What the Early Twins Offseason Rumblings Tell Us

A.) Is Odorizzi better/more proven than Wheeler?  I get the QO on Odorizzi, but locking someone up extremely comparable to Odo for $100-$110?  I alternate between clapping and cringing.

2.) The Sox...They're legit.  Just how good is Grandal though?  I'm not sold.  However, what the heck did Giolito eat/supplement last year?  He went from "meh" for almost his entire MLB career to best in the division last year.  Wow.  Applause necessary.  His K rate increase alone is astonishing.  I didn't even mention Eloy or Kopech.

and D.) I'm excited.  A Sox & Twins division race would be like it was in the 00's.  

Bidding for Wheeler might be to high. Go hard after Ryu. I'd go 4 years $80 million. Some might think that's high. I might have until seeing Gibson's contract. Might not be enough.

Then maybe offer Hamels a multi year deal to get him here. He's a lefty who could be still hold valuab as a reliever if he doesn't work out as a starter. With the three batter minimum rule in effect, his starting experience might play well as a left handed reliever used to facing top right-handed talent. Rotation:

Berrios

Odorizzi

Ryu

Hamels

(Smeltzer/Thorpe/Dobnak)/Pineda

I'd prefer Cole or Strasburg at the top of that rotation but I don't have much hope that happens. The upside of this scenario is we wouldn't have to give up a draft pick, and you wouldn't have any 5+ year commitments.

Still hoping for a blockbuster trade out of left field that is better than any of our dreams. I still believe It’s the best route for several years of sustainable success.

Hate the thought of paying an average 28 year old starting pitcher like Wheeler 100 million. Potential be damned, that is a lot of money to gamble on improvement at that age. Count me out. Find someone else that isn't gathering so much interest. Reminds me of the Kris Benson love back in the day. I'd bet he'd get a nice payday at this point in his career too, only to be remembered mostly for his hot wife now.

Love that they're looking at moving Sano. A short deal for moose or Donald would be a great idea. Big question is if Cron can duplicate first half success. If I want to compete for a world series, the less questions the better.

Wheeler is a top 20 bWAR pitcher over the last two years (7.4 total). He is not an average player. He has pitched 50+ more innings than Odorizzi the past two years.  Odorizzi will be paid $17.8M next year.  Wheeler will take more than that.  We need another high end pitcher who also eats innings (377.2 the past two years).  It looks like he will get a 5 year deal between $100 and $110M.  Who gives a crap if there is some decline the last year or two?  The window is open!  Now is the time to spend.

Odo is a 5.5 IP per game guy, Wheeler can get you 7+ with more regularity.

Love the speculation and thought provoking article.  I just do not know if Wheeler is as good as team offers look, but at 28 his next four years could be his best and if so, sign him up!  What are we saving our money for?  Grabbing Bumgartner would be my second choice. 

Woof. You'd rather offer Ryu one less year for the same money than Wheeler?

Why not? First off, he's a better pitcher. Wheeler might take two more years commitment. He might never be as good as Ryu over the course of a longer contract.

One thing that might not be as important to you as it is to me, Ryu has no QO attached to him.

Find a better pitcher that no one is interested in? How does that work?

Where do people think these pitchers are going to come from?

If you think a team should wait until it is good to sign free agents, you get the list that is available at that point.... Not some list that doesn't exist.

Pineda?    Downside is the 60 game suspension but for the most part losing Pineda and gaining Wheeler would be a zero sum to me.   

In an environment where Kyle Gibson gets $30 Million over 3 years, probably this is a year to stay out of the bidding wars on the top and 2nd tier free agents. Re-sign Pineda, and go with Odorizzi and Berríos as the top 3. Then let the rest of the Twins roster fight for the last two spots Graterol, Dobnak, Thorpe, Romero, Smeltzer and others can try to prove themselves. Or the Twins should look to make a trade for x starter. Otherwise, the Twins pay big bucks for Wheeler based on potential more than past performance, or pay big bucks for aging and likely declining pitchers like Ryu and Mad-Bum.

And I understand Pineda has a few games remaining on his suspension.

I like Ryu, I think he could be a good get for 2/$35m but the dude is old and he isn't the type of pitcher who will age well because guys who are throwing 91mph have no margin for aging.

2/35?! That doesn't seem a realistic assessment for a guy with a 2.96 era prior year. Did you see what Gibson got?!

Yeah, he's 33. Kyle Gibson is 32 and had a much worse 2019 than Ryu.... 3 years 30 million.

I think it's a sign that this year's free agent pitchers are gonna make a killing. You wanna pay Wheeler 110 million, well would you wanna pay more than that? Just saying, look at that Gibson contract. We might need to throw out the guesstimates.

A.) Is Odorizzi better/more proven than Wheeler?  I get the QO on Odorizzi, but locking someone up extremely comparable to Odo for $100-$110?  I alternate between clapping and cringing.

 

2.) The Sox...They're legit.  Just how good is Grandal though?  I'm not sold.  However, what the heck did Giolito eat/supplement last year?  He went from "meh" for almost his entire MLB career to best in the division last year.  Wow.  Applause necessary.  His K rate increase alone is astonishing.  I didn't even mention Eloy or Kopech.

 

and D.) I'm excited.  A Sox & Twins division race would be like it was in the 00's.  

Giolito only has one other full season to compare last season to. He was drafted 16th overall (called the best pitcher of his draft but had a recent injury) and was once the #3 prospect in MLB. He hasn't been meh his entire career, he just had a minor adjustment period. Ace has always been his projection.

The window is wide open, the White Sox are charging hard and Cleveland proved they are still very formidable. Falvey and Levine need to make every effort to at least secure a seat at the negotiating tables for Cole and Strasburg which you have to kind of wonder if they are with the reports that they’ve yet to make an offer on Wheeler. I highly doubt either of them could be swayed to come to MN but as an organization that wants to be taken seriously and with a clear need for a premium starting pitcher they need to at least make the effort. Either of these two would be game changers.

They need to come out of this offseason with one of Cole, Strasburg, Wheeler, Bumgarner, I guess Ryu (though hopefully on a much shorter term deal) or an equivalent talent via trade.The payroll situation is in great shape so there is no excuse, they can afford the risk of one potential bad contract on the books. If they fail to upgrade this rotation the offseason is a failure no matter what else they do.

As a fan the only other things I hope to see them accomplish is adding an infield bat (don’t care which position) and a backup catcher. I love Astudillo but believe his value is in his versatility and he’s a perfect 26th man. Would love to see Castro back or Chirinos, Russell Martin, Austin Romine, Maldonado or Lucroy. Romo or another bargain veteran bullpen addition would be nice but not a priority.

Still hoping for a blockbuster trade out of left field that is better than any of our dreams. I still believe It’s the best route for several years of sustainable success.

I hope they fill the rotation with free agents first, see how that works. Maybe it goes well, if it doesn't then trade. The advantage of waiting until the regular season is you get to see how well pitchers are performing during the season and target guys who are playing at a high level at the time of the trade.

They have fifty to seventy million in payroll space. Why not sign good players? You think a contending team should go into the year with two rookie pitchers, and sign a guy that is going to miss one fourth of his starts, so you need another rookie for those starts?

Financial Flexibility is the key for winning teams, having the ability to sign or trade for high price players but choosing not to is more important than not being able to sign or trade for those players because you are hamstrung by payroll. </s>

1] A solid argument could be made for Ryu and Bumgarner being equal to or better as a signing than Wheeler. But what you banking/projecting on Wheeler is 30yo come May with legit mods 90's velocity combined with normal experience and 2 yrs removed from surgery. A change of scenery with a new staff and you could easily be looking at the best 3yrs or so of his career.

Yes $20-22M ish is too much. But that's probably what it is going to take. As of now, not only can you afford it without compromising the roster, but he would be the only large and long term deal on the books.

2] As to Castro, his coming back makes too much sense for both parties. You can say the Twins may not be overly anxious to bring him back, and that's fair. But he hasn't signed anywhere else yet, and we've seen a couple surprising signings at the catcher position so far. To this point, I don't think I've ever heard rumors of anyone else interested.

3] Not sure about Sano to 1B yet. But the FO would be foolish not to consider all avenues to improve the team. I don't feel they are pushing that move yet. But if you aren't sold on Cron being 100% at this time, you obviously look at all contingencies at your disposal.

4] Bullpen wise, they really need a LH without moving Smeltzer or Thorpe. They need to stay starting for now. But if you look at what's available, sure seems like low 1yr deal options and fliers. But then again, that has proven to work many times, while tossing money at FA RP in recent years hasn't usually worked very well.

That being said, I think Romo comes back on a 1yr $3M deal.

Pineda? Downside is the 60 game suspension but for the most part losing Pineda and gaining Wheeler would be a zero sum to me.

I am all about re-signing Pineda. When you look at stuff, age, what he did last year, where do you find a better value or fit?

His suspension only carries about 30 more days. As I understand it, he can fully participate in ST and gets a couple weeks to ramp up in the minors before he is activated. Not sure if he can remain at the Ft Myers complex during the suspension or is forced to work out on his own.

I don't like to have to cover that first 30+ days, but over the course of the entire season, again, he's a perfect fit.

Suggesting that Sano move across the diamond from third to first is not a criticism.  Many players outgrow the left side of the infield and go on to be very effective defensive players.  Albert Pujols moved from third early in his career and became a multi gold glove first baseman.  Miguel Cabrera made a similar move and had been an average to better than average defensive first baseman early in his career; although age has caught up to him some now. Although both are now DH’s late in their careers, that move was not made in their mid-twenties.
Sano was signed as a SS, but that was close to 100 lbs ago.  It does however indicate that there is a certain level of athleticism present.  The key is to make any change early enough in the offseason for him to be comfortable by opening day.  That was the real mistake in the attempted move to right field; a change initiated in spring training.  Although I am not suggesting a move to the outfield, I do believe that Sano has the skills that would allow him to be at least an average defensive right fielder; highlighted by an impressive arm.  Again, this would assume adequate time for training and adjustment.
First base should be a much smoother transition, especially if given the time to adequately learn and become comfortable. In the overall “defensive scheme”, Sano as an average first baseman is far more valuable than Sano as a below average third baseman.  That being said, I do believe that he has the potential to be above average defensively at first base.