Part 2: Seth's Top 30 Twins Hitting Prospects (21-25)

Palacious has been around for quite a while, and seems to get pretty good marks for defense. He has pretty decent batting stats, not outrageous strikeout numbers, decent walk numbers and even steals a few bases.

So what does he have left to prove before he is a legitimate prospect to play shortstop for the big club, because he sure doesn't get much mention for that possibility?

And thus, what is the chance that Palacios ends up being a Rule 5 pick by someone like the Pirates or the Orioles?

I saw Palacios play at Cedar Rapids in 16 or 17 and thought he looked great.  When I did my minor league trips this past summer, I saw him at Wichita.  In both cases, I was impressed with him defensively--good range, enough arm, and good instincts.  And, he hit well when I saw him.  However, I know 5 games over a period of 4 years isn't enough to form an intelligent opinion.  But, I am curious Seth if you think he could hold his own in the majors?  Thanks for the write ups.  

 Palacios is less of a prospect and just a possible player for a couple of years.  He is entering his prime and could have a few good years at MLB level if given a shot, but you should not expect him to play too many years.  I say give him a shot see what he can do.  He may be a couple year stop gap, and if impresses enough some team might want him via trade if we have a SS ready to go. 

Nice list!  I had Palacios making the Twins 40 man especially since they needed SS help but I guess I was wrong.  I still think he gets taken in Rule V.  If the Twins do lose him I think they will regret not adding him but we will see. They must have been saving that spot for a veteran SS with plans on Lewis playing there eventually but I still think Palacios would have been a better bet than Gordon but they know best.  At any rate he had a monster season and was a big part his teams success last year.  Was great too see him break out and given his past years performance was not expected by me at all.

I agree with Seth that Mack turned the bat around late in the season. Hoping he has figured some things out as he could end up being a versatile player.

Let me just say that I thought Contreras was never going to make it.  His 2019 season was pretty brutal at the plate and I always liked De La Trinadad better.  This past year though he was money.  He showed really good power this year and he plays solid defense.  I think he would be a good Jake Cave replacement.  Definitely someone to watch next year.

I was a big fan of the Holland draft pick but his swing still is concerning.  The power is there but so is the swing and miss. Hopefully things go better next year.

Gray started off pretty good and then tanked most of the rest of the season.  Have to say I was pretty disappointed. The eye and bat have a ways to go IMO.

I like all the Palacios comments.  If he is good glove like the summary says maybe he can be our short term solution until we plug in Lewis.  I am surprised he is rated this low.  

Contreras is another batter I would have thought belonged higher on the list.   I expect both of these players to be grabbed in rule V.  

Two thoughts, Seth, as I read about Palacios.  First was your using the word 'fantastic' when describing his defense.  Is he really that good defensively?  He can't be the next Ozzie Smith, but is he Simmons good?

My second thought went back to the Odorizzi trade.  I really hope the FO has been working on another deal that would bring in someone solid like Odor in exchange for say a mid-teen prospect...not Noah Miller, but around there.

Thanks, Seth.

13 minutes ago, roger said:

Two thoughts, Seth, as I read about Palacios.  First was your using the word 'fantastic' when describing his defense.  Is he really that good defensively?  He can't be the next Ozzie Smith, but is he Simmons good?

My second thought went back to the Odorizzi trade.  I really hope the FO has been working on another deal that would bring in someone solid like Odor in exchange for say a mid-teen prospect...not Noah Miller, but around there.

Thanks, Seth.

I'm guessing you mean 2021 Simmons good? Because one could argue there wasn't much different between Ozzie and Simmons in their prime. ?
I agree that I hope Palacios isn't picked in the Rule 5.  At first, I was shocked he was this low.  But between age and streaky hitting and the names in front of him, it makes sense.  I hope we see him this next year and he surprises us.

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

Again I see players with lower Avg. If these are our top hitting prospects we are in a world of hurt. I don't know how long this club can survive with this all or nothing approach. Its fine to have a few guys like Sano in the lineup but you need to score runs without depending on the homeruns.

The name of the game is OPS right now and the analytics tend to show batting average is not the best way to impact OPS. Slugging has the greatest impact on runs scored and even though mighty Casey strikes out a lot when he does connect he scores a run or gets a double or triple.  

OBP is also important to OPS thus taking walks becomes greater than batting average.  Most of the guys on this list have an OBP in the mid 300's.  Rosario was a free swinger with decent BA but he didn't walk much and his OBP and thus OPS suffered for it.  Eye at the plate Hard hit rate are the popular kids right now.  The three outcome game (K, Walk, HR) looks like it is here to stay and the players stats above show they are being groomed that way.

I am interested to see if Contreras will be given a shot. He probably should have come in August/September when Refsnyder and Cave were stinking things up. I suppose they didn't want to carry him on the 40 man, but he's already turning 27. I don't think he has enough upside to be taken in the Rule 5 draft.

Palacios is the one guy who I think could be taken, but teams may be turned off by how it took until his third year at AA to figure out how to hit that level of pitching. I see him as a bench bat who can handle SS well and should work out as a utility guy. Maybe he can become a replacement to Adrianza mid-2022.

3 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

While this is true, by definition... Batting average is essentially counted TWICE in OPS. I'm one who would definitely like to see more balls put in play... it's WAY more fun to watch. 

I think the process is more important than the results (even though obviously in the big leagues, results matter, at least in terms of wins). So I do think Hard-Hit rate is very important. Exit Velocity. Things like Swings outside the strikezone and others that show control of the strike zone. Those are things that front offices should care about... 

Yeah the Rod Carew, George Brett days were fun.  To the eye hits are more beautiful than walks but I still think the home run is king and I think that is what has brought us to where we are today.  That dribbler through the infield is harder to come by these days so why not swing for the fences and put a run on the board with one swing?  The romance with batting average seems to be gone maybe not from a fan perspective but as a strategy to win it has been replaced with OPS.

I just wonder about prospects with higher than maybe a 20% rate of striking out. That's a lot of times to strike out- even in minor league parks with slightly poorer lighting. But these are somewhat lower prospects or still young kids.

On 12/22/2021 at 7:33 PM, Dman said:

Yeah the Rod Carew, George Brett days were fun.  To the eye hits are more beautiful than walks but I still think the home run is king and I think that is what has brought us to where we are today.  That dribbler through the infield is harder to come by these days so why not swing for the fences and put a run on the board with one swing?  The romance with batting average seems to be gone maybe not from a fan perspective but as a strategy to win it has been replaced with OPS.

That is why the bats of Celestino, Larnach and Rooker had so much to do with the Twins win-loss record.

Two singles and a double are worth more than a home run with bases empty.