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  • Seth's Preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospects: Part 4 (21-25)


    Seth Stohs

    Today, my preliminary Top 50 Minnesota Twins prospect countdown continues with prospects 21 through 25. This is an interesting group in which the word “potential” is the key. The average age of these five players is just 20, and that is with a 23-year-old in the group. Three of these players began the season at extended spring training and one missed the entire season. The similarity among the group is a lot of talent.

    Image courtesy of Seth Stohs (photo of Jake Reed)

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    Previous installments of this prospect ranking:

    · Part 1 (41-50)

    · Part 2 (31-40)

    · Part 3 (26-30)

    As a quick reminder, players eligible to be on this list include players who remain eligible for Rookie of the Year voting in 2016. That is to say, hitters with less than 130 at bats and pitchers with less than 50 innings. (The list is preliminary. Following research for the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2016 - which Cody Christie, Jeremy Nygaard and I are working on - I’ll provide my final Top 30 prospects list.)

    Top Prospects 21-25

    #25 – Fernando Romero - 20 – RHP – Did Not Pitch

    Signed out of the Dominican in November of 2011, Romero debuted in the Dominican Summer League in 2012. In 2013, he came to the States and posted a 1.60 ERA with 47 strikeouts in 45 innings. After beginning 2014 in extended pring training, Romero came up to Cedar Rapids where he made three starts before experiencing elbow pain. Soon after, he was shut down and had Tommy John surgery. He missed the entire 2015 season, though he returned for Instructional League. He was again throwing in the mid-to-upper-90s as he had before surgery. He has a couple of different breaking pitches at varying speeds and a changeup, though they are works-in-progress. It will be interesting to see if Romero starts the season in Cedar Rapids, or it they keep him in Florida until the weather warms up.

    Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2015 (25), 2014 (28)

    #24 – Jermaine Palacios - 19 – SS – GCL Twins/Elizabethton Twins

    It seems like every minor league season, there is a player or two who jumps from relative obscurity in the lower levels of the minors to an intriguing prospect that people are talking about. Jermaine Palacios fits that category. Signed by the Twins in 2013, he spent the 2014 season in the Dominican Summer League. He came to the States for spring training and began his season in the GCL. In 26 games, he hit a robust .421/.472/.589 (1.061) with nine doubles, two triples and a homer. He was promoted to Elizabethton where he hit .336/.345/.507 (.852) with 14 doubles, two triples and two home runs in 31 games. Palacios can play all three infield positions though he primarily played shortstop in 2015. After having just four errors in 202 innings at shortstop in the GCL, he had 16 errors in 263 innings at Elizabethton. He’s got a lot of developing to do, but he will go into 2016 – likely heading to Cedar Rapids – as one of the more intriguing prospects to watch.

    Previous Top 30 Rankings: N/A

    #23 – Jake Reed - 23 – RHP – Chattanooga Lookouts/Ft. Myers Miracle

    Reed, the Twins fifth-round pick in 2014 out of the University of Oregon, set the expectation bar really high after his debut season of professional baseball. After signing, he posted a 3-0 record with a 0.29 ERA (1 earned run) in 31 innings. He gave up just 11 hits and three walks while striking out 39 batters. He went to the Arizona Fall League where he was again very good. In 2015, he skipped Ft. Myers entirely, starting the season in AA Chattanooga. However, he really struggled and a week into August, he had a 5.56 ERA and a WHIP of 1.54. He was sent down to Ft. Myers for a month and gave up no earned runs in 12.1 innings. He returned to the Lookouts for a couple of games and their playoff run. Blessed with a mid-90s fastball and a bunch of movement on this pitches, Reed can use the 2015 season as a learning opportunity that will hopefully take him to the next level. He will likely return to Chattanooga to start the 2016 season.

    Previous Top 30 Rankings: 2015 (18)

    #22 – Sam Gibbons – 21 – RHP – Cedar Rapids Kernels

    Signed in 2011 out of Australia, Gibbons went 4-1 with a 2.29 ERA as an 18-year-old in 2012. For some reason, he returned to the GCL in 2013 and went 3-3 with a 1.91 ERA. He moved up to Elizabethton in 2014 and was 4-5 with a 3.88 ERA. After beginning the 2015 in extended spring training, he moved up to Cedar Rapids at the end of May. In his first six starts, he was 3-2 but posted a 5.34 ERA. Then in his final nine starts, he was 4-2 with a 1.54 ERA. The keys were that he dropped his walk rate by nearly a walk per nine innings and increased his strikeouts by about 1.5 per nine innings. He has very good mechanics and touches 93 with his fastball. He also has a curve ball and a changeup.

    Previous Top 30 Rankings: N/A

    #21 – Lewin Diaz – 18 – 1B – GCL Twins/Elizabethton Twins

    Diaz was the Twins' big international signing in July of 2013. He stands 6-3 and is often compared to David Ortiz. He had been an outfielder, but the Twins immediately moved him to first base. He is big and very powerful with the potential to hit a lot of home runs. He spent the 2014 season in the Dominican Summer League and hit .257/.385/.451 (.836) with 13 doubles and five homers. Though he didn’t come to the States for spring training, he did arrive for extended spring training. He began with 33 games in the GCL where he hit .261/.354/.369 (.724) with seven doubles, a triple and a home run. He was promoted to the Elizabethton Twins for their final 14 games. He hit just .167 but three of his eight hits left the park. Diaz is a candidate to start the season in Cedar Rapids, though it’s also very possible that he will report to extended spring training.

    Previous Top 30 Rankings: N/A

    So, what do you think of Part 4, Prospects 21-25? We'll be back tomorrow with Part 5.

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    Palacios is almost scary. Forget the errors. They happen for young infielders and for lots of reasons. To hit that well this soon is scary. He could be scary good. Or we could be scared if he was a one season wonder.

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    Palacios is almost scary. Forget the errors. They happen for young infielders and for lots of reasons. To hit that well this soon is scary. He could be scary good. Or we could be scared if he was a one season wonder.

     

    What's encouraging about his performance, particularly in Elizabethton was his young age. It's not like he was a 21 year old putting up great numbers against other 20 and 21 year olds in the league. He definitely put himself in the One To Watch category.

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    What's encouraging about his performance, particularly in Elizabethton was his young age. It's not like he was a 21 year old putting up great numbers against other 20 and 21 year olds in the league. He definitely put himself in the One To Watch category.

     

    Seth, have you had a chance to see him in action much?  I haven't bothered to find video yet, but those pictures that Bob Sacramento published... looks like an absolute stud, athletically speaking. Is there a reasonable chance that he can stick at SS, or is he likely to grow out of the position? 

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    All but one of these players was unknown to me and I wonder how they rank where they do over some I have heard about.  I especially wonder how Fernando Romero can make #25 when he did not even pitch last year. 

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    Seth, have you had a chance to see him in action much?  I haven't bothered to find video yet, but those pictures that Bob Sacramento published... looks like an absolute stud, athletically speaking. Is there a reasonable chance that he can stick at SS, or is he likely to grow out of the position? 

     

    Just in spring training, and he was playing a lot of 3B then, but I've been told that he could play short. He had a lot of errors this year at short, but that's not unusual at the level. 

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    All but one of these players was unknown to me and I wonder how they rank where they do over some I have heard about.  I especially wonder how Fernando Romero can make #25 when he did not even pitch last year. 

     

    He won't be the highest pitcher on the list that didn't pitch last year. I try not to "punish" in the rankings for injury, even Tommy John. He's still very young and throws in the upper 90s with a chance to start. He was at 25 last year, so he shouldn't be down much further. 

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    Take a closer look at Palacios slash--he walked about once in a 100 PA's in E-town.  Seems opponents never miss the K-zone when he bats...

     

    That is definitely something to watch with him going forward. BB rate and K rate are important in evaluation, but not everything.

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    Take a closer look at Palacios slash--he walked about once in a 100 PA's in E-town.  Seems opponents never miss the K-zone when he bats...

    This is definitely a little worrisome.  That being said, he walked in 15.6% of PA's in 2014 and 8.5% of PA's in the GCL in 2015, so he has displayed that he can be a patient hitter.

     

    It would be nice for him to reestablish that patience before advancing to A-ball.  He's so young at this point that holding him back for a few months is acceptable.

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    Minier & Diaz both had disappointing seasons.  Any reason why you like Diaz so much more than Minier?

     

    Not a ton of difference, but 1.) he's a year younger, 2.) he got to ET quicker, 3.) he showed more power.

     

    Both are very young, and I think Minier will hit and hit for power. Both will have to make more adjustments. They have a long way to go. But I think Diaz has a bit more power potential.

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    Take a closer look at Palacios slash--he walked about once in a 100 PA's in E-town.  Seems opponents never miss the K-zone when he bats...

     

    He's also got a very low K-rate (12% between the GCL and APPY).  Guys who make a lot of contact tend to walk less because they often put the ball in play (or over the fence) before the count gets very deep.  I'm not saying his BB rate is where it should be, but his combination of power and contact ability is pretty rare and worth getting excited about.

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    Gibbons is a bit of a surprise to me, he's barely been on my radar until now.  Any more information on what got him ranked this high?  How are his curve and changeup?  93 mph is nice and all but he better have a nice secondary offering to back it up with.

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    Didn't love the Diaz signing much either. Destined to be a 1B/DH. I would bet he does not start in CR.

     

    Without seeing them, and going only off what we read, Reed seems like an ideal candidate to move the bullpen. Obviously, Polacios is an intriguing name/guy.

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    Didn't love the Diaz signing much either. Destined to be a 1B/DH. I would bet he does not start in CR.

    Without seeing them, and going only off what we read, Reed seems like an ideal candidate to move the bullpen. Obviously, Polacios is an intriguing name/guy.

     

    I would tend to think the Zander Wiel will be the primary 1B for the Kernels in 2016, at least to start the year. 

     

    Reed has only been in the bullpen since signing, and that's where he'll stay.

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    Gibbons is a bit of a surprise to me, he's barely been on my radar until now.  Any more information on what got him ranked this high?  How are his curve and changeup?  93 mph is nice and all but he better have a nice secondary offering to back it up with.

     

    He remains about potential. But he does have a solid and developing curveball and changeup that were improved this year. Obviously that improvement will need to continue as he goes forward and moves up.

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    I would tend to think the Zander Wiel will be the primary 1B for the Kernels in 2016, at least to start the year. 

     

    Reed has only been in the bullpen since signing, and that's where he'll stay.

    D'oh. Not sure where my brain was on Reed, must have been sort of working when typing that.

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    I made 2 mistakes (at least) this summer.  I didn't check the carport for luggage before I fed Jermaine and Lewin.  Once you feed them in Elizabethton, you own them.  That's how I went from 5 baseball sons this summer to 7!  Both good kids, Lewin is very shy (maybe because of his lack of English skills).  Best of luck to both of them.

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    I really like Palacios.  Although it is a bit early I think I would place him my top 20 maybe at number 20.  A guy that young that can hit that well is rare and usually a good sign of great things to come.  Hate to get my hopes up too high as he has a long way to go and much better pitching to face but I really like him as a prospect.

     

    I never liked the Diaz signing.  He was one of the last guys I wanted out of that class. He just seemed slow all the way around to me.  Then Again I have issue's with most 1st baseman types in general so maybe it is just me. I wouldn't have him ranked nearly this high though.  I get that he is young and has lots of time to get that swing together but I fail to see large potential there.  I hope I am dead wrong and he makes me eat crow but that is how I see things right now.

     

    Gibbons is interesting.  I didn't think he was gonna make it through the season in Cedar Rapids but he proved me wrong.  If he figured some things  out maybe we have another good pitching prospect.  I am still sort of waiting for the other shoe to drop on him.  I need to see another good season before getting too excited.  Nice to see you like him enough to make the top 25 though.

    Edited by Dman
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    Let's nickname this list "The Lottery Tickets"

     

    Certainly one to consider... 

     

    It's impossible to predict big league success for Top 5 (or even #1 prospects), so predicting how these guys will do is even more impossible... There is a chance some won't get to AA, and there could be an All Star in the bunch. That's part of the fun of it. 

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    There's nothing wrong with them being lottery tickets. It just struck me that this list was comprised almost exclusively (except for Reed) of long-term project, high upside guys. As opposed to the previous few lists which seemed to have more "We'll be happy if he ever contributes to a major league roster" type guys

    Edited by amjgt
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    I have no clue why you move Diaz up that much, he didn't even play good and isn't good Defensively.. Him over Garver doesn't even make sense

     

    In previous years, I wouldn't rank anyone until they had played in the GCL. For the Prospect Handbook this year, we're going to include recently signed players in our rankings. So, Diaz, for me, wasn't 'eligible' for me to rank last year. That's why it looks like he jumped from N/A to 21 or so. If I had ranked him a year ago, he probably would have been in that same range, possibly a little higher.

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    Rookie league success always comes with the 'grain of salt' condition, but there is a correlation between success at a younger age and continued success down the road.  Palacios could be a steal.  He's on my radar to watch closely next year in Cedar Rapids.

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