Part 2: Seth's Updated Top 50 Prospects (31-40)

Surprised you don’t have Leach higher given his draft status

Tyler Watson struck out 116 in 2017, not 16.

Before trade = GS 18, IP 93, H 92, K 98, BB 24

After Trade = GS 05, IP 27, H 28, K 18, BB 08

Twins have a large number of players that have some chance in the major leagues.  Will be interesting on how many are exposed to the rule 5 draft.

Burdi does seem low and a number of these should move up or down based on the season.

I like Leach, Reed and Burdi among this group.  Couple of the starters could make it.  Might use some of them as lottery tickets as I feel the Twins need to thin some of the prospects rather than lose 3 - 4 this winter.

Hmmm

Scratching my head over this...Aaron Slegers at 34?

I agree he isn't much of a prospect but for me, his proximity to the MLB team moves him up 10 spots or so.

Tyler Watson struck out 116 in 2017, not 16.
Before trade = GS 18, IP 93, H 92, K 98, BB 24
After Trade = GS 05, IP 27, H 28, K 18, BB 08

Now corrected--editor

If there are 30 players better than this group, the Twins organization is good...really good.  

Would love to see the Twins move a couple players in the next week so they don't lose several players in the Rule 5 draft.  Unfortunately, most teams are facing the same problem and those type of moves probably won't happen.

A lot of relief arms and a couple backend starters in this group but not anyone with a huge ceiling. Maybe Leach could get there but he isn't there yet.

I would think Watson could get there, too. There's a lot of room for projection with a skinny 6'5" 20-year-old lefty who averages over a K per inning. Looks a lot like Gonsalves on paper. 

That's some odd logic. You don't think he's much of a prospect, but you think he should be higher up on a top prospect ranking?

 

I guess it all depends on your methodology in ranking guys. Personally, I wouldn't put much of an emphasis on proximity to the majors and may have Slegers even lower than Seth. That's not to say I don't like him, but his ceiling is quite a bit lower (funny thing to say about a guy that's 6'10") than a Leach/Lachlan/other guys of that ilk.

For me its floor & ceiling.  A guy like Slegers has a high floor, so I would move him up the prospect rankings.  But his ceiling is probably #5 pitcher for a few months.  Its the same idea where a guy like Mejía was a top 10-15 prospect last year.  His ceiling is probably a #4 but he was so close to the MLB team his floor was high so he got ranked higher.  

Can't remember, Seth....did Cody Stashak make your top 50 the last time you did this ranking?   Doesn't look like he'll make the cut this time.   Guess he just had an "ok" year at Fort Myers plus some new 2017 draftees are going to push some folks down in the rankings.

Think he has a chance if he stays healthy though.  Only 23 years old, but will need to make a solid move forward in 2018.

I think Stashak was at the back end of the Top 50 last time. I think he's got a chance. He just missed a bunch of time with a couple of injuries, so I wouldn't make too much of the numbers. I was impressed that they sent him straight to AA at the end of the year.  

...and he didn't look out of place, either. That part impressed me quite a bit.

I don't think that ranking is too far off. This is a deep system, and while Slegers is a prospect close to the majors, he's not a high ceiling guy by any means.

 

I would note that the encouraging thing is all the guys in the 30-50 range who could be contributing major leaguers in the not so distant future. Some could be pretty good.

I am surprised Slegers is so far down. Agree that his ceiling is low, but he has had a reasonable amount of success in MILB. Are there really that many pitchers in the system ahead of him....we will see. My impression is pitching is our weak link.

I guess it is important to understand the methodology. Most rankings of top prospects are weighted heavily towards the "what if". What If the guy who throws 95+ starts hitting his spots, or the 6'6" pitcher is projected to add 5 MPH To his FB. In reality most often they don't achieve these projections, yet they are considered more valuable because if they do they are higher ceiling guys.

Lots of Sleger types end up have MLB careers, but most often they are not highly regarded in these types of evaluations.

I am like a lot of people and look at rankings in a different way, thinking close to the MLB team, versus potential.  I just cannot assess potential - with all the previous years ink I kept thinking Burdi and Reed would blow people away in the major league BP, but here we are still ranking them in the potential arena. 

Frankly, I would not be surprised if all of these players made the bigs, but also I would not be surprised if that ranged from the cup of coffee to a small role.  Star status does not seem likely.  

Moya is intriguing, but that might just be that we are always curious about the new acquisitions and tend to hope for more than those we know well. 

I am like a lot of people and look at rankings in a different way, thinking close to the MLB team, versus potential.  I just cannot assess potential - with all the previous years ink I kept thinking Burdi and Reed would blow people away in the major league BP, but here we are still ranking them in the potential arena. 

 

Frankly, I would not be surprised if all of these players made the bigs, but also I would not be surprised if that ranged from the cup of coffee to a small role.  Star status does not seem likely.  

 

Moya is intriguing, but that might just be that we are always curious about the new acquisitions and tend to hope for more than those we know well. 

With the idea of looking at prospect rankings as who is closest to MLB vs. potential, wouldn't that make somebody like Royce Lewis rank outside the top 10, maybe top 20 in a prospect ranking? I think looking at it that way would bump AAAA type players a lot higher on a list than potential impact players.

It's also possible that I'm misunderstanding, but it seems like ranking on how close they are to the MLB is more of a depth chart than a prospect ranking.

With the idea of looking at prospect rankings as who is closest to MLB vs. potential, wouldn't that make somebody like Royce Lewis rank outside the top 10, maybe top 20 in a prospect ranking? I think looking at it that way would bump AAAA type players a lot higher on a list than potential impact players.

 

It's also possible that I'm misunderstanding, but it seems like ranking on how close they are to the MLB is more of a depth chart than a prospect ranking.

You have a point, but for me AAAA is not major league ready, just better than many younger players.  I want to rank players who will be major leaguers, not fringe players while a depth chart might list the 4As since they are fillers for injury and other depth issues.  I like potential, but I want to see some of that potential played out - in our top 50 there are many who are not going to make it or will be destined to the 4A rank.  The top prospect, to me, is the guy who is ready to step in and be a starter and contributor.

You have a point, but for me AAAA is not major league ready, just better than many younger players.  I want to rank players who will be major leaguers, not fringe players while a depth chart might list the 4As since they are fillers for injury and other depth issues.  I like potential, but I want to see some of that potential played out - in our top 50 there are many who are not going to make it or will be destined to the 4A rank.  The top prospect, to me, is the guy who is ready to step in and be a starter and contributor.

Gotcha. Basically weighted towards guys at the higher levels. That makes sense.

I lean towards potential a bit more, but use levels/age as more of a tiebreaker.