Buyers or Sellers: Lessons Learned From the 2017 Trade Deadline

If they don't sell, they are not doing right by whats best for the organization. The pitching depth throughout the minors, that could potentially contribute on some level within the next few years, is either coming off injuries or currently hurt.. With that, everyone's development timeline is pushed back. You have to stock the system with something, frankly I don't care if it hurts the teams chances in 2022.. Things are not trending in the right direction. Get ahead of this being another 2011 disaster and right the ship.

Um,...Buyers?!?! ah....no...just no.....you silly

The single biggest problem facing the Twins NOW is injuries in the minors.

2020 set back player development for everyone, but has clearly affected the development of pitchers they were really hoping would be part of 2021 and beyond.

So now you have to rebound and re- set for 2022. 

The good news is we are seeing the future of Larnach, Kirilloff and Jeffers and even Gordon getting ML time for the future. Hopefully the same for Gordon. Not to mention the development of Alcala as a BP piece and Ober as a possible end of the rotation option. (He's looked good but is being protected for obvious reasons).

Re-tooling on the fly has gone out the window, unfortunately. (Which was the original plan).

But we are still seeing some exciting things between the blurred lines of wins and loses in a lost season.

Hopefully, we are going to see Winder and Duran along with a couple pen options. Miranda will also see some ML time, but unless I'm mistaken, MLB in their short sighted wisdom is still limiting late season promotions. 

The difference between 2017 and now is the core players were just being established.  Unfortunately, the 2021 Twins are more "out of it " compared to 2017. Don't give up! But be real. If you can get ANYTHING for a couple expiring contracts then do so.

At some point, you have to just say you have a losing season. But it doesn't have to be a LOST season. Remember the kids already here and the kids pushing the envelope for tomorrow.

Boston, for example, was supposed to be trash this year. Why can't we continue to play and audition our talented prospects and promote a few more and just make a few smart moves offseason to get ready for 2022? Even with losses we all expect, there's still a lot to like on this roster. 

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

The single biggest problem facing the Twins NOW is injuries in the minors.

2020 set back player development for everyone, but has clearly affected the development of pitchers they were really hoping would be part of 2021 and beyond.

So now you have to rebound and re- set for 2022. 

The good news is we are seeing the future of Larnach, Kirilloff and Jeffers and even Gordon getting ML time for the future. Hopefully the same for Gordon. Not to mention the development of Alcala as a BP piece and Ober as a possible end of the rotation option. (He's looked good but is being protected for obvious reasons).

Re-tooling on the fly has gone out the window, unfortunately. (Which was the original plan).

But we are still seeing some exciting things between the blurred lines of wins and loses in a lost season.

Hopefully, we are going to see Winder and Duran along with a couple pen options. Miranda will also see some ML time, but unless I'm mistaken, MLB in their short sighted wisdom is still limiting late season promotions. 

The difference between 2017 and now is the core players were just being established.  Unfortunately, the 2021 Twins are more "out of it " compared to 2017. Don't give up! But be real. If you can get ANYTHING for a couple expiring contracts then do so.

At some point, you have to just say you have a losing season. But it doesn't have to be a LOST season. Remember the kids already here and the kids pushing the envelope for tomorrow.

Boston, for example, was supposed to be trash this year. Why can't we continue to play and audition our talented prospects and promote a few more and just make a few smart moves offseason to get ready for 2022? Even with losses we all expect, there's still a lot to like on this roster. 

 

I think this sums it up: 5 starters.

3 starters with ERAs of #1: 5.56, #4: 5.83 and #5: 7.18.

Even the 1977 Twins with Carew’s .388, Bostock’s .336 and Glenn Addams .338 plus Hisle’s .302 with 119 RBIs couldn’t win with three heavy innings starters with those ERAs. 

Buyers? No. Sellers? Why? Sacrificing 2022? Absolutely not. After a pandemic with fan interest teetering, telling them that they don't plan on competing in 2022 is not very smart. Sellers rarely improve at the trade deadline. All they really do is shed salary.  Twins can take care of changes during the offseason. Any visions of getting 'value' for Cruz, for example, is pie in the sky. His 'value' is highest where he is. No contender will be giving up young talent (not suspects) for a couple months of a 41 year old DH.

1 hour ago, insagt1 said:

Buyers? No. Sellers? Why? Sacrificing 2022? Absolutely not. After a pandemic with fan interest teetering, telling them that they don't plan on competing in 2022 is not very smart. Sellers rarely improve at the trade deadline. All they really do is shed salary.  Twins can take care of changes during the offseason. Any visions of getting 'value' for Cruz, for example, is pie in the sky. His 'value' is highest where he is. No contender will be giving up young talent (not suspects) for a couple months of a 41 year old DH.

 

I am assuming that pointing out the myriad of players picked up at the deadline that are now contributing to winning teams is  absolutely pointless given the examples are many and you have chosen to ignore this fact.  I guess you are correct that SanDiego shed some salary when they traded away James Shields for Tattis Jr.  Someone should have told those fools you can't improve your team with this type of trade.

I think we're still in this and I think the Sox and Indians are weak leaders. I also think we are sellers for sure. I hope we keep Cruz for the rest of the way. I heard Arraez talking about what he has learned from him - I think for what we would get in return, it isn't worth it. The moves we need to make are to set us up for next year. We have a lot of 2B/3B talent - we have a lot of 1B/Corner OF talent - we have a lot of Catcher talent. Trade from surplus talent while opening up spots for the future talent. Not sure on next year SS, but an infield of Kirilloff 1B/Arraez 2B/Miranda 3B looks like a clear winner. I'm hoping other teams come calling for Kepler/Polanco/Sano and Donaldson. Those are probably the 4 contracts to go, (other than expiring vet contracts) making room for young players, and making room for free agent Pitcher signings.

I think the biggest factor is the execution of selling strategy. You can trade them all but you have to get the right pieces back. If I recall we don’t have any of the players we received. For me it boils down to this: do you trust the FO to successfully execute a selling strategy?  For me the answer is I don’t know but I’m not real confident. 

20 minutes ago, Linus said:

I think the biggest factor is the execution of selling strategy. You can trade them all but you have to get the right pieces back. If I recall we don’t have any of the players we received. For me it boils down to this: do you trust the FO to successfully execute a selling strategy?  For me the answer is I don’t know but I’m not real confident. 

I thought they did quite well in 2018 with much less to work with than they have this year.  Alcala looks to be a contributor for the next few years.  Of course, the overall value of those deadline moves will probably depend on how Duran turns out.   I think Chris Valimont and Luis Rijo were part of that group too.  He could end up having some value too.   I think Celestino and DeLatrinidad are 4th OFers. 

I think the season to learn from is 2011. 

Their pitching was old and second from the bottom (to the Orioles) in league ERA. They believed their competitive window was still open and the decisions they made lengthened the time they spent on the bottom. They tried to reload.

For 2012 they added veteran Jason Marquis on a team friendly deal. They tried to squeeze another year out of Carl Pavano. They added 30+ arms Jared Burton and Jeff Gray to the bullpen. Scott Diamond was a rule 5 patch that seemed to help.

On offense they added 30+ Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit and Jamey Carroll(38!) killing any thought of preventing runs with the glove. They also brought in Jeff Burroughs.

They couldn’t see that it was over. Yes… trading Perkins, Pavano, Cuddyer, Kubel, Baker and even Mauer would have angered the fan base in a new park. All of those players were near or older than 30. They certainly would be in decline before the pitching could be fixed.

Hindsight on my part is easy here. We need a front office with foresight. They need to put aside their own need to win now to keep their job for the longer term outlook of the franchise. They need to see that this window has closed. They need too much pitching and it can’t be fixed with Marquis or Happ or Burton or Robles. They need to aggressively sell and they need to go through the growing pains of young pitching for a few years. They need to commit to starting their young pitching. Giving Liam Hendricks 28 starts spread over three years is not a commitment to his development. 

They need to sell.

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

I totally agree. Unless you get a really good prospect the value of Cruz to the fan base not to mention what he brings to the younger players in the clubhouse is worth his salary. I think you keep Pineda, try to resign Berrios and Buxton, and after them good luck. Kepler, Sano, Simmons are the only other pieces that may bring some sort of value and even that would be a bit of long shot.

Kepler is the only one that has true value. But again, what do you get in return? A similar type player. If they can get a SOLID #3 starter do it today! Resign Big Mike as a #4, Happ and crew at 5. 

Sano, Cruz, Pineda and Simmons bring bullpen talent at best or lottery ticket prospects .

If you truly want an impact trade you have to shop Buxton, I think you shouldn't but he's the most valuable trade piece.

The Twins FO got themselves into this mess by signing has been pitchers that other teams didn't want.  Yes we have had a lot of injuries.  So has everyone else.  We need to sell at deadline.  But please don't trade for suspects that may become prospects in 3 years.  If that is all you can get it goes to show what other teams think of your lack of talent.  We need good starting and bullpen pitchers

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

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For every situation, trade, deal etc, there will always be exceptions on either end. My contention is i doubt the Twins will improve much by selling. Certainly not this season (which isn't why 'bad' teams sell anyway). How many Tatis Jr's are there in the universe?  For everyone of him, you have a cruise ship full of wannabe's and neverwills.  My feeling about Twins 2021 is they have a lot of talent...and much of it is still young.  I think this team, with a tweak in pitching, can contend in the AL Central next season. Plus, in baseball, you don't have to spend 'years' rebuilding. Teams go from worst to first all the time in one season. RedSox may be that team this year. While I am not ignoring the 'good deals' I am also not forgetting all the rest.

I would never use past seasons to dictate how you move forward in a current season.  Unless the team can one show they can beat winning teams by trade deadline it does not matter if you can make playoffs, you will just lose again.  I am not saying to do a tear down, but if they are not a plan for next year or beyond, ask around to see what you can get. 

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I thought they did quite well in 2018 with much less to work with than they have this year.  Alcala looks to be a contributor for the next few years.  Of course, the overall value of those deadline moves will probably depend on how Duran turns out.   I think Chris Valimont and Luis Rijo were part of that group too.  He could end up having some value too.   I think Celestino and DeLatrinidad are 4th OFers. 

So quite well is -  nothing for two years (sure Alcala pitched last year but didn't even end up with 1 hold), a relief pitcher with a 4.40 era with three holds, 3 blown saves and an injury replacement CF that can't hit in year 3. And some maybes that may help 4, 5, 6 years after the trade?

I remember when fans begging to do something in 2017, 2018 and 2019 to help they team get further in the playoffs and others saying the reason the Twins couldn't trade some of the following, Lewis, Gordon, Gonslaves, Romero, Javier, Kirilloff, Jorge, Jay, Stewart, Blankenhorn Graterol, Enlow, Rooker, Thorpe, Larnach, Baddoo, Wade, and others was because these were the guys that were going to keep the window open for when Berrios and Buxton contracts were ending.

And yet years later, we have two guys that look pretty darn good (Kirilloff and Larnach), but also look closer to Rosario and Kepler than Acuna and Vlad Jr. They turned Graterol into Maeda (who had great 11 games in 2020), Thorpe and Alcala are relief pitchers and Gordon looks like a utility player and a bunch of maybes.

There are 3 of those guys out of baseball (Jorge,Jay, Romero), multiple that have been cut, one lost in Rule 5, another traded for a guy that was cut, some still in high A, and a couple with major injuries (Lewis and Enlow).

If I did my math correct there are more guys that were in the minors with the Twins in 17 and 18, playing on others teams that on the twins, I could be wrong because I only spent a minutes looking that up.

My point isn't to trade or not to trade, it is this FO has not been good with the assets it has and had, and if you look back at comments on this site, this was suppose to be the golden age of Twins baseball. All those guys I listed above were going to be the savior and bring us into an era of the twins competing every year because the minors would continue to reload the major league team.

Lastly, I have no faith in the pitchers in the minors that other are excited about, because this FO philosophy for starting pitchers is crap, none of those guys are really learning to pitch or prepare for the majors, they have low pitch counts and most don't even average 5 innings per start, how are they going to be expected to jump to the majors and pitch 6 or 7 innings when they can't and don't in the minors, I take that back how are they going to finish 5 innings against major league hitters when they can't even do that in the minors.

11 minutes ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

1. Does the system require extra re-stocking right now? (And is there a restocking fee? ) Seriously, there have been some prospect injuries to deal with, but there have also been some graduations and good performances/advancements.

2. Does selling at the deadline even provide meaningful re-stocking? 2017 gave us Littell, Enns, Moya, and Watson. 2018 looks much better, although the long-term effects remain to be seen (Alcala, Celestino, Duran, etc.).

It's been a disappointing year, but we're way ahead of the 2011 disaster. The 2011 team didn't have the young controllable offensive performers that the 2021 team has (or the contributing veteran bats); the 2011 team didn't have a healthy ace like Berrios anymore either. And the problems of 2011 had been set in motion years prior. The 2021 team still has a very real opportunity to reload and contend in 2022, if our 2021 comeback attempt fizzles out over the next few weeks.

I hate to be pessimistic, but honestly where do you see these graduations in the pitching department. Yeah, Larnach and Kirlloff are fantastic. Arraez is a phenomenal hitter, Jeffers looks to be a building block long term. But outside of those guys, I'm not seeing it on the pitching side whatsoever, they have the oldest pitching staff in baseball actually.

If Duran joins Enlow and Sands with TJ, your left with Canterino (whos been hurt) and Balazovic (whos been hurt)... So then we are looking at some bargain relief pitchers and that's what we are going to hang our 2022 hopes on? 

Selling at the deadline SHOULD mean a meaningful re - stocking, you can't sit on your hands and hope for things to work out with what we got going right now.

on 2011…

In Baker’s two starts prior to deadline (July 23 and 28) he pitched 12 innings, gave up 2 runs, struck out 9 and walked 1. His pitched 7 innings and threw 97 pitches in that July 28 start.

The likelihood that a number 32 draft choice will be successful is very small. There are 6 players drafted in that slot since 1965 with more than 10 career WAR. Three more will likely get there. The Twins can’t expect a comp pick to be a Berrios. There is much greater likelihood that an established good prospect will have a career. The Twins probably got lucky with Luke Bard also. His career WAR of 0.2 ranks 12th in his draft slot since 1965. Many do do not close to the majors. Should the Twins count on getting a Berrios back as a comp pick?

The two players where comp picks are possible are Buxton and Berrios. I would pay up to sign them to extensions. Can they even count on comp picks with the uncertainty of the agreement with the union?

Looking forward I would sell off now. I would sell off expiring contracts. I would sell Donaldson if it meant either getting back prospects or retaining at least 16 million to spend on Buxton and Berrios. I would sell high on Rogers rather than pay for his decline. I would have sold off Garver also but not sure when he will return as a catcher and I think he has little value as a 1B/DH.

I am trading for prospects and starting the rebuild. I don’t think it is possible to build a World Series contending pitching staff for 2022 and while being in the hunt for a wild card is possible it isn’t my long term goal. My goal is a World Series pitching staff and that can’t happen until they have a foundation of home grown pitching.

15 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Only 2 teams in the AL have less wins....and people think they are in this? I hope the FO isn't thinking that way.

There are zero, zero, starting pitchers in AAA that look like legit MLB starters. They have Berrios for 1 year. They have Ober (a back-end starter), and who? They have Buxton for 1 more year. They have no starting SS next year. 

Before anyone says "look at AA".......unless those guys get multiple starts in MLB this year, they won't be starting on day 1 in MN next year....And even then, they might have 1-2, might, starters (given the odds of any working out). 

2024 is the next most likely good year....so go get some top ceiling pitching prospects.

2024? I would think 2023 is realistic even if you think we won't be competitive in 2022... unless you think our FO is that incompetent.

Are they ready to sell low, essentially cut bait on a Sano or Kepler for a raw prospect and some salary relief?  I can see a few teams being interested and maybe some non-contenders.

46 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Only 2 teams in the AL have less wins....and people think they are in this? I hope the FO isn't thinking that way.

There are zero, zero, starting pitchers in AAA that look like legit MLB starters. They have Berrios for 1 year. They have Ober (a back-end starter), and who? They have Buxton for 1 more year. They have no starting SS next year. 

Before anyone says "look at AA".......unless those guys get multiple starts in MLB this year, they won't be starting on day 1 in MN next year....And even then, they might have 1-2, might, starters (given the odds of any working out). 

2023 is the next most likely good year....so go get some top ceiling pitching prospects.

I agree completely.  I would add this team is not nearly as terrible as the record would suggest but they would need to dominate the Whitesox to have any chance and even then the chance of winning this division is remote.  All of the injuries to key prospects is a real bit@#.  Our relative success is going to be a matter of a handful of prospects working out.  I like the odds of Ober and Winder contributing and Winder has a high ceiling.  Obviously, Duran, Balazovic, Canterino, and Enlow are the higher ranked prospects but they need to get healthy and demonstrate they are ready before I am going to have confidence in them.  Adding to the pool of prospects can only improve the odds of future success.  Let's hope the guys on expiring contracts are very good over the next month.