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  • Draft Preview: Five to Focus On


    Jeremy Nygaard

    Despite the snow that hit parts of the midwest and the return to winter for many of the rest of the reading area, baseball is back alive and well.

    As the Twins kicked off their exhibition season, many colleges and high schools around the nation also started (or continued) their seasons. That means draft season has officially kicked off.

    How did the top draft prospects do?

    Image courtesy of © Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports (photo of Jeren Kendall)

    Twins Video

    Hunter Greene, RHP, California prep. Greene made his regular-season debut on Saturday and lived up to the hype. He struck out seven batters in five innings. He allowed two walks on the day and two runs on two hits (and a balk) in the first inning. His fastball was reportedly clocked as high as 97 mph.

    The highlight of the day, though, was when Greene hit a grand-slam to give his team a 5-2 lead. He finished the 10-3 win playing shortstop.

    You can follow Greene throughout the spring right here at Twins Daily. Judging by his team’s schedule, he will likely throw again next Saturday. The Twins were definitely in attendance on Saturday, though I was unable to confirm who was scouting the game.

    Kyle Wright, RHP, Vanderbilt. You might say that Wright has been up-and-down-and-then-back-up so far this season. In inning one of game one last week, Wright was mid-to-high 90s for an inning. But then he dropped to the low 90s for the next four innings, walking (three) more than he struck out (two). His outing was done after five frames and he didn’t show any sort of breaking ball.

    Friday night was a different story. Over 93 pitches in six innings, Wright struck out seven, allowing a run on four hits (but no walks). He worked in the low-to-mid 90s, touching 97 mph and showing a plus curveball.

    Wright has the stuff #1 overall draft picks (and front-end pitchers) are made of. For me, Wright is the leader in a very tightly-contested college pitching class.

    Jeren Kendall, OF, Vanderbilt. Kendall started off his weekend with a bang: a 436' bomb to centerfield. He added a hustle-double later in the game and finished 2-for-5.

    Saturday’s game highlighted the biggest issue that Kendall has: he struck out four times (twice looking, twice swinging) and was intentionally walked in his fifth plate appearance.

    On Sunday, Kendall went 0-for-5 with an extra-inning strikeout. He also failed to bunt successfully earlier in the game. Kendall was asked to bunt last week and ended up bunting into the air, causing a game-ending double-play.

    Kendall’s speed, arm strength and pretty left-handed stroke along with his potential to hit home runs and play center field make him a five-tool prospect. But those tools come with a few question marks that were highlighted over the last three games.

    Alex Faedo, RHP, Florida. On a similar path as Wright - Faedo struggled in a 4.2 inning, four-run showing in his debut - game two was a bounce-back.

    Against rival Miami, Faedo was one out short of a complete game, allowing only two hits and striking out eight. He was replaced in the ninth inning after a two-out error was followed by a full-count walk, his first and only walk of the game. He threw 119 pitches.

    Though I couldn’t connect with anyone who was at the game, there are reports that he had “full command” of “nasty” arsenal, which includes a low-to-mid 90s fastball with movement, a very good slider and a developing change-up.

    Royce Lewis, SS, California prep. The JSerra Catholic High School athlete will begin answering questions about whether he can stick at shortstop when his season kicks off on March 11.

    ---

    Though there is no official “board” anywhere in any Twins front office member’s office, Greene’s name sits atop the unofficial board I’ll be updating over the next few months. I’d put both Faedo and Wright slightly in front of Kendall. Lewis remains a bit of a dark horse until he starts to play, but the Twins are high on his potential.

    1. Hunter Greene
    2. Kyle Wright
    3. Royce Lewis
    4. Alex Faedo
    5. Jeren Kendall

    How does your board look?

    --

    Hrbowski also posted on some draft prospects this weekend.

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    Are you willing to take someone that isn't likely to go Top 5 first overall? To *maybe* get a guy that drops?

     

    Or would you rather have the guy you like the most and two other Top 40 talents?

     

    The Twins have always played the draft relatively straight and I'd expect that to happen again. 

     

    I think the implication is that you do something like that if there's little gap between the top 5 talents.  There's a pretty big difference between 1 and 5, and someone might give up some slot for a guarantee... I would think... now if that slotting difference isn't quite that big, then you're right. 

     

    For me, it's more of a curiosity. If there's a clear BPA, you take him, no question.  But if there's not really a gap there, then perhaps that's a game you play.

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    I think the implication is that you do something like that if there's little gap between the top 5 talents.  There's a pretty big difference between 1 and 5, and someone might give up some slot for a guarantee... I would think... now if that slotting difference isn't quite that big, then you're right. 

     

    For me, it's more of a curiosity. If there's a clear BPA, you take him, no question.  But if there's not really a gap there, then perhaps that's a game you play.

    2017 slots: 

    1 $7,400,000 Twins
    2 $6,850,000 Reds
    3 $6,350,000 Padres
    4 $5,860,000 Rays
    5 $5,435,000 Braves
    6 $5,050,000 Athletics

     

    2016 slots:

    1. Phillies $9,015,000
    2. Reds $7,762,900
    3. Braves $6,510,800
    4. Rockies $5,258,700
    5. Brewers $4,382,200
    6. Athletics $4,069,200

     

    The talent gap was always much more narrow than the money gap. Now it might be the other way around. You could lose a few million dollars if you dropped from 2 to 5 before. Now it's half that. 

     

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    Plus, if the top 5 are about the same, how do you convince one of them to take number 5 money, given they will feel likely to be picked 1-3?

     

    You don't convince one of the Top 5 to take #5 money.

     

    For example, Carlos Correa wasn't a Top 5 lock, so the Astros saved money on him by taking him first... and Correa was going to take less cause he could have dropped to 5 or 6 or lower. (I think the Twins would have taken him had Buxton gone first.)

     

    Last year, you could negotiate with the guy you wanted first and say, "Listen, if you don't take $7.6m from us, you better hope you go second... or you might not make $6." 

     

    The Twins could get someone to agree to $7m this year, but that's only banking $400,000, not $1,400,000.

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    2017 slots: 

    1 $7,400,000 Twins
    2 $6,850,000 Reds
    3 $6,350,000 Padres
    4 $5,860,000 Rays
    5 $5,435,000 Braves
    6 $5,050,000 Athletics

     

    2016 slots:

    1. Phillies $9,015,000
    2. Reds $7,762,900
    3. Braves $6,510,800
    4. Rockies $5,258,700
    5. Brewers $4,382,200
    6. Athletics $4,069,200

     

    The talent gap was always much more narrow than the money gap. Now it might be the other way around. You could lose a few million dollars if you dropped from 2 to 5 before. Now it's half that. 

    For my own sake here are slot values into the 2nd round, since the Twins pick at 35 and 37.

     

     

    7 $4,777,000 Diamondbacks
    8 $4,552,300 Phillies
    9 $4,352,000 Brewers
    10 $4,168,000 Angels
    11 $3,998,900 White Sox
    12 $3,839,600 Pirates
    13 $3,690,900 Marlins
    14 $3,549,800 Royals
    15 $3,417,000 Astros
    16 $3,293,600 Yankees
    17 $3,174,200 Mariners
    18 $3,061,200 Tigers
    19 $2,953,700 Giants
    20 $2,851,600 Mets
    21 $2,754,400 Orioles
    22 $2,661,800 Blue Jays
    23 $2,573,800 Dodgers
    24 $2,489,800 Red Sox
    25 $2,409,700 Nationals
    26 $2,333,200 Rangers
    27 $2,260,100 Cubs
    28 $2,193,000 Blue Jays
    29 $2,132,100 Rangers
    30 $2,080,100 Cubs

    31 $2,033,000 Rays
    32 $1,985,000 Reds
    33 $1,936,500 Athletics
    34 $1,889,000 Brewers
    35 $1,843,000 Twins
    36 $1,798,700 Marlins

    37 $1,758,000.00 Twins
    38 $1,716,800 Reds
    39 $1,676,700 Padres
    40 $1,632,700 Rays
    41 $1,594,700 Braves
    42 $1,557,500 Pirates
    43 $1,521,100 Athletics
    44 $1,485,700 Diamondbacks
    45 $1,451,100 Phillies

     

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    I wonder if the Twins would be able to find a college hitter like the Cubs did with Schwarber, pay him 3-4m at #1 than take 2 more ~20-ish talents at 35 and 37 with #15 type slot money.

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    You don't convince one of the Top 5 to take #5 money.

     

    For example, Carlos Correa wasn't a Top 5 lock, so the Astros saved money on him by taking him first... and Correa was going to take less cause he could have dropped to 5 or 6 or lower. (I think the Twins would have taken him had Buxton gone first.)

     

    Last year, you could negotiate with the guy you wanted first and say, "Listen, if you don't take $7.6m from us, you better hope you go second... or you might not make $6." 

     

    The Twins could get someone to agree to $7m this year, but that's only banking $400,000, not $1,400,000.

     

    Agreed, I was responding to the poster that said if the top 5 are about the same, offer to sign one of them for less, at least I think that's what the person was saying.

     

    Frankly, I'd rather have the elite talent, and a top 40 guy, than a top 15-20 guy, and hope another top 20 guy a: drops, b: will sign with you.

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    How does Hunter Greene compare to other recent HS RHP phenoms? Guys like Bundy, pre-TJ Giolito, and Taillon.

     

    KLAW:

    Nobody has thrown this hard except Pint, and Greene does it much easier. Giolito and Bundy had better secondary stuff at this age. Greene is probably the best athlete of this whole group. And he can play plus defense at short.

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    Agreed, I was responding to the poster that said if the top 5 are about the same, offer to sign one of them for less, at least I think that's what the person was saying.

     

    Frankly, I'd rather have the elite talent, and a top 40 guy, than a top 15-20 guy, and hope another top 20 guy a: drops, b: will sign with you.

    Regardless who they at a 1-1, they should be able to bank some money. I don't think anyone 1-1 pick has signed for full slot yet. Most of the top-5 picks have all be underslot to one degree or another. They won't be able to bank a ton (like recent years), but I'm guessing something like $500k. Having almost back-to-back picks at 35 & 37 should allow them to pounce if a top player does fall to them. They can grab the player at #35 and then pick someone significantly underslot at #37. Adding that to the savings at with the first pick, they could probably offer $3M+ at #35 if a player warranted it, which is basically what the major overslot players received last year from the Reds/Braves/Phillies. This won't require any shenanigans with the 1-1 pick. Just take the best player.

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    Regardless who they at a 1-1, they should be able to bank some money. I don't think anyone 1-1 pick has signed for full slot yet. Most of the top-5 picks have all be underslot to one degree or another. They won't be able to bank a ton (like recent years), but I'm guessing something like $500k. Having almost back-to-back picks at 35 & 37 should allow them to pounce if a top player does fall to them. They can grab the player at #35 and then pick someone significantly underslot at #37. Adding that to the savings at with the first pick, they could probably offer $3M+ at #35 if a player warranted it, which is basically what the major overslot players received last year from the Reds/Braves/Phillies. This won't require any shenanigans with the 1-1 pick. Just take the best player.

     

    good points all around!

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    How does Hunter Greene compare to other recent HS RHP phenoms? Guys like Bundy, pre-TJ Giolito, and Taillon.

     

    KLAW:

    Nobody has thrown this hard except Pint, and Greene does it much easier. Giolito and Bundy had better secondary stuff at this age. Greene is probably the best athlete of this whole group. And he can play plus defense at short.

     

    Man, if this guy plays plus defense at short, it's a serious toss-up what position he will play in the future. 

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    Man, if this guy plays plus defense at short, it's a serious toss-up what position he will play in the future. 

     

    Probably not. If he can pitch at an elite level, teams will try that first. Because there are almost no number 1, and hardly any number 2, pitchers. IMO, of course.

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    Probably not. If he can pitch at an elite level, teams will try that first. Because there are almost no number 1, and hardly any number 2, pitchers. IMO, of course.

    From everything I've read, Greene, as a shortstop, would be in 1st round consideration but not an top pick. He is not at the same level as Machado, Correa or other elite HS SS players.

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    My non-sabermetrics view on Hunter Greene is pretty high. He's a gamble coming out of high school, but his athleticism and character make him a good bet to me.

    Baseball America (I know, relax) had a good story about his work ethic, intelligence, and overall
    character. Even if the Twins don't take him, I'll be keeping an eye on him to see how his career pans out, if it does.

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/get-to-know/

    Thanks for posting that video. Of course it's a fluff piece to a certain extent, but I really was drawn in by the talk of the pitching specialist.

    It was also at that age that Hunter began working with Alan Jaeger, a pitching coach widely considered a pioneer of arm health and velocity development.

     

    Also, he seems unusually focused for a teenager.

    Very interesting.

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    I find this exercise interesting, if not totally predictive. 

     

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-top-college-players-by-maybe-predictive-stats-10/

    One interesting thing about this article is how a similar article in 2015 was the first time I saw Benintendi rated highly, even higher than Swanson and Bregman, although they and Fulmer were all rated highly.

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    Bukauskas is a pretty exciting guy but other places have noted some concern with his effort/delivery.  

     

    With 35 and 37, it's also possible (likely?) that a pitcher slotted for the top 15 gets injured (like Giolito or Aiken) or has a crap season (Alec Hanson) and the Twins might be able to take a gamble that way, as well.  

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    I'm not either, but you wanna bet if this happens more, or less, this year? You do know the history of college coaches abusing these guys, right?

    The abuse question is greatly overstated, especially in recent years. Might be 2-3 guys a year max, but vast majority of programs handle their pitchers responsibly.

     

    110 pitches followed by a full weeks rest strikes me as perfectly reasonable.

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    Thanks for posting that video. Of course it's a fluff piece to a certain extent, but I really was drawn in by the talk of the pitching specialist.

    It was also at that age that Hunter began working with Alan Jaeger, a pitching coach widely considered a pioneer of arm health and velocity development.

     

    Also, he seems unusually focused for a teenager.

    Very interesting.

    Agreed. I'm onboard the Hunter Greene bandwagon/harbor cruise boat. Seems like a special talent and amazing kid. Also think that Falvey would like the work with Jaeger. Description of work ethic and drive reminds me of Berrios.

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