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  • 2023 Prospect Previews: Brooks Lee


    Jamie Cameron

    A candidate to go #1 overall, Brooks Lee fell to the Twins and the #8 pick in the 2022 MLB Draft. What can we expect from Lee heading into the 2023 season? What's his ceiling? Where might he start the year?

    Image courtesy of Steve Buhr (graphics by Thieres Rabelo)

    In advance of the 2022 draft, a clear top six industry prospects emerged in the pre-draft process. The Twins appeared to be on the outside looking in, selecting at number eight overall in the first round. The only predictable thing about the MLB Draft, however, is its lack of predictability. The Rangers shook up the draft taking Kumar Rocker at number three. The Twins ended up in the enviable position of being able to pick between Brooks Lee, Kevin Parada, and Cam Collier and opted for Lee, the prospect with the safest floor of the three, and a contender to go number one overall.

    Scouting and Signing
    Hitting: 70 Power: 50 Run: 40 Fielding: 50 Arm: 55 (scouting grades courtesy of Baseball America)

    Lee signed a $5.675 million bonus with the Twins, second behind Jacob Berry for all college players. Lee had a track record as a prospect, ranking as a consensus top 50 pick as early as 2019. After an injury plagued 2020 season, Lee hit well in 2021, and took off in 2022. In 58 games at Cal Poly he put up a .357 average with 15 home runs, 46 walks, and just 28 strikeouts. 

    Lee had the best hit tool in the 2022 draft class. He’s a true switch hitter, although more effective from the left side of the plate. Projecting forwards, Lee should be a .300 hitter at the major league level, with the ability to continue to develop power (15-20 home run range). While he has good hands and a strong arm, the critique of his play at shortstop in college was a lack of lateral agility. It’s likely that he moved to third base long term (particularly with Carlos Correa locked in at shortstop for the foreseeable future).

    Early Returns
    The Twins weren’t shy about throwing Lee into the mix at a variety of levels of pro ball when he made his debut in late 2022. After starting at the Complex League, Lee played 25 games at High-A Cedar Rapids. In 114 plate appearances he managed a 140 wRC+, walking 14% of the time and striking out just 15.8%. Lee was promoted to Double-A for their playoff run last fall and has already lived up to his billing as a fast mover.

    Likely to Start At: Wichita Wind Surge (AA)
    Lee dominated most of the pitching he saw in 2022. It’s likely he starts 2023 at AA Wichita. Expectations from Twins fans have understandably been high for such a promising prospect. In a very small samples size, Lee has delivered. If he can stay healthy, the smart money would be on a major league debut in 2023, a blistering pace that could have Lee with the Twins before he’s completed a full calendar year in the minors. If the Twins hold onto Lee and he stays healthy, he should be a starting infielder who hits .300 with average to above average power for the big league team for the next decade.

    What are your hopes for Brooks Lee in 2023? Where do you think his defensive home will be? What do you think his ceiling is? Join the discussion and leave your thoughts in the comments.

     

     

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    Sorry, missed the above comments about Bane's debut.

    I did attend that game with my Dad.  Calvin was promoting the hell out the kid, and everyone was handed a small black and white photo of Eddie as a souvenir.  I saw it somewhere a few years ago in my keepsakes....

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    16 minutes ago, Karbo said:

    I'm not sure but I think Bane came up and pitched the same year he was drafted out of 1 of the AZ schools.

    Yes, Arizona State. Here is a list of all of the players who have made the jump straight from college (or high school!) to the bigs, including Dave Winfield from U of M in 1973, and more recently Mike Leake and Garret Crochet.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_baseball_players_who_went_directly_to_Major_League_Baseball

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    6 hours ago, Karbo said:

    I'm not sure but I think Bane came up and pitched the same year he was drafted out of 1 of the AZ schools.

    You are correct  , eddie bane did pitch in the majors the first year he was drafted ,,,

    David clyde was another first round drafted player Texas drafted the same year and he pitched in the majors in the same game they made their debut ...

    It was kind of a promotional thing between Calvin and Texas to draw fans late in the season  ...

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    19 hours ago, Dman said:

    I would give up Kepler that is about it.  Love Parada's bat but he was rated as having a 45 arm.  Not ideal for catcher.  Honestly I don't see him sticking at catcher but that is just my opinion.  Lee is also already two levels ahead of him and both players were picked primarily for their bats.  I still think Lee was the better choice especially since he is a switch hitter and can likely play multiple positions.  If I thought Parada would stick at catcher I might feel differently but if he end up at 1st base or DH I will be really glad the Twins picked Lee.

    So....Dman beat me to it.  Parada's bat is the reason he was drafted.  The Twin's drafted Lee 3-4 spots in front of Parada and has done nothing to disappoint.  The Mets could try to move Parada to the outfield at some point but (see Lewis and Martin) to get a feel for how that might turn out.  A player without a position can be a tough thing to manange.  That being said, I don't think the Mets would entertain any of the other 4 players mentioned in a trade.  Maybe if at least 2 of them were in a package.

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    When Brooks Lee comes up depends entirely on injuries, like Kirilloff's wrist. If he goes down, Miranda goes to 1B and Lee could come up to 3B immediately. Otherwise it's a logjam of good hitters. Lee's bat does not displace Miranda's or a healthy Kirilloff's. If they stay healthy, then you start giving Lee major reps at 2B, and get ready to trade Polo. 

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    1 hour ago, jimbo92107 said:

    When Brooks Lee comes up depends entirely on injuries, like Kirilloff's wrist. If he goes down, Miranda goes to 1B and Lee could come up to 3B immediately. Otherwise it's a logjam of good hitters. Lee's bat does not displace Miranda's or a healthy Kirilloff's. If they stay healthy, then you start giving Lee major reps at 2B, and get ready to trade Polo. 

    I think Lee out hits and out fields Miranda. 

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    On 1/19/2023 at 10:18 PM, Steve71 said:

    A poster above suggested that Lee might be the fastest player to reach the Majors.

    I am old enough to have attended the pro debut of pitcher Eddie Bane in 1973, who went directly from college to MLB with zero time in the minors.  That is a record that will never be broken.

    By the way:  He sucked.  4.66 ERA over 4 seasons, walking more than he struck out.  He found employment is a couple front offices after he stopped playing, and was a terrific college player for ASU.

    Had to be one of the funniest looking Twins player ever.

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    17 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

    I think Lee out hits and out fields Miranda. 

    Lee wins this going away on the fielding side. But I look forward to this competition on hitting. Haven't forgotten how Miranda absolutely destroyed it in 2021, and he really held his own in his MLB debut after a pretty awful first month that has sent a lot of rookies spiraling down back to the minors for a re-set. That said, I do think Brooks Lee's bat is special. Could be a lot of fun to watch them both in 2024.

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    On 1/19/2023 at 1:39 PM, tarheeltwinsfan said:

    Which of these prospects/players would you give the Mets for catcher, Kevin Parada: 1) Brooks Lee; 2) Luis Arraez; 3) Max Kepler; 4) Jorge Polanco; or 5) Trevor Larnach? Personally I would trade any one of these 5 for Parada. What do you think? 

    I was big on Parada last draft & was hoping the Twins would pick him up because he was the highest catcher in the draft. But as it turned out I'm very happy to get Lee instead. I'm with you that we desperately need a high catcher prospect right now & I'm more than willing to trade for one. 

    Parada is great hitting catcher but his defense leaves a lot to be desired & I'm not crazy about his arm. So I'd prefer a different one.

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    I don't see Lee coming up before Sept. unless Farmer or Miranda get seriously hurt early & Lewis gets a set back later. I too see Lee as our future 3B as early as '24. With a name like Brooks he has be a All-star 3B. Switching hitting Lee LH bat will come in handy at the left side of the INF. I'm very excited about our up coming prospects. I believe they all could be awesome.

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    1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

    Lee wins this going away on the fielding side. But I look forward to this competition on hitting. Haven't forgotten how Miranda absolutely destroyed it in 2021, and he really held his own in his MLB debut after a pretty awful first month that has sent a lot of rookies spiraling down back to the minors for a re-set. That said, I do think Brooks Lee's bat is special. Could be a lot of fun to watch them both in 2024.

    I think that's fair. I admit there is lots of hope in my position....

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    On 1/21/2023 at 5:19 PM, Mike Sixel said:

    I think Lee out hits and out fields Miranda. 

    I think you are absolutely correct. I think Miranda is keeping 3b warm right now until Lee slides in in 2024.

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    I was surprised Lee fell to #8.  He was the top college bat in the draft, a switch-hitter and a SS.  Even if the Twins have good health this year if Lee, Lewis and Julien are raking and playing well in the field, they will each be up at some point.  Starting Lee at AA is a good idea and if he's sizzling there he could very well skip St. Paul or have a quick cup of coffee and be on his way up.  I see Lee up in August at the earliest and September more likely.  But he WILL be a Twin in 2023.  

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    This is a great position for the Twins to be in.  Miranda gets another year to show us what he can do at the MLB level,  and 2 is we can get a better baseline of what Lee can do at the pro level by seasoning in AA and AAA.  We have seen players hit a wall at AA or AAA -  however,   Lee who has a very good IQ and work ethic will most likely do fine.  he is a high floor, medium to high ceiling.  He will likely not be a superstar, but a very very good foundational piece.  We are set to continually have a very good infield for the foreseeable future.  

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    Brooks Lee has high marks for his arm and power but very high for his hit projection. He rarely strikes out and also has an excellent eye at the plate. Thus Lee has a high floor and his risk of not reaching the majors is lower than other draftees.

    One player mentioned in this post as an exciting prospect is a catcher, Kevin Parada. Parada carries a high mark for his batting and projects to have very good power. However, he is slow, lacks a decent arm, and will need significant gains behind the plate to avoid being a DH. Yordan Alvarez is an example of a young DH, but he is as good of a batter as there is in MLB and also plays a fair LF.

    A prospect who can field decently, carries a very high hit tool, and consistently hits the ball hard from both sides of the plate while being selective and difficult to strike out is rare. I think this why Brooks Lee is a prospect to follow. Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis (a more toolsy prospect) present the Twins with a  pair of guys that could potentially create many problems for pitchers for the next decade.

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    I was lucky enough to catch his lone home double AA appearance last year and from my vantage point behind the dugout he carries himself with every bit of maturity and comfort that you would expect from a college coaches kid.  In a one game sample he had a couple good at bats, squeaked out a couple hits and seemed functional in the field but I was mostly interested in watching him away from the ball,  New team, new level, directly into the playoffs as the starting shortstop should be intimidating as hell and if it was he dealt with it well.  He certainly belonged in that arena.

    I grabbed this picture at the end of the game.  He was the only player who stayed in the dugout at all and he watched the other team celebrate for a good couple of minutes.  It really struck me as something of note with the contrast to his teammates.  Maybe the rest of the team was sick to death of the Midland whatevers and maybe he was just a little stunned that the wild ride was over for the year.  Regardless, it stuck with me.

    Whatever the case he was impressive in a small sample and I'm looking forward to watching him in person for what will likely be a short time here in Wichita. 

    2022-09-27 22.17.19.jpg

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