Push Candidate: Adam Brett Walker III

diehardtwinsfan · February 13, 2015

Walker seems to be a polarizing guy around here. I'm definitely rooting for him, as he'd be the steal of the draft if by chance he figures it out. I think he plays in AA, but to be honest I could see this one going either way. He showed quite a bit of improvement over the course of the second half, so perhaps letting him start in FTM and see if that improvement is for real is a good idea. He's been healthy and is starting his 3rd full season. He's not a 40 man decision for 2 more years. They have time if they want him to repeat.

What I will say is this. Walker is a tremendous mistake hitter. The problem is that the mistakes drop as you move up the chain. That may be why is isolated power numbers dropped, as he's striking out or making weaker contact because the mistakes aren't as often or as bad... I could be wrong there.

big dog · February 13, 2015

You convinced me. Let's not handle him the same way we handled Hicks, Parmelee, and Benson, and see if there is a better way. Let's lengthen the leash.

Unless lightfoot disagrees

lightfoot789 · February 13, 2015

He's not a 40 man decision for 2 more years. They have time if they want him to repeat.

He actually is supposed to go on the 40 man this upcoming Fall.

Funny thing about Walker is that, he had generally played well against ranked teams in college. He had the highest batting average in the country his draft year against Friday Night Aces (according to Baseball America). In college he had career averages of: [.359 BA / .441 OBP / .635 SLG / .276 ISO / .474 SecA / .448 BABIP]. All that was done being no older than 20 years old. He rebounded from the poor Cape showing with a very good Junior season (draft year). None of those numbers would have given anyone reason for doubt (pre draft). I say give him the benefit of the doubt and let him fail up. He might surprise everyone like he did his sophomore year in college when he just went off. (back atcha Lol)

My last comment on thread. I don't want to deter other comments. Everyone knows I'm a believer by now. Over and Out

Edited February 13, 2015 by lightfoot789

Monkeypaws · February 13, 2015

Walker is 6 months younger than Arcia - push push push!

brvama · February 13, 2015

I agree with putting him in AA. Not everyone is an all-around hitter. I could see him, as is, as a potential Adam Dunn type player that actually offers some speed and a position. Let's see how he does with better competition.

Walker, and others, could force some major roster decisions in the near future if they continue their path. That said, I'm sure someone would be willing to take the strike outs with that power if the Twins don't.

nicksaviking · February 13, 2015

I'm usually a "push" guy as I don't like babying these guys but I think Anti-Walker needs to open in Ft. Myers. Usually my beef with the slow promotion is that I don't want these guys getting coddled and end up soft. Perhaps it's just me, but guys who refuse to take pitches even when it would seem their livelihood depends on it, seem somewhat stubborn and could use remedial correction, not a reward which would only encourage the lack of discipline.

nicksaviking · February 13, 2015

I agree with putting him in AA. Not everyone is an all-around hitter. I could see him, as is, as a potential Adam Dunn type player that actually offers some speed and a position. Let's see how he does with better competition.

Walker, and others, could force some major roster decisions in the near future if they continue their path. That said, I'm sure someone would be willing to take the strike outs with that power if the Twins don't.

Adam Dunn could take a walk. Lots of the actually. He was always among the league leaders. As a corner outfielder, Walker is going to have to get on base or he'll stall out really quickly.

Brock Beauchamp · February 13, 2015

I'm usually a "push" guy as I don't like babying these guys but I think Anti-Walker needs to open in Ft. Myers. Usually my beef with the slow promotion is that I don't want these guys getting coddled and end up soft. Perhaps it's just me, but guys who refuse to take pitches even when it would seem their livelihood depends on it, seem somewhat stubborn and could use remedial correction, not a reward which would only encourage the lack of discipline.

The problem with lack of discipline is that it's only exacerbated the further up the MiLB ladder you go.

And then you get to MLB, where even some of the most disciplined MiLB hitters fail miserably.

So yeah, not having discipline with that kind of power in A+ ball is a major problem. If a dude in the FSL league can't draw a walk when the pitchers are terrified he's going to hit the ball 800 ft, that's a cause for serious concern. You do not rush that guy or push him up levels just because chicks dig the long ball.

dolphinalum · February 13, 2015

I'd be willing to bet Walker had more full counts than anyone on Miracle team last year. Almost never struckout on 3 pitches. Rare occurance. Actually works count well. Overly patient to fault. Will swing at bad pitches too. Takes too many good pitches. Always has. Easy fix. AA agreement. JU4Life

highlander · February 13, 2015

My first thought was Dave Kingman, 25 bombs in the Fla St L, WOW! Move him up. Earl Weaver was a firm believer in the three run fly ball.

IndyTwinsFan · February 13, 2015

I can see both sides of this case and don't have any real argument against either one. Being someone who is not that big a metrics guy, plus having never seen him play, I'm more than a little curious about how he could handle AA pitching. While the overall pitching is likely better, it sounds from those who probably know better than I would that Chatty is in more of a hitter's league than Ft. Myers is. That could be an aid in his overall development.

I also think we've pretty well gathered that ABW is likely never going to be a high average or OBP guy. In that case, let's try to continue nurturing what he can do well, that being hitting the bejeezus out of a baseball. In the grand scheme of things, nothing terribly wrong with that, IMHO.

Seth Stohs · February 13, 2015

Walker is 6 months younger than Arcia - push push push!

I'll never understand this thinking... Push guys when they're ready. I honestly think I'd move him up to AA to start 2015, but if they decide to keep him in Ft. Myers for a month or two, I don't think there would be any harm in it. Comparing a guy to some other guy just doesn't make any sense to me.

Seth Stohs · February 13, 2015

I'm usually a "push" guy as I don't like babying these guys but I think Anti-Walker needs to open in Ft. Myers. Usually my beef with the slow promotion is that I don't want these guys getting coddled and end up soft. Perhaps it's just me, but guys who refuse to take pitches even when it would seem their livelihood depends on it, seem somewhat stubborn and could use remedial correction, not a reward which would only encourage the lack of discipline.

Pretty sure I don't agree with most of this.

I don't think holding guys back and letting them get another half-season at a level is 'babying.' They did that with Jason Wheeler last year and it proved very beneficial. There are many such examples. I just don't think they're being coddled. The organization is making decisions based on what they feel will make the player better in the long-run. And, frankly, isn't that their job? Isn't that what they should be doing for every player?

And, I don't think it's stubbornness on Walker's side. I feel like, from listening to many of the Miracle games last year, he was taking a lot more pitches. It may have meant more strikeouts last year, but maybe in the long-term, it'll be beneficial. I just don't think it's as easy as you may think it is to change, or to be something different. It's going to take time and patience.

So, at the end, if I read this right, I think we'd be on the same page that if they do keep him in FM a bit longer, it wouldn't be terrible.

brvama · February 13, 2015

Adam Dunn could take a walk. Lots of the actually. He was always among the league leaders. As a corner outfielder, Walker is going to have to get on base or he'll stall out really quickly.

Forgot about Dunn's ability to take walks. Dunn also struck out often. Still, I'd start him in AA, In this case I like pushing him to see if he continues with the power, which has been awesome. Regarding the walks, It would be interesting, as mentioned above, if Walker was taking more pitches last year and also how many of his strike outs were swinging.

All that said, my main point is that there are other teams that may be intrigued by his power and with the potential logjam in the OF, he could be a good piece in a trade. But first, I'd want to challenge him at AA. It certainly could backfire, but there is also the option of sending him back to Ft Myers. Been done before. But I'd been starting him in FSL too.

ExpectMorePayLess · February 13, 2015

Read in different thread. Interesting outlook on new approach for Walker

It was nice to hear Terry Ryan [on Twins Hot Stove / December 10, 2014 podcast] state:

Quote
"Adam Brett Walker is one of the more talented players skill wise. He's got all the requisites to be one of those corner bats and a right fielder that's athletic enough to play out there. He's had 2 very good years for us and he just keeps creeping up the ladder and I'll suspect he'll start at AA (Chattanooga) next year, so he's on his way"

Lightfoot's Alternate Approach
My quick thought on ABW is he can please everyone with one simple adjustment. Put the ball in play with runners on 2nd or 3rd and 0 to 1 out. No K's allowed. Simple approach. That simple adjustment will result in:
1) less strikeouts per AB and lower K percentage
2) obvious increase in RBI totals (scary thought)
3) putting the ball in play will result in some lucky hits
4) thus increasing BA and OBP and Contact Rate
He will still hit 25 to 35 HRs in the Southern League because when he hits the ball it generally goes a LONG WAY. Not many parks can hold him. Now it's time to work on the little things.

Thoughts? Would it help significantly enough?

Monkeypaws · February 13, 2015

I'll never understand this thinking... Push guys when they're ready. I honestly think I'd move him up to AA to start 2015, but if they decide to keep him in Ft. Myers for a month or two, I don't think there would be any harm in it. Comparing a guy to some other guy just doesn't make any sense to me.

For a guy drafted out of college, who has shown major power at every level, I don't see any value in repeating A ball. If he was to repeat a level, make it AA.

As for the comparison to Arcia, point taken, but then again, Arcia exhibits many of the same characteristics that people cite as a reason for Walker to start in Fort Myers.

nicksaviking · February 13, 2015

Forgot about Dunn's ability to take walks. Dunn also struck out often. Still, I'd start him in AA, In this case I like pushing him to see if he continues with the power, which has been awesome. Regarding the walks, It would be interesting, as mentioned above, if Walker was taking more pitches last year and also how many of his strike outs were swinging.

I could care less about the strikeouts. I care that he doesn't appear to have either very good zone recognition or patience. That doesn't translate to the MLB level. If MLB pitchers know you're strikeout prone AND you can't take a walk, he'll never see a hittable pitch.

nicksaviking · February 13, 2015

Pretty sure I don't agree with most of this.

I don't think holding guys back and letting them get another half-season at a level is 'babying.' They did that with Jason Wheeler last year and it proved very beneficial. There are many such examples. I just don't think they're being coddled. The organization is making decisions based on what they feel will make the player better in the long-run. And, frankly, isn't that their job? Isn't that what they should be doing for every player?

And, I don't think it's stubbornness on Walker's side. I feel like, from listening to many of the Miracle games last year, he was taking a lot more pitches. It may have meant more strikeouts last year, but maybe in the long-term, it'll be beneficial. I just don't think it's as easy as you may think it is to change, or to be something different. It's going to take time and patience.

So, at the end, if I read this right, I think we'd be on the same page that if they do keep him in FM a bit longer, it wouldn't be terrible.

I think putting top pitchers drafted from major conferences in the rookie leagues is coddling. I think not letting top pitching prospects work out their kinks at the MLB level even when your MLB starters are serving up BP nightly is coddling.

I don't think this team coddles the batters. However, possibly because of such a lack of success this past decade, they appear overly cautious with the starting pitchers, perhaps because the organization is unsure of how best to develop them, perhaps because they think if a player is injury prone he shouldn't be on the MLB roster.

That being said, Berrios doesn't look like he's going to get much of a stop sign, neither do several of the college arms drafted in the last three years. Things may be changing.

Edited February 13, 2015 by nicksaviking

Brock Beauchamp · February 13, 2015

That being said, Berrios doesn't look like he's going to get much of a stop sign, neither do several of the college arms drafted in the last three years. Things may be changing.

I believe that it's not so much things are changing as it is "SSS Applies".

Most Twins' pitching prospects have been pretty terrible since 2008. We can all agree on that. They promoted slowly because the prospects weren't any good. This was compounded by their "get it over the plate" drafting ethos, which had them drafting higher floor prospects over higher ceiling guys. Well, unfortunately for the Twins, that "higher floor" was well below an MLB acceptable performance level.

Then we get to Gibson. The Twins were maddeningly slow with him and when he reached the majors, he was bloody terrible. Pretty hard to argue whether they made the right call there. The Twins knew and saw something we didn't.

We move on to May. This one baffles me but I have a sneaking suspicion the Twins wanted him up earlier but he got injured. We'll chalk this up in the "slow promotion and I don't get it" category.

Meyer. I wanted to see him last year as much as anybody but the Twins had him on limited innings and lo and behold, it was for good reason. He shut down at the end of last year as well. In retrospect, they have been rightfully cautious with him because he seems incapable of staying on the mound. It's hard to rationalize the promotion of a pitcher you don't trust to throw 80 pitches in AAA every fifth day.

Berrios. Dude is flying through the system and has poise we haven't seen in a Twins prospect since, what, Santana?

The Twins are a bit on the slow side with promotions but I think it's overblown. The biggest problem is that the Twins have either had flawed or pretty bad prospects that didn't deserve promotions or were held back for various injury/development concerns. They've moved Berrios through the system quickly, Stewart has moved through the system at the same pace, and Thorpe has flown through the low minors at a pace I haven't seen in a long time.

nicksaviking · February 14, 2015

Yes Gibson, May and Meyer are the main talking points when questions arise about slow promotions. Gibson and May have struggled upon their arrival, but that doesn't tell me the club was right to wait, it tells me the opposite. They were viewed as "ready" before their call up yet they still struggled implying being "ready" doesn't occur until they get acclimated to the MLB. Gibson should have been allowed to struggle in early 2013 with the hope he'd be useful at the end of the season and closer to his potential to start 2014. The same should have been done with May. This team has been historically awful, yet they seemed to keep the young arms down at least in part because they didn't want to chance making the MLB product worse. If that played any part in the decisions, and I'd bet it did, they were very short-sighted.

I don't know why there is an idea that guys have to learn in the minors and education ends upon a call up.

ashbury · February 14, 2015

Then we get to Gibson. The Twins were maddeningly slow with him and when he reached the majors, he was bloody terrible. Pretty hard to argue whether they made the right call there. The Twins knew and saw something we didn't.

They started him in high-A and moved him up to AA his first season (signed late in 2009, apparently). Even had a taste at AAA. The next year he started at AAA. Age 23 season. Got injured, they shut him down in July; his first 10 starts had decent results (3.60 ERA), it started to go downhill after that so his total numbers weren't good. TJ surgery. Returned pretty fast, about 12 months later, pitched some rehab-style innings, plus the AFL later. Back in AAA for age 25 season.

Even guys like me who pay overly much attention to age-and-level don't believe that someone gets much better (and closer to major-league ready) simply by aging a year. They weren't aggressive about pushing him to the majors post-TJ, but pre-TJ he was on a fast track (as befits a #22 overall college draft pick), and I can't see how they can be accused of dawdling given the injury.

Shane Wahl · February 14, 2015

Wow, there is a lot being said here. I would like to know just how many pitches per at bat Walker saw. That would be a very helpful stat to see for minor leaguers. Is that to be found anywhere?

Brock Beauchamp · February 14, 2015

Yes Gibson, May and Meyer are the main talking points when questions arise about slow promotions. Gibson and May have struggled upon their arrival, but that doesn't tell me the club was right to wait, it tells me the opposite. They were viewed as "ready" before their call up yet they still struggled implying being "ready" doesn't occur until they get acclimated to the MLB.

I'm sorry but this doesn't make much sense to me. Because Gibson struggled when he came to Minnesota in July doesn't mean he would have struggled the same amount had he been called up in May. It's very likely that he would have been worse because isn't that the point of the minor leagues in the first place, teaching kids and preparing him for MLB? You're taking the assumption that Gibson didn't learn anything during those last MiLB months after Ryan said specifically that Kyle needs to go after hitters to be a successful pitcher in the MLB. The Twins obviously saw a flaw in Kyle and attempted to fix it before giving him the call-up. It's not about being ready - because May and Gibson obviously weren't "ready" to be MLB pitchers - it's about doing all that you can to make sure the player isn't so completely demoralized by early performances that you ruin the kid for the rest of the season or, god forbid, permanently.

In a roundabout way, you're suggesting that if a student struggles in their freshman year of college because college is hard and it takes time to acclimate, the solution is to start putting high school students in college a year earlier. That... isn't logical.

nicksaviking · February 14, 2015

In a roundabout way, you're suggesting that if a student struggles in their freshman year of college because college is hard and it takes time to acclimate, the solution is to start putting high school students in college a year earlier. That... isn't logical.

Well for one thing, the "struggles" we're pretty subjective. Neither Gibson nor May were struggling in any truly meaningful way in AAA. I was simply suggesting that struggles at the MLB level were expected and it would be best to get them out of the way.

For another, in this analogy there was very little difference between the HS students than the college students anyway.

Edited February 14, 2015 by nicksaviking

Shane Wahl · February 14, 2015

Expanding and yet re-directing back, isn't this issue the crux of the matter about promotion? Is it better to just move up a bit early (not way early . . . I know fine line sometimes, but you get the idea) and get the struggles "out of the way" earlier? And does it depend on each individual context (literally every player) or certain positions, pitchers vs. players, catchers, etc., or just in general? And what about differences between various levels and mlb. For instance, it seems like there just comes a time when the only way to get better at hitting major league pitchers . . . is to face major league pitchers (Hicks, by the way). If there is an issue defensively as a catcher, is it better to catch most games at AAA, or to be a backup in the majors?

The "too fast" or "too slow" conversations often seem oversimplified. The general idea I had with opening up a discussion about Walker (and soon Harrison and Navarreto) and promoting or not is to add a little nuance to the discussion. I usually like the idea of challenging players and pitchers a little by perhaps erring slightly on the side of "too fast."

nicksaviking · February 14, 2015

Sorry to derail.

I tend to think a pitcher with a 4.0 BB/9 can still make it at the majors. I also think a middle infielder who struggles to get on base can still make it if he has a nice glove. I just don't think it will work for a corner outfielder.

I don't mean to sound negative, I love Walker's power potential and he sounds like a good guy, but it just seems to me that a promotion would send the wrong message.

And I don't think he's a lost cause by a long shot. I just think the severity of this deficiency needs to come across loud and clear.

Edited February 14, 2015 by nicksaviking

ExpectMorePayLess · February 14, 2015

Who was the last (position player) prospect to benefit from a repeat stay in high A?

[I'm talking after a full season in high A and start of next season]

I'm talking about prospects who became MLB Twins regulars?

I hear those who say let him repeat A+, but where in Twins history has this been beneficial to the point of "This is what should be done"? If no one is blocking a player, let them move up and repeat at the higher levels. Besides, it is not like he had a horrible season. These are not terrible numbers for FSL [ .250 BA / 25 homers / 95 rbi / 750+ OPS]. The new "Twins Way" = Push Push Push

Paul Pleiss · February 14, 2015

You convinced me. Let's not handle him the same way we handled Hicks, Parmelee, and Benson, and see if there is a better way. Let's lengthen the leash.

Unless lightfoot disagrees

Joe Benson. I will always miss you. So much potential.

GMinTraining · February 16, 2015

Any guy who hits a home run and double in his only MLB spring training game (2 for 2) deserves a shot at AA if he is considered a bubble guy. That's a guy who shows he can rise to the occasion. Plus he helped win first ever championship for Miracle who have been around for decades. I personally would have invited him to big boy camp for a week or 2 before sending him down to minor league spring training. I would bet he is the only 2012 / R3 draft choice in baseball not invited to spring training. Wild guess

jokin · February 16, 2015

Joe Benson. I will always miss you. So much potential.

I've got a guy you definitely need to Friend:

http://www.ratemyprofessors.com/ShowRatings.jsp?tid=1891176

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Push Candidate: Adam Brett Walker III

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