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Age: 25 (DOB: 9/23/89)
2014 Stats (AAA): 98 IP, 2.85 ERA, 1.163 WHIP, 94/39 K/BB
(MLB): 45.2 IP, 7.88 ERA, 1.774 WHIP, 44/22 K/BB
ETA: 2015
2014 Ranking: 10
What's To Like
Since debuting as the Phillies 28th best prospect in 2009, according to Baseball America, May has spent the next six off-seasons wearing the “Top 10” label. His repertoire has largely stayed the same: the large-bodied right-hander features a low 90s fastball, a low-to-mid 80s changeup and both a 75-to-77 mph curveball and a slider in the low 80s. Combine that four-pitch mix with the fact that, up until missing a month last summer with a calf strain, May had never missed a start in his professional career, and you have the makings of a solid, back-end starter. May has also had a penchant for striking hitters out, too, supporting a 10.4 K/9 through his seven professional minor league seasons. In the high minors (AA and AAA), that number has dropped to a still-impressive 9.1.
What's Left To Work On
Though May offers a four-pitch mix, durability and high strikeout rates, there are two pretty significant roadblocks preventing him from becoming a top-of-the-rotation starter: inefficiency and lack of control. In his 45 2/3 inning MLB cameo, May averaged 18.67 pitches per inning. That’s about two pitches per inning higher than his year in AAA (16.11). To put that in perspective, Kyle Gibson (15.61 pitches per inning) and Phil Hughes (14.52) averaged much less. That’s the difference between going five innings in a start and the seven innings a team would love to get from their starter. The knock on May since his pro debut has been one of the reasons the pitch-count gets so high: walks. He has improved through time, though not enough, from 5.4 BB/9 in his 2010 full-season debut to 4.7 BB/9 in AA in 2012 to 3.6 BB/9 in his 98 AAA innings this year. His MLB debut saw him put up a 4.3 BB/9.
What's Next
There are two Trevor Mays you’re probably familiar with. The Trevor May who we all felt bad for on that summer night in Oakland. The Trevor May who labored through two innings and 63 pitches with only 28 strikes. The Trevor May who walked seven A’s batters.
Then there’s the other Trevor May. The Trevor May who dominated AAA. The Trevor May who mowed down 10 Chicago White Sox without walking any. The Trevor May who was selected to pitch on the Target Field mound at the Futures Game. (He missed the game with the calf injury.)
There are plenty of reasons to believe that we’ll see Trevor May secure the fifth and final rotation spot this spring. May will be under the tutelage of Neil Allen, who wants his pitchers ramped up to throw well over 100 pitches. May can look to #1 starter Phil Hughes who set an MLB record for lack of walks. And, finally, the Twins were in a similar position last spring before the guy (Kyle Gibson) with a rocky debut the previous season took hold of a rotation spot, the exact position that Trevor May is in coming to Fort Myers in 2015.
If May fails to lock up the last rotation spot, the Twins will be in an interesting position: send the 25-year-old back to AAA, a level he owned last year, or move him to the bullpen.
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