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  • Winter Meetings - Search For A Starter

    Seth Stohs

    By Seth Stohs

    The Winter Meetings are an interesting event, particularly for fans. There are a multitude of rumors, and we need to sift through them to find out which are real and which are just talk. Monday was fairly quiet on the Twins rumor front, but maybe Tuesday will get things going. If nothing else, an early-morning tweet got my mind running.

    It's no secret that the Twins are going to have a lot of discussions in Orlando this week with teams and agents in a search for an upper echelon pitcher. What are the options and what could a trade cost the Twins in terms of prospects?

    Image courtesy of Charles LeClaire, USA Today

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    The Twins have two options if they would like to acquire a top-level starting pitcher. They can give up money, a lot of money, to acquire a top free agent starter. It would likely also cost a draft pick. The other option to acquire a starting pitcher is via trade which, of course, costs a number of top prospects.

    FREE AGENTS

    Yu Darvish is the big name on the free agent market. He's clearly the top starting pitcher available. The cost for Darvish would be either five or six years at somewhere around $23-26 million per year.

    Jake Arrieta has won a Cy Young, and he's been good, but there are several question marks surrounding him this offseason after a "tough" year with the Cubs in 2017. Regardless, he's going to get three or four years and at least $20 million per season, probably more.

    Those are the top two free agent starting pitchers, but two others are getting a lot of talk and a lot of interest.

    Lance Lynn is going to get three or four years and $18-20 million per season. Alex Cobb is also going to get three to five years, and he will get between $17-21 million. The fact that the Cubs are interested in Cobb will likely push those dollars to the upper end of that range.

    All four of them would cost the Twins a draft pick.

    THE TRADE MARKET

    We've heard some of the same trade candidates mentioned since the trade deadline. Chris Archer and Gerrit Cole are, well, if they're not Aces, they're upper tier starters, guys we would be happy to have at the top of the Twins rotation.

    But what might the cost be?

    Early on Tuesday morning, a tweet from Pirates Breakdown caught my attention. I don't know much about the site, though a quick glimpse and it looks great. And I don't know whether or not this 'source' is legit of not. What I do know is that it does make sense for a conversation starter. Whether it is for Gerrit Cole, or a similar trade for Chris Archer, it's enough to keep the trade talks going.

    https://twitter.com/pbcbreakdown/status/940390540998250497

    As much as I hate seeing prospects traded, I think even I would make that trade for Gerrit Cole.

    Nick Gordon is a top three Twins prospect regardless of the ranking source. I had him ranked as the Twins #3 prospect last week. To acquire a pitcher of Gerrit Cole's caliber will require a top prospect. As much as I like Gordon and believe in his future, there are still some question marks about his offensive potential and whether he can stay at shortstop.

    Likewise, Tyler Jay can be a star bullpen arm if healthy. But again, if his role is going to be out of the bullpen, the Twins can replace those 65 innings per year with other internal options or on the free agent market.

    Zack Granite can be a solid starter in the outfield and can definitely roam center field for a team. With the Twins current roster, he would be the fourth outfielder, capable of playing all three outfield spots, taking quality at-bats, etc.

    I don't know if this package would be enough to get the Pirates to pull the trigger, but this is a deal that I would make. What do you think?

    I generally have this assumption that if I personally would be willing to make a theoretical trade then the other team (the Pirates in this case) would probably want more. For instance, I would think they might want a top pitching prospect (Stephen Gonsalves or Fernando Romero) to go with their current crop of young, talented pitchers (Jameson Taillon, Tyler Glasnow, Chad Kuhl, Ivan Nova, Trevor Williams, etc.). But maybe they like that young core of pitchers and want to build up their lineup with two guys who could, in time, hit at the top of their lineup.

    Cole is a Boras client who made $3.75 million in 2017, his first year of arbitration. He will likely make $7-8 million in 2018, and maybe $10-12 million in 2019 before becoming a free agent. So, the Twins would likely need to pay him $17-20 million over two years.

    Chris Archer will make $6.25 million in 2018 and $7.5 million in 2019. There is a club option for 2020 at $9.0 million ($1.75 million buyout) and a second club option for 2021 at $11.0 million ($0.25 million buyout). The Twins would likely end up paying him $33.75 million over four years.

    The Twins need pitching and need starting pitching. What direction would you prefer to go, free agency or the trade route? Besides Chris Archer and Gerrit Cole, what other pitchers would you like to see the Twins contemplate acquiring?

    Seth Stohs has been blogging about the Minnesota Twins since May 2003. A founder and owner of Twins Daily, Seth has been a Twins fan for 40 years and has a passion for covering the minor leagues and prospects.
    Follow Seth Stohs on Twitter: sethtweets

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    dbminn

    dbminn 1,849

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    While I like Granite and think he's a valuable 4th OF for us this year, you don't hesitate to add to the front end of your pitching staff because of a 4th OF. So it has to be about Jay and the ceiling/floor our front office views for him.

     

    I wouldn't stop the trade because of Granite but I would try to offer a different prospect. Buxton will likely miss some time this season. The Twins don't have another CF who is even close on defense. That means spending more money on the FA market, which increases the cost of the trade. 

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    nicksaviking

    nicksaviking 26,755

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

     

    If that would be the actual cost for Cole, I'm doing that trade.

     

    While a lot of people love Archer and his stuff, I'd honestly rather have Cole for what the price will be, and I've always thought of Archer as an enigma. To me he has the weirdest, non-competitive demeanor on the mound I've ever seen. Now, it's not like that has prevented him from striking a bunch of guys out and dominating at times, but something is just "off" there for me.

     

    Also, Archer's career WAR vs. Cole's WAR is only 11.9 to 11.4 (bref), and Cole has pitched one less season. Archer put up 4.3 in 2015 and Cole 4.5 that same season. They both gave up a bunch of HR's last year, but before that Cole was very good at keeping the ball in the yard while Archer's been giving them up at that rate 2+ seasons.

     

    What I'm saying is, I don't think Archer is far and away better than Cole to justify the price difference in a trade that it seems it's going to require.

     

    My first choice is sign Yu Darvish, but trading for Cole would be my second option and I don't see why they couldn't do both if they really wanted. Trading for Archer is a distant option for me and I realize I may be the minority on that.

     

    Archer has been through the ringer of the AL East and has still come away as one of the division's top starters. He also misses a boatload of bats.

     

    Cole's consistency, injury history and lifetime in the NL makes me nervous.  

     

    Plus the four years instead of two is huge. The fact that Archer is on such a small contract could also mean he'd be amenable to ripping up that contract and increasing his current base pay in exchange for adding on a couple of years, should the team want to extend him that is.

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    Vanimal46

    Vanimal46 28,724

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    Archer has been through the ringer of the AL East and has still come away as one of the division's top starters. He also misses a boatload of bats.

     

    Cole's consistency, injury history and lifetime in the NL makes me nervous.

     

    Plus the four years instead of two is huge. The fact that Archer is on such a small contract could also mean he'd be amenable to ripping up that contract and increasing his current base pay in exchange for adding on a couple of years, should the team want to extend him that is.

    What injury history does Cole have? No significant surgeries as far as I can see.

     

    The Yankees don't appear to have any issues with his consistency and the fact he's in the NL....

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    amjgt

    amjgt 3,009

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

    I would add a choice of Gonsalves/Romero to the rumored Cole package in order to get Archer instead.

     

    Is actually an interesting either/or.

     

    4 years of Archer

    Or

    2 years of Cole and 6 years of the prospect we lose.

    Edited by amjgt
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    nicksaviking

    nicksaviking 26,755

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

     

    What injury history does Cole have? No significant surgeries as far as I can see.

    The Yankees don't appear to have any issues with his consistency and the fact he's in the NL....

     

    I guess I can't recall what the injuries were so perhaps they were flukish, but he did miss about 1/3 of a season both in 2016 and 2014.

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    Vanimal46

    Vanimal46 28,724

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    I guess I can't recall what injuries they were so perhaps they were flukish, Bbut he did miss about 1/3 of a season both in 2016 and 2014.

    Both flukes. Shoulder fatigue in 2014, no surgery. Elbow strain in 2016, and was shut down for the year because the Pirates were out of the playoff race.

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    gunnarthor

    gunnarthor 11,234

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    I thought a trade for Cole would have to include Gordon and Romero/Gonsalves but I think Jay and Granite is a roughly equal to that. I like Gordon a lot (I think he's our #1 prospect) and Jay could be an absolute killer in the pen but his injury history is such that I think its ok to move on. But he could really come back to bite us.  But Cole could be a nice piece in our rotation. I think the deal is fair - might be a bit too kind to Pitt and maybe they need to throw in a small piece back - but it's certainly a decent starting place for a negotiation.  

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    gunnarthor

    gunnarthor 11,234

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    I would do the trade for Cole in a heartbeat, and then sign other starter (no worse than Lynn/Cobb with preferring Cobb.  

    I am OK with the Archer - Longorilla trade including Sano.  Sano is a Boras client and Twins chances of retaining him for more than 4 years are small.  I would see if Sano is interested in a 6 year deal before I did this, but hope the Twins have already done their work.  Sano + Gordon + Starter and Granite should be somewhere in the ballpark.

    Sano is represented by roc nation, just like his idol, Robinson Cano. 

    http://rocnation.com/miguel-sano/

     

    Lewis is a Boras client (and so is Gerritt Cole)

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    ThejacKmp

    ThejacKmp 2,978

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    I'm a fan of just signing Arrieta. I know there are some concerns health-wise but he's got less mileage on his arm than most because of his slow development and all he costs is a second round pick. He also seems like a guy you can get for four years instead of going five or six. That contract might be rough the last year but that's the risk you take.

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    SF Twins Fan

    SF Twins Fan 1,219

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    I do Cole for Gordon, Jay & Granite in a heartbeat.  Offer Cole a deal in the 4-year / $40-48mil range and buy out his remaining remaining two arb years & first two years of FA.  The guy could be a horse.

     

    That's probably a bit light on what it would take to get a Boras client to sign an extension. Probably closer to 4 years for $60mil.

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    rghrbek

    rghrbek 924

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I hope there is some truth to the rumor Seth posted...however, in my opinion, there is no way the Pirates asked for that little in return...

     

    All 3 unproven and the only pitcher is a reliever?

     

    If it's true the Twins should have done it by now.  Ripped up the arb years and pay him 4/years 66 mil...Nice raise over the arb years

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    amjgt

    amjgt 3,009

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    I hope there is some truth to the rumor Seth posted...however, in my opinion, there is no way the Pirates asked for that little in return...

     

    All 3 unproven and the only pitcher is a reliever?

     

    If it's true the Twins should have done it by now.  Ripped up the arb years and pay him 4/years 66 mil...Nice raise over the arb years

     

    The rumor comes from a Pirates fan site, not Seth. Which gives it more credibility than if it came from "us"

     

    And actually, the reaction from what seemed like Pirates fans on Twitter, was positive. 

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    gunnarthor

    gunnarthor 11,234

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    I hope there is some truth to the rumor Seth posted...however, in my opinion, there is no way the Pirates asked for that little in return...

     

    All 3 unproven and the only pitcher is a reliever?

     

    If it's true the Twins should have done it by now.  Ripped up the arb years and pay him 4/years 66 mil...Nice raise over the arb years

    We might also be over estimating Cole. He has name recognition but he was decidedly average last year and only threw 116 ml innings the year before. He can eat innings but his era and fip weren't great. What do we think we're getting for his two years?

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    Dantes929

    Dantes929 4,529

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Still not sure why Cobb is not higher on everyone's list and Cole is so high.  They have almost identical numbers career wise and Cobb's were better last year.   Cobb also pitches in the AL East while Cole is a National Leaguer which just makes me discount him by 10%.     I would be ok with the package mentioned for Cole though.    I don''t know that I want to add more than one starter because I think at least two of Gonsalves, Romero, Mejia and May will be very good by mid season.   Twins didn't get better in 2017 by adding a lot of guys.  They did it by guys playing better and developing.    I like to see that trend continue.

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    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 41,021

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    I'd prefer that the Twins keep their prospects, let the current core of Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, etc. get another year of experience, see if they are the real deal, see if Sano is going to ever be healthy. Use $ to sign a couple of mid-level pitchers, sort thru all the AAA starters, then next winter make a big trade. Or even at the trade deadline this summer, if the Twins are in contention.

     

    Keep the prospects, spend $ to improve, let the prospects get experience, THEN make a big trade splash to get over the hump.

    To realize that puts Sano and Buxton another year closer to free agency? Eventually you have to try to win.

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    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 41,021

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    I'm a fan of just signing Arrieta. I know there are some concerns health-wise but he's got less mileage on his arm than most because of his slow development and all he costs is a second round pick. He also seems like a guy you can get for four years instead of going five or six. That contract might be rough the last year but that's the risk you take.

    My least favorite option. Just not a believer

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    mudcat14

    mudcat14 507

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    That's probably a bit light on what it would take to get a Boras client to sign an extension. Probably closer to 4 years for $60mil.

     

    I'm not so sure.  $20mil is the high end for his two arb years.  $20-28 for the two years that follow would be low, assuming he continues to pitch at or above his current level.  However, if he has a Rotator Cuff injury, a UCL tear or Thoracic Outlet Syndrome occur in the next two years, he could only dream of that kind of money.  Archer sold his arb & early FA years for a lot less than that.

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    Steve Lein

    Steve Lein 3,180

  • Twins Daily Contributor

    • Posted (edited)

     

    I wouldn't stop the trade because of Granite but I would try to offer a different prospect. Buxton will likely miss some time this season. The Twins don't have another CF who is even close on defense. That means spending more money on the FA market, which increases the cost of the trade. 

     

    Um, Rosario and Kepler say hello. They can handle it. Plenty of guys who can fill in a corner.

    Edited by Steve Lein
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    dbminn

    dbminn 1,849

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    Um, Rosario and Kepler say hello. They can handle it. Plenty of guys who can fill in a corner.

     

    Not as well as Granite. And if you move one of the two, you do need a corner OF, which the Twins don't have, so it will cost more to do the deal than if you can find a different prospect to fill the space in the trade. 

     

    Like I said before, I wouldn't stop the trade if it included Granite but there may be a better alternative. Maybe provide an actual OF you'd get as a FA and serve it beside the sarcasm.

    Edited by dbminn
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    KirbyDome89

    KirbyDome89 4,113

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    We might also be over estimating Cole. He has name recognition but he was decidedly average last year and only threw 116 ml innings the year before. He can eat innings but his era and fip weren't great. What do we think we're getting for his two years?

    I think the name is carrying a lot of weight in this instance. Don't get me wrong, he's a clear upgrade over anything they have right now, but only having him for 2 years is tough. It depends on what they would have to give up for archer but 4 years at least gets them to the FA years of Buxton, Sano, ect. 

     

    Cole for 2 years is easier to swallow if by some miracle they decide to spend $$ and get Darvish. 

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    T_J

    T_J 306

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

    Cole makes sense, but If I was talking to the Pirates, it makes more sense to package him with MacCutchen and Rivero.   Here is what I proposed.

     

    That trade would be near dream come true. It would sting, but it seems really close to reasonable by both sides. One thing that I wouldn't be sure about is Krililoff. I know around here we seem to adore our hometown kids, but I don't see that in other places as often. 

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    Oldgoat_MN

    Oldgoat_MN 2,434

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    I'm a fan of just signing Arrieta. I know there are some concerns health-wise but he's got less mileage on his arm than most because of his slow development and all he costs is a second round pick. He also seems like a guy you can get for four years instead of going five or six. That contract might be rough the last year but that's the risk you take.

    I agree with you regarding the cost of Arrieta, however...

    Arrieta makes me a little nervous. His 2015 was great, but his ERA, FIP and WHIP went up in 2016 and again this past season. His BABIP went down from .345 in 2016 to .298 last year and those other number still went up.

    I know he'll only be 32 next season, but I find those three stats unsettling.

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    old nurse

    old nurse 2,366

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    Cole makes sense, but If I was talking to the Pirates, it makes more sense to package him with MacCutchen and Rivero.   Here is what I proposed.

    They would do that trade in a minute if only you included Buddy Boshers

    Edited by old nurse
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