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  • Will Hunter Greene Haunt The Twins?

    Cody Christie

    By Cody Christie

    MLB's 2017 draft is a little over two weeks away. Minnesota has known they have the first overall pick since last fall and the new regime will be doing their due diligence as draft day approaches. With Derek Falvey and Thad Levine overseeing their first draft, there is a lot of pressure for the club to make the right pick.

    The Twins have narrowed their list to a handful of players but it seems more likely that the club will be picking from a trio that includes college players Brenden McKay and Kyle Wright and two-way high school player Hunter Greene. McKay and Wright might be the safer picks because of their collegiate experience. Greene could be a once in a generation player on the mound.

    At this point, it seems more likely for the Twins to select one of the safer college options. This leaves Greene, a player Sports Illustrated called "the star baseball needs," still on the board. Will passing on Greene haunt the Twins in the years to come?

    Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas- USA TODAY Sports

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    Taking A Chance

    There has never been a right-handed high school pitcher taken with the first overall pick. Greene could become the first but there are so many factors that come into developing a high school arm. He is a raw product whose edges would need to be refined over the next 4-5 seasons in the Twins farm system.

    Organizationally, the Twins haven't had the best track record when it comes to developing pitchers. Kohl Stewart and Tyler Jay have both been taken with high first round picks since 2013. Jay was supposed to develop into a top flight starter but the Twins have already moved him to the bullpen. Stewart has shown flashes of being strong but his ERA is north of 5.00 at Double-A.

    One of the reasons Falvey was hired by the Twins was to revamp the pitching staff. "He made it his, probably his passion, to understand pitching and the delivery," Indians manager Terry Francona told the Star Tribune. "We go to him a lot with questions. If he doesn't have the answer, he'll go find it."

    When asked if there was a temptation of taking Greene, Falvey said, "We want to line it up and take the best player that has the best possibility to affect us long term, and sometimes that will be a high school player and sometimes it will be a college player." Falvey could want the challenge of developing Greene or he might have seen enough of him this spring to know that taking a chance isn't the right move.

    West Coast Kid

    Greene has grown up and played almost exclusively on the West Coast. With the Padres sitting with the number three pick, rumors have been swirling about Greene wanting to stay close to home. Baseball America reported, "The rumors of he and his family attempting to maneuver his way to the No. 3 pick with the Padres are a poorly kept secret."

    Baseball America also stated, "The Padres' throwing program is more in line with Greene's program." Every young kid is going to want play near his friends and family. The weather in southern California would be a little more pleasant than the in the upper midwest. He'd also be part of a National League organization where he'd still have the opportunity to bat on a regular basis.

    If Greene's family really doesn't want him playing in Minnesota, they could pressure the Twins with some high demands that might persuade the club into taking a college option.

    Weighing The Cost

    Because the Twins have the first pick and other high picks, they have the largest bonus pool in the draft. The Twins' top draft slot is set at $7,770,700 which is roughly $1.25 million less than what the Philles were slotted for with the top pick in last year's draft.

    Baseball switched over to the current slotting rules five years ago. Dansby Swanson has been the only top pick to receive the highest signing bonus. In 2012, the Twins gave out the highest bonus to Byron Buxton after the Astros worked a deal with Carlos Correa. Houston was able to use the savings to take Lance McCullers and Rio Ruiz with some of their other early picks.

    Since he is a high school player, Greene is going to want the highest bonus in the draft. Minnesota could do something similar to what Houston did in 2012. By signing McKay or Wright to a smaller bonus than Greene, the Twins could use that savings to go over slot on the 35th and 37th picks. However, the Twins might believe Greene is the best available player and take him no matter the cost.

    What are your feelings as the draft moves closer? Is Greene going to haunt the Twins? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

    Cody Christie is a Twins writer and content contributor. His writing can be found exclusively at Twins Daily and his voice can be heard on radio stations throughout the Upper Midwest. Outside of the Twins, he is a father, high school teacher, and avid runner.
    Follow Cody Christie on Twitter: nodaktwinsfan

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    Featured Comments

    ashbury

    ashbury 48,546

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    I agree, but the lack of risk communication is universal among all types of prospects. If they were being rational, they wouldn't label anyone as 'safe'. Every player is 'un-safe' and unlikely to be even an average MLB player. So if no one is 'safe' and everyone is a 'risk' we're really just talking about degrees of those terms.

    ... at which point we label the guys at one end of the spectrum as "safe" and those at the other end "risky", simply for brevity.

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    Bob Sacamento

    Bob Sacamento 2,046

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    ... at which point we label the guys at one end of the spectrum as "safe" and those at the other end "risky", simply for brevity.

    more or less publications have been doing so in recent years, In the BA Prospect Handbook they've put not only the 20-80 scouting scale but have also added a Risk assessment of Low, Medium, High, and Extreme.

     

    I am not a scout but from what publications I have seen

     

    McKay as a LHP is a 45-50 now and a future 55-60 with low to medium risk

    FB 50-55/55-60 

    CV 40-45/55

    COM  50/55-60

     

    Hunter Greene is a 35-40 now and a future 65-70 with high to extreme risk

    FB 65-70/75-80

    CV 35-40/50

    COM 40-45/50

     

    Wright is a 45-50 now and a future 55-60 with medium risk

    FB 55/60

    CV 45-50/55-60

    COM 45/50-55

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    Thrylos

    Thrylos 8,325

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    Just saying...Gibson, Wimmers, and Jay were all college draft picks

     

    Gibson and Wimmers were late round picks.  Both of them were the 7th College pitchers taken in their draft.

    Jay was a reliever and his future has yet to be determined.

     

    Cannot be compared to Wright or McKay.  Really.

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    nicksaviking

    nicksaviking 26,755

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

     

    ... at which point we label the guys at one end of the spectrum as "safe" and those at the other end "risky", simply for brevity.

     

    Which still seems misleading to me. When comparing poisons we don't say that cyanide is safe simply because it's possibly less lethal than anthrax.

     

    When these pundits use the word 'safe' I'm guessing there are way too many readers jumping to the conclusion that the guy is a near lock to be an average if not quality major leaguer when the likelihood is far from that.

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    Taildragger8791

    Taildragger8791 1,614

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    Gibson and Wimmers were late round picks.  Both of them were the 7th College pitchers taken in their draft.

    Jay was a reliever and his future has yet to be determined.

     

    Cannot be compared to Wright or McKay.  Really.

     

    I don't see what it matters if a guy is an early or late first round college draft pick with regards to expected health.

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    ashbury

    ashbury 48,546

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    Which still seems misleading to me. When comparing poisons we don't say that cyanide is safe simply because it's possibly less lethal than anthrax.

    This makes it sound as though every prospect fails due to one cause or other.

     

    Agreed, that the pundits ought to be doing a more careful job of explaining what is meant by risk. But I don't want to have to read a treatise in every prospect evaluation. What better term would you advocate than "safe"? Would "relatively safe" do the job?

     

     

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    nicksaviking

    nicksaviking 26,755

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    This makes it sound as though every prospect fails due to one cause or other.

     

    Agreed, that the pundits ought to be doing a more careful job of explaining what is meant by risk. But I don't want to have to read a treatise in every prospect evaluation. What better term would you advocate than "safe"? Would "relatively safe" do the job?

    Just the word "safer" as it is clearly an indicator of comparison where as "safe" is a generally accepted adjective of clear definition.

     

    I know it sounds like symantics but it isn't, in this case it is regularly being used to sway opinion. And to be clear, plenty of people here are using "safer".

     

    And honestly, I'm 50/50 on Greene and Wright right now. I was heavily in Greene's camp a few weeks ago.

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    Monkeypaws

    Monkeypaws 3,289

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    This thread shows that a lot of posters don't understand how much of a long-shot Greene is. 

     

     

    Greene a longshot - hmm. Excellent makeup, great physique, baseball skills up the wazoo, electric arm, all in a 17 year old.

    Longshot to be Cy Young, maybe, longshot unlike any other 18-21 year old, mmm, he looks more like a sure-shot to play MLB as an impact player to me.

    My crystal ball is no better than anyone elses, but to call him a longshot is, well, a longshot.

     

    Law of averages should eventually weigh in favor of a RH HS pitcher.

     

    There are very few sure bets in the draft: I'd like to see the Twins roll the dice here - they have 2 other picks in the top 40. 

     

    Cosmic tumblers are aligning....

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    diehardtwinsfan

    diehardtwinsfan 14,830

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

     

    I don't see what it matters if a guy is an early or late first round college draft pick with regards to expected health.

     

    Sure, but using that logic, you wouldn't draft a pitcher... ever.  That doesn't work either, especially from a team that needs pitching, has the first overall pick, and the clear BPAs in the draft are pitchers.

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    Taildragger8791

    Taildragger8791 1,614

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    Sure, but using that logic, you wouldn't draft a pitcher... ever.  That doesn't work either, especially from a team that needs pitching, has the first overall pick, and the clear BPAs in the draft are pitchers.

     

    I'm not sure what you're talking about or what you think I said. The only point I made was to refute the idea that a college pitcher is somehow more of a sure thing to stay healthy than a high school pitcher just because he has more years of use on his arm without injury (yet). That's all I was ever saying. I understand why that idea makes sense logically but I'm not aware of any statistics which bear that out. And the recent experience of the Twins has actually been the reverse of that. The next reply to me said the Twins' experience was irrelevant because their pitchers were mostly drafted later in the first round, but I don't see why that matters if we're limiting it to a discussion of health.

     

    If someone wants to do the analysis I'd be more than interested to see it. But I certainly didn't say anything about not drafting pitchers in general.

    Edited by Taildragger8791
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    glunn

    glunn 6,247

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    I would be interested to know how McKay, Wright and Gore pitched when they were seniors in high school in comparison with Greene.

     

    I also hope that the Twins are spending a huge amount of effort studying the pitching motions of all of these prospects, with input from top experts to project durability as best they can.

     

    I hope that they pick Greene, but only if they determine that his pitching motion is consistent with durability and that Greene seems likely to be able to develop better secondary pitches (and a fastball with better movement). Greene is raw, but that also means that he may benefit more from great coaching, because he has had less time to develop bad habits.

     

    I live in the Los Angeles area and have friends who have some remote association with Greene, including a friend whose son is on Greene's HS team. I am hearing is that Greene's father has been proactive in protecting Greene's arm against overuse. If this is true and the kid has as good a makeup as some people think, then I would pick him, but only with a commitment to expend the resources necessary to give him the best possible development.  However, I am almost certainly missing a lot of important factors, because I am not spending the hundreds of hours of hard work that, hopefully, the Twins are spending on this.

     

    It's fun to discuss this on TD, but the FO has access to far more information than we do, including slow motion videos that can be shown to multiple experts, and detailed research regarding each prospect's character and attitude, including discussions with their coaches and teammates. We see only the part of the iceberg that is above the waterline. Hopefully the Twins are sending people under the iceberg and spending hundreds of person hours studying every angle as to all of these prospects. If I were Falvine, I would want to know everything that might possibly be relevant, and have my army of scouts and analysts working 12 hours per day on this.

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    The Wise One

    The Wise One 689

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I think that regardless of who they pick there will be someone out there stating how much better the front office could have done with the pick.  There were quite a few people voice an opinion on Carlos Correa being picked over Buxton. The last few years those voices were silenced. 3 years from now, who knows. 

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2012&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round

     

    give it a look. 5 years out. Of the top  players drafted. it is the high school position players are having an impact. The 2 college players doing well are Stroman, Gausman and Wacha All college pitchers. No  hs pitchers, yet.  

     

     

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    bighat

    bighat 7,885

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    I think the hype on Greene has been made so enormous, that a lot of Twins fans are going to be very, very bummed out if the Twins do not select him.

     

    Including me, I think.  Sure I'd be okay with the other prospects, but c'mon.  I want Greene with the #1 pick.

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    drivlikejehu

    drivlikejehu 2,201

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    I would be interested to know how McKay, Wright and Gore pitched when they were seniors in high school in comparison with Greene.

     

    Gore is a HS pitcher. But with respect to Greene's potential, this is the wrong way to look at it. For every McKay or Wright that took major steps forward in college, 10 or 20 pitchers improved to a far lesser extent. 

     

    Even though Greene throws hard, he does still need a lot of development, and the track record of HS players in both college and professional ball demonstrates a high level of uncertainty. Some definitely do improve dramatically, and Greene would be scary good if that happened and he stayed healthy. But that's not really a high percentage outcome.

     

    His upside is such that he belongs high in the draft . . . he just doesn't belong at #1 if there's a more advanced pitcher that also has high upside.

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    Oldgoat_MN

    Oldgoat_MN 2,434

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    And a better one than Greene.

    I was going to post a similar thought, though without quite the certainty you have.

    According to the scouting reports I've read, it appears that Gore has excellent command and plus secondary pitches. He also has a higher K rate than Greene. All this while sitting with a FB in the mid 90s. 

    Unfortunately (for the Twins, not him) he has risen on draft boards significantly since April. I had wondered early if we could sign him substantially under slot, but he has no reason to sign for $4.5 million now. He's going to get more than that from somebody.

    Edited by Oldgoat_MN
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    ALessKosherScott

    ALessKosherScott 247

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

    This makes it sound as though every prospect fails due to one cause or other.

     

    Agreed, that the pundits ought to be doing a more careful job of explaining what is meant by risk. But I don't want to have to read a treatise in every prospect evaluation. What better term would you advocate than "safe"? Would "relatively safe" do the job?

     

    My problem isn't so much safe as the blanket risk of high school pitcher v. college pitcher. Greene is going to succeed or fail for reasons completely unrelated to Josh Beckett, Matt Harrington or Colt Griffin. Ditto Kyle Wright and the bevy of college pitchers who've gone high. It's not a matter of safe because there isn't a Steven Strasburg in the draft who you could put into your rotation tomorrow in this draft. It's a question of which risk is most appealing to you, the potential that Greene blows his arm out tomorrow or the risk that McKay ad Wright may simply not be good enough.

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    Bob Sacamento

    Bob Sacamento 2,046

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    Including me, I think.  Sure I'd be okay with the other prospects, but c'mon.  I want Greene with the #1 pick.

     

     

    Me too.

    But are you okay if in three-four years Greene is turned into a shut down closer because he could never develop quality third pitch or honed his curveball as a frontline starter?  

     

    Then if you don't take Hunter and does turn that curveball into gold and adds a cutter, are you okay watching him star SD or Cincy's rotation for the next decade? Instead you took McKay or Wright who turned into a good quality #3 MLB starter from the get-go.

     

    Those are the questions Twins' fans need to ask themselves.

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    Bark's Lounge

    Bark's Lounge 6,088

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    But are you okay if in three-four years Greene is turned into a shut down closer because he could never develop quality third pitch or honed his curveball as a frontline starter?  

     

    Then if you don't take Hunter and does turn that curveball into gold and adds a cutter, are you okay watching him star SD or Cincy's rotation for the next decade? Instead you took McKay or Wright who turned into a good quality #3 MLB starter from the get-go.

     

    Those are the questions Twins' fans need to ask themselves.

    I'm a gambling man. Go big or go home. This time around I choose High Risk/High Reward.

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    bighat

    bighat 7,885

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I agree that drafting a High School pitcher with the #1 overall pick is risky.  The recent #1 overall pitchers who have had success are David Price and Stephen Strasburg, and both of them came from college programs. 

     

    That said, last year 6 high school pitchers were taken in the first 17 picks, which is a record high.  So maybe the trend is moving towards taking high upside guys and developing the raw talent.  I think Greene fits that mold.  If Favley and Levine are in charge, I will trust the process if they take him.

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    drivlikejehu

    drivlikejehu 2,201

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    I agree that drafting a High School pitcher with the #1 overall pick is risky.  The recent #1 overall pitchers who have had success are David Price and Stephen Strasburg, and both of them came from college programs. 

     

    That said, last year 6 high school pitchers were taken in the first 17 picks, which is a record high.  So maybe the trend is moving towards taking high upside guys and developing the raw talent.  I think Greene fits that mold.  If Favley and Levine are in charge, I will trust the process if they take him.

     

    Well in certain years, the crop of college pitchers does not include many guys with both upside and lower risk.

     

    If a high school pitcher has ace potential and the college guy is a #4 type, it's an easy call to go with the former. 

     

    The difference here is that Wright has upside. 

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    old nurse

    old nurse 2,366

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    Why do so many Posters think the Twins can get Kyle Wright or Brenden McKay at Basement Bargain price?

    Economics. If they do not sign they have no leverage next year.

     

    Slot values.

    1. Twins: $7,770,700
    2. Reds: $7,193,200
    3. Padres: $6,668,100
    4. Rays: $6,153,600
    5. Braves: $5,707,300
    6. A's: $5,303,000

     

    The money drops quickly.  There is no need for the top three clubs to sign someone for full slot value. Appel signed for 1.5 million underslot . Swanson went 2 million underslot. Moniak was almost 3 million under. Aiken did not sign and lost a lot of money

    http://m.mlb.com/news/article/183906680/2016-draft-signing-and-bonus-tracker/

    http://m.mlb.com/news/article/130246508/2015-draft-signing-and-bonus-tracker/

    http://m.mlb.com/news/article/79082538/2014-draft-signingbonus-tracker/

    Top picks generally do not get full slot value

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