Will Michael Pineda Catch a Break in 2020?

ESPN’s Jeff Passan broke the news of a plan to have all teams play only in Arizona (here are the details). Not a lot of people loved the idea, like Baseball Prospectus’ Craig Goldstein, who really disliked the idea. But that was just one of the ideas being proposed. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported today another one, which would eliminate the traditional leagues and rearrange the clubs in new divisions, playing in Arizona and Florida.

Whether we like them or not, those plans indicate that MLB and the players are very open to having even an unorthodox season, just so baseball can be back. One of the players who could benefit the most from the return of baseball is Twins’ starter Michael Pineda. After so many rough patches in his career, being able to come back and continue playing the way he did in the second portion of 2019 could be huge for him and Minnesota.

A brief look back at his issues

Pineda was a rookie sensation for the Mariners in 2011, being named to an All-Star Game that very year. However, since the conclusion of that season, things have not been easy. To begin with, after being acquired by the Yankees in early 2012, he started dealing with multiple shoulder injuries, which ended up sidelining him for the entire seasons that year and in 2013. Back at the majors in 2014, injuries did not give him a break and another shoulder injury cut his season short, allowing him to deliver only 76 1/3 innings. That was also the year of his infamous pine tar incident, which earned him a 10-game suspension.

In the following two seasons, injuries weren’t as much of a problem for him, but he started to slowly decrease his productivity. Despite reaching at least 160 2/3 innings in both years, his ERA was never lower than 4.37 and he posted a career worst FIP for the time being, of 3.79. Some of his peripherals did improve in that span, like xFIP and K%, but, overall, hitters had figured him out. Then, after a not so promising start of the 2017, he was diagnosed with a partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament, which forced him to undergo Tommy John surgery.

His rebirth with the Twins

We all know the story of how the Twins smartly bet on Pineda in late 2017 and patiently waited for him to be ready for action in 2019 after rehab in the previous year. Nobody knew what to expect, as Pineda was a much, much different player from the one he was with the Yankees and the Mariners. For starters, he was no longer the flamethrower he once was. His velocity dropped to 92.8 mph on his four- seamer, the first time ever it was below 94.1 mph. He relied much more on his command, which had always been decent. Still, it was hard to predict the outcome in the beginning of the season.

Knee issues which started in late 2018 and persisted until the beginning of last year caused Pineda to really struggle in the first months as a Twin. From March to May, he posted a 5.34 ERA in 11 starts, allowing hitters a .803 OPS. He also posted a 5.26 FIP and 4.94 xFIP, while striking out batters only 20.3% of the time. So, yeah, the first impression wasn’t the best.

But when he came back from the IL, he turned things around. In his last 15 starts, from June to September, he posted a 3.10 ERA, 3.18 FIP and 3.87 xFIP. He was incredibly solid and the aforementioned velocity decrease was not at all a problem, because he managed to increase value of most of his go-to pitches. His four-seam had a 9.3 wFA (Four-seam Fastball runs above average), the first time since his rookie year that it was positive. Also, he turned his changeup into one of the best in the game, with a 5.4 wCH (career best) and a .253 wOBA, the 27th-lowest in the league. He was also one of the best pitchers in MLB at pitch tunneling, according to Fangraphs’ Michael Augstine. ESPN defined Pineda as “one of the most underappreciated improvements made by the Twins” in 2019.

The suspension for PED’s. What will happen?

Hopes were really high for what Pineda could bring to the table in the postseason. Unfortunately, he tested positive for hydrochlorothiazide, a banned substance he consumed by taking a medication to help him manage his weight. He was given an 80-game suspension, that was reduced to 60 games after appeal. He started serving his suspension in the final 21 games of the season, with the remaining 39 supposed to be served this year.

But now that the season, if it’s played at all, is much likely going to be shortened, isn’t it feasible to wonder if MLB could alter his suspension? At least for me, it is. In a 162-game season, Pineda’s suspension would represent roughly 24% of the games. Maybe I’m crazy here, but I don’t think it’s absurd to consider this.

If the major leagues actually happen this year, Pineda is certainly one of the players I’m most looking forward to seeing. If his second half of the season last year wasn’t a fluke, he can definitely be one of the great contributors for the Twins to try to win the division and maybe go further in October. He needs this. We need this too.

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