Twins Video
Age: 21
2021 Stats (High-A and Double-A): 5-7, 4.71 ERA, 21 G, 16 GS, 93 2/3 IP, 105 K, 25 BB, 17 HR
ETA: Late 2022 out of the bullpen, 2023 as a potential starter
National Top 100 Rankings
BA: NR | MLB: NR | ATH: NR | BP: NR
What’s to Like
Despite being listed at 5’10” — a liberal measure of his height, to be sure — and 155 pounds, Henriquez boasts a fastball that consistently hits the mid-90s. Although its spin rate and other concrete metrics are elusive, its overall shape is consistent with successful fastballs in the modern MLB game: It plays best up in the zone and appears to possess good carry, giving it the illusion of rising action.
Henriquez accomplishes this by getting on top of his fastball at the point of release. While he utilizes a three-quarter arm slot, a concurrent lateral lean of his trunk allows him to get more vertical spin on his heater, giving it that illusion of carry. His secondary stuff needs some work — more on that in a little bit — but his fastball will be a legitimate MLB offering, if it isn’t already.
What’s Left to Work On
Henriquez possesses two other offerings in his arsenal: a slider and a changeup. When on, his slider can be an effective pitch, particularly when placed on the outside edge of the plate for a right-handed batter. However, overall the pitch is rather uninspiring at the moment due to his iffy command of it as well as its lack of consistent bite.
As for the changeup, well, it’s his third pitch and from the video I’ve seen, he rarely offers it up to right-handers and begrudgingly does so to lefties. In short, Henriquez only has one MLB caliber pitch at the moment, which raises questions about his future as a starter. If he can improve the consistency of at least his slider, he may have a shot at sticking in the rotation.
Even so, his overall command can be iffy, even of his fastball. While Henriquez has never posted a strikeout rate less than 26% during his three-season career in the minors, his walk-rate has hovered around 6-7% or roughly three walks per nine innings. Improving his command will be imperative for him if he wants to remain a starter.
Additionally, Henriquez is a fly ball pitcher who struggled with the long ball last summer. At Double-A, he surrendered 15 home runs to go along with a 41% fly-ball rate, which equated to a whopping 19.5% home run per fly ball rate, according to FanGraphs. That’s much too high, so it should come as no shock to see that he posted a 4.86 FIP in 69 2/3 innings. His ability to keep the ball in the park while continuing to miss bats will be a large factor in determining his ability to reach the major leagues.
Finally, while his motion is rather compact and repeatable, he could probably stand to generate more force from his drive leg. Doing so will allow him to maintain velocity on his fastball while simultaneously cutting down on the force imparted on his shoulder and inner elbow, potentially reducing injury risk.
What’s Next
Henriquez will likely begin the season with Double-A Wichita and could reach Triple-A St. Paul relatively quickly if he finds success as his fastball is ready to test MLB waters. It wouldn’t come as a total shock if he made his Twins debut during the latter portion of the season out of the bullpen, though, if the Twins wish to continue to develop him as a starter, he likely won’t make his debut until the following summer.
The Twins have had success in recent seasons developing young arms with some upside into viable MLB candidates. In many ways, Henriquez is exactly the kind of pitcher the Twins have been able to maximize, not unlike Louie Varland and Josh Winder. While he is not likely to be considered a top 10 prospect in the Twins system, he is the perfect athlete to take a flier on in the trade market.
Other's Evaluations
Seth chatted with a talent evaluator outside the Twins organization and received the following comments on Henriquez:
Evaluator 1: I think the Twins fans will be happy with him. I really like his stuff. He’s undersized, so I don’t know if Starting Pitcher will be a long-term position for him. But he throws strikes with swing-and-miss stuff. Whatever role they decide to put him in, I think he’ll be effective. Don’t be too hung up on his AA numbers from last season. He was a 21-year-old competing at a high level.
And friend of Twins Daily, Chris Blessing offered this on Twitter:
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