.

and remember, Gagne sucked in his first couple of attempts in the majors (and got sent back down), and Gaetti didn't hit in MLB until his 5th season in MLB either.

Hrbek was the wunderkind who was ready at a young age and little experience. Brunansky was successful in MLB out the gate at a young age, but also had a lot of minor league experience. 

Julien will very likely start the year in AAA and get his first shot in MLB some time during 2023, depending on injuries. 

Very true but the four,  Combined  , played a toatal of 56 games first years in the majors before they showed they belonged there; Miranada and Larnach have played, combined , 215  games and have not shown the total ability they belong in the majors.

MIranda's fielding AA level and Larnach's batting average is too close to the Mendoza line.

The boys from this article have to prove they can avoid those detriments , when they do,  they may be called up.

Two of the rookies called up this year showed they should be in , at best , AAA, the Twins cannot afford to be the equivalent of a AAA training ground.

I get the praise for Julien, I think he will be a MLB-caliber hitter, but Martin has a long ways to go to prove he belongs. I find it hard to ignore how poorly he was playing at points in his second go-around at AA. IIRC Celestino did the same thing last year, bad 4 months then got hit late… turned out his bat wasn’t MLB ready in 2022. Let’s see Martin hit .300 at AAA for at least a month and then we’ll talk.