Why Isn't Mitch Garver Playing More?

 

  On 5/30/2018 at 1:09 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

The Twins did not need a fifth starter until April 22nd, over three weeks into the season.

 

Fernando Romero made his first start on May 2nd.

 

You're complaining about ten days. Ten days.

 

Never mind the fact that had Romero been on the Minnesota roster, he would have rusted away for three weeks before getting a start. Meanwhile, in Rochester he got several starts and 21 IP to shake off the rust and come up to Minnesota as prepared as can be.

 

The front office's moves aren't only defensible, they're logical. You don't add a rookie as a fifth starter on Opening Day if you play your home games in Target Field because the dude is going to waste away through most of April.

 

Get through the off day and weather madness of early April, then call up a rookie as fifth starter. Bonus points that you get a full additional year of control over the player as a result.

 

The evidence conclusively demonstrates  that Romero should have been on the opening day roster from day one with a regular rotation spot, not just as a fifth starter. 

 

Only in the Twins organization is leaving players in the minors so you get "an extra year of control" the dominating factor.  It is almost as if we want these players to fail rather than have to eventually pay them.  

 

Even though this organization has been absolutely terrible for almost a decade we make our prospects work through every level of the minors and often make them repeat levels despite their success. A player like Mitch Garver is still officially a rookie despite being 27 years old and the team not having much talent at catcher through those seasons Garver was in the minors.  The team prefers 30+ year old no hit journey men than developing their own prospects for the long run.

 

 

 

Romero: No IP above AA coming in to the season. No need for a 5th starter to begin the year. Whether you fault the Twins for wanting a final look at Hughes or not, it still makes sense. Nothing wrong with him beginning the season in Rochester.

 

But this article is about Garver:

 

1] It must just be me, but when I watch Garver, I'm not seeing but a couple "oops" plays or drops. I'm just not witnessing all the dropped balls and such I keep reading about.

 

2] Being a 27yo rookie catcher is not a death sentence. It's an unusual position to learn. 19-22yo phenom like Purge and Mauer just aren't common. Yes, he is learning somewhat on the job, and he's been pushed to the forefront quicker than expected. But....

 

3] Most minor leaguers split time with other prospects and most don't enjoy an "every day" status. Other guys play to develop, and guys play different positions for learning and potential career flexibility. The Twins have always thought enough of his offense to move him around and keep his bat in the lineup.

 

4] Offensively, he has a compact swing, seems to generate pretty good power, and seems to have hit potential. I don't want a starter catcher only because he hits, but it's a valuable quality.

 

5] FWIW... and I posted this in a game thread a couple night ago because I thought it was interesting...from April 1st through May 25th, the Twins has 12 games in which they pitched a shutout or allowed only a single run. Garver caught 7 of this games, Castro 3 and Wilson 2. Odorizzi was the SP in 5 of those games, Berrios and Lynn in the other 2. Does the swap of Castro for Wilson skew this? Maybe. Does this mean Garver is good defensively or better than given credit for? Not necessarily. But I found it interesting.

In regard to Wilson, I don't think he was a bad signing for Rochester and a fill in catcher when guys get dinged. As a regular man on the roster, not so crazy about him. I think he's playing more than we would lime simply because Garver is a bit of a work in progress and Molitor just doesn't feel totally comfortable naming him as the primary catcher yet. It's not a condemnation, but a process.

 

Personally, I was sorry to see Giminez go and not be signed to a milb contract. But I get it. Garver may have felt like looking over his shoulder if Giminez was around.

 

  On 5/31/2018 at 12:51 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

Most organizations do this, actually.

 

Because it means you get an entire extra year of control over a player.

 

You're acting as if Romero has been shafted by this organization somehow. He had 90 IP in 2016 and 125 IP in 2017. Coming into 2018, he had all of zero innings above AA.

 

You're building this narrative around the player that simply does not exist in reality.

 

No, I have not mentioned Romero being shafted.  The people who have been shafted are Twins fans that have had to put up with a miserable product while they trot out the likes of Matt Belisle, Dilon Gee, Buddy Boshers, Craig Breslow, Nik Turley, Drew Rucinski, Tim Melville, Nick Tepsech, and Chris Heston.   Yet, it took them half the year to get perhaps their most effective reliever up to the team, Trevor Hildenberger,  they declined to give players like Luke Bard a chance, and kept their most promising pitchers in the minors.

 

While I get that it perhaps it is best to be cautious when you have other quality alternatives and a consistent winning record, but the Twins do not have that.  

  On 5/31/2018 at 7:01 PM, mlhouse said:

No, I have not mentioned Romero being shafted. The people who have been shafted are Twins fans that have had to put up with a miserable product while they trot out the likes of Matt Belisle, Dilon Gee, Buddy Boshers, Craig Breslow, Nik Turley, Drew Rucinski, Tim Melville, Nick Tepsech, and Chris Heston. Yet, it took them half the year to get perhaps their most effective reliever up to the team, Trevor Hildenberger, they declined to give players like Luke Bard a chance, and kept their most promising pitchers in the minors.

 

While I get that it perhaps it is best to be cautious when you have other quality alternatives and a consistent winning record, but the Twins do not have that.

So, I get what you're saying about making business decisions over baseball decisions, but I think you're perspective is skewed by hindsight bias, and Romero might not be your best example. A lot of the pitchers you listed cost us next to nothing and contributed to a playoff pen after we list May and Kinzler who you left off that list.

 

Hilde wasn't that highly regarded. Guys like Pressly, Rodgers, Buesenitz, Curtis, and Tonkin were given opportunities as well. I agree that our inability to project our own prospects is disheartening. But playing prospect roulette makes just as little sense as waiver wire roulette. Probably less. I have no problem with the use of Romero coming off a shoulder issue last year.

Edited May 31, 2018 by Jham

 

  On 5/31/2018 at 7:48 PM, Jham said:

So, I get what you're saying about making business decisions over baseball decisions, but I think you're perspective is skewed by hindsight bias, and Romero might not be your best example. A lot of the pitchers you listed cost us next to nothing and contributed to a playoff pen after we list May and Kinzler who you left off that list.

Hilde wasn't that highly regarded. Guys like Pressly, Rodgers, Buesenitz, Curtis, and Tonkin were given opportunities as well. I agree that our inability to project our own prospects is disheartening. But playing prospect roulette makes just as little sense as waiver wire roulette. Probably less. I have no problem with the use of Romero coming off a shoulder issue last year.

 

Hindsight bias?  I have been saying this for years on this forum.  To rebuild you need to get your prospects up from the minors and develop them at the major league baseball level.  Some will be successful.  Some will fail.  The Twins have not done this, slowly moving players up the levels of the minor leagues.

 

Compare how the Yankees moved Aaron Judge through their system.  Drafted in 2013, he debuted in 2014 moving from A to A+.  In 2015 he started in AA and moved to AAA.  In 2016 he started in AAA and then was called up.  IN 2017 he hits 52 major league home runs.  If Judge was a Twins minor league player he would have spent 2013 in Cedar Rapids.  Then 2014 in Ft Myers, maybe getting a late season call up to AA.  Then 2015 back in Ft Myers because you know, all the ball mashing he was doing just wasn't proof enough but then they would convince themselves he is ready for AA.  2016 AA.  2017 probably back in AA but AAA bound once one of the 30 year old journeymen we had there moved up to the major league levels.  THEN, maybe he would be brought up sometime in 2017-2018 range because hey, we get one more year of control then, right?

 

 

 

  On 6/1/2018 at 12:50 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yeah... and let's not even bring up the path Lewis appears to be on. He could be in A+ by mid-season and on track to reach Minnesota as a 20 year old (Judge was 24 when he debuted, older than Rosario, Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Buxton, Berrios, Romero, et al).

Judge played for three seasons in college. He wasn't drafted till summer 2013. He didn't play pro ball till 2014, was in AAA in 2015, and was in the majors end of 2016.

 

Fast.

Edited June 1, 2018 by jimmer

 

  On 6/1/2018 at 12:03 AM, Mr. Brooks said:

Aaron Judge played 71 MORE games in the minors before his debut than Byron Buxton did.
And Judge was a college draft pick, Buxton a HS draft pick.

Brent Rooker made it to AA 7 games FASTER than Judge did.

 

 

1.  Minor league games as a measure is meaningless in Buxton's case because he missed so much time being injured.  

 

2.  Unlike Buxton and Rooker Aaron Judge did not play minor league baseball in his draft year, 2013.

 

3.   Aaron Judge played was promoted to the majors in 2.5 years of minor league baseball.  That is a full year less than Buxton and will almost certainly be less than Rooker.  Aaron Judge is only 1.5 years older than Buxton.

 

4.  WIth respect to Rooker, Rooker was a college senior when he was drafted.  For him to be succesful he needs to rush through the minors.

 

5.   The other aspect that you miss, is that the Yankees are a competitive team.  The last time they had a sub 500 season was 1992 and Byron Buxton and Brent Rooker were not even born.  For them to accelerate their prospects to the major league level and put them into a team that is competitive is a lot different than a team that is losing 95+ games on a consistent basis.   

 

  On 5/25/2018 at 7:00 PM, ThejacKmp said:

I think we're also forgetting that Garver has never been an everyday catcher in the minors. He's shared time with Turner and gotten reps at 1B/OF/DH. Last year he caught 67 games which, given his late season promotion, was around half the games. The Twins may want to phase him up to catching 80% of the time so he doesn't get overwhelmed. I think we should hold off on criticizing the Twins til we see how this is in a month.

For the future, I want Wilson for a month while they look at Astudillo and the market. I want them in on Lucroy if the A's sell and have no interest in Realmuto (and his price). If Lucroy isn't available, bring up Astudillo.
 

 

 

Actually, including his time with the Twins, he caught 80 games last year, but he has never caught more than that.

 

2017:  80

2016:  60

2015:  77

2014:  63

 

Since Castro got hurt, he's started 16/27 games (not sure if any of those were DH).  If he keeps that rate up, he will catch 63 more games which brings his total to 87 games at Catcher, which is more than he ever has.

 

Honestly, if he catches any more than he already is, its extremely likely that he would break down physically.

 

  On 6/5/2018 at 4:53 PM, Mike Sixel said:

how do you know that last part is true? I just can't see how we know that at all.

 

You don't think catching more games increases the risk of injuries?  Really?

 

Help me find a catcher who had a significant increase in games caught between his final minor league season and first major league season.

Edited June 5, 2018 by clone52

 

  On 6/5/2018 at 5:31 PM, ThejacKmp said:

I would guess almost every catcher since minor league seasons are often much shorter - 20 to 40 games. Stands to reason many catchers would catch more in the bigs than in the minors.

 

I don't think it's a matter of being extremely more likely to break down, I think it's just the day-in-day-out things that go into being a catcher: knowing batters, learning the game plan, dealing with the minor injuries from the day before. Garver may not have been ready to be effective as an everyday catcher yet and will need to phase up to that.

 

He has been catching more often in the last two weeks (2/3 DET, 2/3 SEA, 2/3 KC, 2/4 CLE) than he was previously. He'll catch 2/4 of this Chicago series but that's  due to the double header creating two day games. I'd be surprised if he wasn't catching 2/3 and 3/4 of the remaining games.

 

Its hard to find many catchers that jump up more than 10 games caught between the minors and majors.  Realmuto and Mike Zunino jumped 20 games.  Buster Posey jumped 10 games.

 

In fact, when healthy, Posey has started between 96 and 122 games a season.  Garver on pace for 85-90 seems about right.

 

If he's feeling good later in the season, no reason not to pick up the pace a little bit, but as of now, if the Twins are playoff contenders, does anyone really want to see Garver on the DL in August/September?  

 

I would think 4 games a week would be the right workload if he isn’t hampered by any nagging injuries.

 

Seems like he has been close to the rate since Castro left though I think he was held back one game after taking a foul ball in the knee.