Which Twins Will the Deadened Ball Hurt the Most?

We all know that in 2019 several home run records were shattered across baseball. It turns out that MLB had made several changes to the ball that reduced it’s “drag”. Long story short, the makeup of the ball offered less resistance when traveling through the air, thus adding distance onto batted balls.

We don’t know what tactics MLB will use to reverse the offensive surge in recent years, but reducing the drag on the ball may be easiest which can presumably be accomplished by altering the surface of the ball to make it less smooth for example. The result is that players who often sneak homers into the bleachers may not get that extra push to get their batted balls over the wall. Making this assumption, let’s see who may be at the top of the list for Twins players that could be affected most.

Jorge Polanco

Polanco had an average home run distance of 393 feet in 2019 and hit 23 home runs. Statcast uses a measurement called “no doubters” that tracks home runs that would have made it out of every MLB stadium. No doubters are a good way to get a feel for whether a player’s raw ability to drive baseballs out of the park is legit. For context, 47.6% of Nelson Cruz’s home runs were no doubters, while 39.1% of Polanco’s would have left any MLB ballpark. To be fair, Polanco has never been highly touted for his homerun power, and we likely saw a career high in 2019 from the Twins newly converted second baseman. A few feet off of some of his fly balls may hurt him in 2021, but assuming he’s healthy he should still be able to pick up some extra base hits.

Mitch Garver

Garver suffered a brutal 2020 but it had more to do with swing and miss than anything wrong with the ball. Still, assuming Garv Sauce is back to his normal fastball punishing self in 2021, it may surprise you that while his average home run distance of 400 feet was better than Polanco’s in 2019, his no doubter rate of 38.7% was worse. Looking back, it’s easy to remember plenty of Garver’s homers in 2019 just barely making it out, and it’s evidenced by his 25.1 expected home runs in that stellar season as compared to the 31 he actually hit. While the return of 2019 Garv Sauce is likely out of the question, his elite plate skills and exit velocity should still make him a formidable hitter, even if the 30 home run threshold will be difficult to reach again.

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Max Kepler

Kepler is perhaps the most worrisome when it comes to deadening the baseball. In 2019 Kepler’s average of 392 feet per home run was less than Polanco’s as was his no doubter percentage of 38.9%. The one thing Kepler has going for him is that basically all of his home runs are pulled and therefore don’t have as far to travel to reach the seats. Take a look at his 2020 spray chart.

Kepler’s pull tendencies may help him avoid completely cratering in his home run production, but taking a few feet off of some of his fly balls would certainly cost him as evidenced by his low average home run distance. Furthermore, Kepler is a low batting average, moderate on base hitter who hasn’t hit left handed pitching for most of his career. Kepler may stand to lose the most if the new ball doesn’t allow him to provide 30 home run power, as aside from defense, the gap between him and an MLB ready Trevor Larnach could quickly close.

Bonus: Eddie Rosario

Eddie is no longer a Twin but with an average HR distance of 392 feet in 2019 with only one third of his 33 being no doubters, Eddie in particular could feel the pain of the new baseball. With the ball possibly inhibiting the fly balls Eddie creates out of pitches nobody should be swinging at, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a drop off to a 20-25 HR hitter rather than a 30+ bat. He’s not exactly a star on the exit velocity leaderboards and a lot of his batted balls over the fence aren’t well struck.

It turned out to be a great year to build around defense and avoid the “Bomba Squad” label, as the Twins should have a well rounded team that doesn’t rely on fly balls leaving the park to be successful. That being said, a few players lacking prominent raw power may not put up the stats we’ve come to expect. Do you think any other Twins may be feeling the pain of the new ball? Let us know below!

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