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Age: 21 (DOB: 4/19/1994)
2015 Stats (Illinois): 66.2 IP, 5-2, 1.08 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 76/7 K/BB
ETA: 2016
2015 Preseason Ranking: NA
What’s To Like
Where do you want to start? How about striking out over a batter an inning? Or barely walking anyone? Statistically, it’s all to like.
But let’s get behind those stats and look at the stuff. Jay has what Keith Law calls “plus-plus control.” He throws his fastball in the mid-90s and has both a wipeout slider and a power curve ball. His change-up is his worst pitch, but has shown flashes of brilliance. All told, there’s nothing not to like about Jay’s left arm and what he can do with a baseball.
That repertoire has been dominant in the bullpen - both in college and for Team USA - but you don’t invest the sixth overall pick and nearly four million dollars into a relief pitcher.
What’s Left To Work On
It’s not so much that Jay has things “left to work on,” but more so that Jay has a few things he’ll need to prove. First, Jay does not have a typical pitcher-build. He’s only 6’ 1”. He’ll need to prove that he can get downhill plane on his fastball. Second, for Jay to reach his ceiling as a top-of-the-rotation starter, he’ll need to prove first that he’s a starter. He hasn’t done that much in college and the game he did start against Vanderbilt was the least successful outing of his college career.
Typically the transition from a starter to a reliever is difficult. Pitchers don’t know how to prepare themselves to be ready to pitch every day. For Jay it’s going to the be opposite, learning how to pitch every five days. Of course, this year the plan is for Jay to work exclusively out of the bullpen, with the transition happening this fall and next spring.
What's Next
Tyler Jay agreed to terms with the Twins and signed quickly for $3,889,500, exactly slot for pick #6. In his press conference, Terry Ryan talked about how he would be used in a relief role and would start out with the Fort Myers Miracle (High A-ball). Jay’s name was included in the initial GCL Twins roster on Monday, but was officially promoted to Fort Myers on Tuesday. The next step for Tyler Jay: his professional debut. So what happens after that debut?
"We don't want to get too carried away with innings," Terry Ryan told the media at Jay’s press conference. "I'm not going to give you a number. We're certainly going to monitor it. Because I know that I'm going to hear from you guys if I give you a number and he goes 1/3 over it. I'm going to keep it at that. We'll monitor his innings."
There have been many Brandon Finnegan comparisons. For those unaware, Finnegan went from pitching for TCU last spring to pitching for the Royals in the World Series. That would be the ultimate fast-track. Could Jay help the Twins down the stretch if necessary? Sure. Would that change their long-term plan for him? Absolutely not. Would there be implications service time-wise and with his options? Minimal. If he’s up for September and the playoffs, he’d get 30 days of service - and we already know he’d start next year in the minors to stretch out - so his free agency wouldn’t be affected. If he’s in the minors, he’d be on an optional assignment. That also wouldn’t matter because, in the event his three options are used in the next three years, he’d qualify for the special fourth option because he wouldn’t have five years in yet as a professional.
Regardless of what happens for the rest of this season, the Twins finally have a left-handed pitcher who isn’t too far from helping the major league club.
TD Top Prospect #10 - Alex Meyer
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TD Top Prospect #8 - Eddie Rosario
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