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  • Will the Twins Pursue Aaron Judge?


    Cody Christie

    Aaron Judge is completing one of the best walk years in MLB history. Can the Twins surprise the baseball world for the second straight year and sign one of baseball’s top free agents?

     

    Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA TODAY Sports

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    The Yankees offered Aaron Judge a seven-year, $213.5 million extension last spring, but it was an offer he could refuse. He bet on himself, arguably having the best walk-year in MLB history. He finished the season with an AL-record 62 home runs, and only Luis Arraez kept him from winning the Triple Crown. Now, Judge has an opportunity to shine in October before hitting the free agent market for the first time in his career. 

    Judge is the likely AL MVP, and he will become a free agent heading into his age-31 season. For reference, Carlos Correa, who is likely heading back to the free agent market, is two years younger than Judge. Both players project to get massive long-term deals, and the Twins will have payroll flexibility this winter. Does that mean the Twins have room to add Judge?

    Like many players, Judge has seen up-and-down seasons throughout his professional career. He burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2017 as he led the AL in home runs (52), RBI (128), and walks (127) on his way to being named Rookie of the Year. Injuries impacted his next three seasons, but he still posted a 146 OPS+ when on the field. To produce like his rookie season, Judge needed to adjust his routines to stay healthy regularly.

    Over the last two seasons, Judge has averaged over 150 games per year because he is “being smarter” about his preparation. The results speak for themselves. Judge has averaged 152 games per season since the start of 2021 with a 180 OPS+. During his monster 2022 season, he led the AL in runs, home runs, RBI, walks, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, and total bases. It was a memorable season, and now he will make significantly more than the $217.5 million the Yankees offered him this spring. 

    Minnesota has the potential to hand out a long-term contract this winter to one of baseball’s most prominent free agents, but Judge might not fit the team’s long-term plans. The Twins have multiple outfield options heading into the 2023 season. Byron Buxton signed long-term, and Max Kepler is entering the final guaranteed year of his contract. The club also has three young outfielders (Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner) that will need playing time in the corner outfield spots. Not all these players are guaranteed to be healthy, so Minnesota will need outfield depth entering the 2023 campaign. 

    Obviously, any team can find room in the lineup for a player of Judge’s caliber, but other top free agents might be a better fit in Minnesota. Correa already has an established relationship with many of the Twins’ young players and has a chance to provide more value since he is younger. Even coming off his monster season, Judge’s free agent market might not play out perfectly, and this could allow a surprise team to emerge. The Twins have done this in recent years with Correa and Josh Donaldson

    It seems most likely for Judge to return to New York and sign a contract that keeps him in pinstripes for the rest of his career. However, Judge might be looking for a different market if he feels the Yankees gave him a lowball offer last spring. 

    Do you want the Twins to pursue Judge this winter? Does he fit with Minnesota’s long-term plan? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

     

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    As much as I want to see someone, anyone get the big hit when the pressure is on AND drive in some runs, Judge wouldn't trade in his mates for the Twins lineup or system. The MVP's most likely targets are the damn Dodgers or an up and coming current playoff team. 

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    I doubt they will, unless no team offers him what he is seeking like Correa, and wants a "pillow" deal too.  Personally, I think he was dumb for turning down the deal he did, even with the year he put up.  He is one year older now, and maybe added a little bit of money to his deal, but I doubt he gets the payday he thinks he is worth.  

    I am not saying he is not one of the best offensive guys in the game, and coming off of one of the best seasons ever.  However, he is on the wrong side of 30, and many players show great regression.  This is also, by far, the best year of career, with 2017, coming in second.  If fans are expecting him to put up these numbers for the next 5 plus years, they will be disappointed.  Will he still put up decent numbers for next 3 seasons, and still put up some 20 plus HR seasons into his later 30's, most likely.  Will he be an MVP guy for next 3 to 8 years, doubtful. 

    I would not want Twins to go after Judge if it meant more than a 4 year deal, and I am sure it will.   

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    That's it - I think the Twins offseason is a failure if we don't sign Correa, Judge, and Rodon.  Anything less than this is a complete system breakdown and failure.  (Any top bullpen names too?)

    Judge can play RF, provide an upgrade over Garlick, and provide an upgrade over Celestino too by being Buxton's main CF backup.  And I can't wait for Judge to be the first player to steal a RF homerun at Target Field when he reaches over the flowerboxes to steal one back. WS championship or bust!

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    On 10/9/2022 at 8:08 AM, RJA said:

    I opened TD site this morning to find this article right above one asking if the Twins should upgrade from Kyle Garlick.  Judge would be a small upgrade I think :).  

    Aaron Judge couldn’t carry Garlicks athletic supporter!  ??

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    I really hope this article was written for click-bait and hope to keep readers coming to this site in the off season. There is NO way the Twins will be in the market for Judge! Knowing this club, they would be more likely to given Buxton another $100mm contract because he was 'such a trooper' this season.

    By the way, even pigs did fly, and this did happen (100% it will NOT) this still doesn't answer the pitching issue we perpetually have! Wait, can Aaron pitch, too?

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    2 hours ago, Muppet said:

    With an OPS of .644, Jake Cave is more than half as good as Judge (1.111), but is much much cheaper than half of Judge's salary. If we got two Jake Caves then their combined OPS would be 1.288. What a deal! Think of the money they'll save!

    And the two Jakes still wouldn't consume as many plate appearances as Aaron, leaving room for some rookies to step up and contribute!  You could have an OPS above 2.000 before you know it.

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    You don't always make a move to get a player. Sometimes it's ok to bid and raise the price of a player even if you don't win a bid. With Judge they would have a superstar. I would offer 42 million a year. If the Yankees match that they have less money to spend on an ace  the twins will have 87 million paid if they lose the players they should. Still keeping Kepler. Add the 42 for Judge we would have 129 million spent. We were 157 before the trade deadline and 144 after. Leaving plenty for an ace. I may be the only one to think this way. But if we don't get Judge we get help everywhere else .

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    You don't always make a move to get a player. Sometimes it's ok to bid and raise the price of a player even if you don't win a bid. With Judge they would have a superstar. I would offer 42 million a year. If the Yankees match that they have less money to spend on an ace  the twins will have 87 million paid if they lose the players they should. Still keeping Kepler. Add the 42 for Judge we would have 129 million spent. We were 157 before the trade deadline and 144 after. Leaving plenty for an ace. I may be the only one to think this way. But if we don't get Judge we get help everywhere else . The same people in this article who think this is a joke. We're people who didn't think we would ever sign correa. Also we can not afford  to have correa judge and rondon.

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    10 minutes ago, Stew said:

    You don't always make a move to get a player. Sometimes it's ok to bid and raise the price of a player even if you don't win a bid. With Judge they would have a superstar. I would offer 42 million a year. If the Yankees match that they have less money to spend on an ace  the twins will have 87 million paid if they lose the players they should. Still keeping Kepler. Add the 42 for Judge we would have 129 million spent. We were 157 before the trade deadline and 144 after. Leaving plenty for an ace. I may be the only one to think this way. But if we don't get Judge we get help everywhere else . The same people in this article who think this is a joke. We're people who didn't think we would ever sign correa. Also we can not afford  to have correa judge and rondon.

    $42M a year starts the conversation, but for how long a contract?

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    1 hour ago, Stew said:

    You don't always make a move to get a player. Sometimes it's ok to bid and raise the price of a player even if you don't win a bid. With Judge they would have a superstar. I would offer 42 million a year. If the Yankees match that they have less money to spend on an ace  the twins will have 87 million paid if they lose the players they should. Still keeping Kepler. Add the 42 for Judge we would have 129 million spent. We were 157 before the trade deadline and 144 after. Leaving plenty for an ace. I may be the only one to think this way. But if we don't get Judge we get help everywhere else . The same people in this article who think this is a joke. We're people who didn't think we would ever sign correa. Also we can not afford  to have correa judge and rondon.

    I guess the idea we're going to drive up the price the Yankees pay fits in this thread.

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    18 hours ago, ashbury said:

    And the two Jakes still wouldn't consume as many plate appearances as Aaron, leaving room for some rookies to step up and contribute!  You could have an OPS above 2.000 before you know it.

    Exactly. I think the front office should hire me right away. I have more tricks like this up my sleeve. 

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