What Might Buxton's Future Production Look Like?

I think you are underselling his HRs and average.  I'll bet he hits closer to .280 and averages 25-30 HRs.

Such is the life of us Twins fans being relegated to fantasy baseball.  Very entertaining article.

Buxton's future performance should be expected to be similar to his past performance, which has been highly affected by injuries. There's no reason to expect him to remain less injury-prone.

He's 27 now - pretty much in the peak performance period for most MLB hitters. Of course, there are exceptions - but as hitters near and age past 30, we typically see slight annual declines. Buxton's injury-tendancy might accelerate his decline.

IF he stays healthy and plays 80-90% of the time, he could be an significant impact player/All Star. And he will definitely make the Twins a better team if he plays that much.

Buxton is an exciting player and, if he's playing regularly, will be a draw for fans. Even if the Twins are mediocre, he will be fun to watch - if he's on the field and in the batter's box.

25 minutes ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

I mean, I'm not actually underselling anything. I simply wrote what the game did. I have always felt Buxton's offensive ability comes more from power production than it does average though. Think he's more a .260-.270 hitter with 25 homers.

He should be a .315 (or better?) hitter based on his speed alone.  If he would be willing to bunt once in a while instead of always going for the power numbers, he would be a force on both ends of the stats.  But he is not willing, so I guess you pegged his future production pretty well.  Or maybe I am blaming the wrong party; no one on this team will bunt, even to beat a shift, so maybe it is a directive and not a choice.  Either way, it is taking one of his best weapons away.  

28 minutes ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

I struggle with this being so widely accepted. I think his earlier injuries while running into walls was pretty fair to suggest as being self inflicted. Are we really suggesting that future injury is likely because he broke his hand on a HBP, or that he'll have hip issues because he returns too soon, or that concussions are likely because he hit his face on the ground?

None of those things have been great to see play out, but it's also a pretty big leap to suggest they're more indication of future struggles.

I am reading running into walls, diving for balls, injuries from running the bases (his hip injury), broken bones from hit by pitches, and on and on over 7 seasons.  That is a pattern that we are hoping (dare I say expecting?) to just end, and he will play 140 or so games a year from now on.  We all hope so, but is it realistic based on his history?  

All I am saying, as I have said before, is it would only be logical to worry about the pattern, both injury wise and production wise, which may very well be affected by his constant injuries.  Did the computer take all of this into account?  And, if so, what was the formula?  

45 minutes ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

I struggle with this being so widely accepted. I think his earlier injuries while running into walls was pretty fair to suggest as being self inflicted. Are we really suggesting that future injury is likely because he broke his hand on a HBP, or that he'll have hip issues because he returns too soon, or that concussions are likely because he hit his face on the ground?

I agree. Those injuries were likely not predictive. But I do have a strange superstitious side, and I would LOVE to see the Twins overhaul their logo and jersey this year. Give Buxton a fresh start. Immediately put away the old associations of his many injuries as a Twin. 

I know, it's dumb. And yet, the human mind is a goofy thing.

A fun exercise. I'm not sure how accurate it is and I struggle to believe a .779 OPS would get anybody an MVP award in reality.

Also, while you say $191.9MM is close to double Buxton's contract, that's not true. If Buxton wins an MVP with 574+ plate appearances, he'd have made $15 + $8 + $1.5 = $24.5MM. Since I'm not sure if he was garnering MVP votes in 2022-2024 or how many plate appearances he was having, it could make a big difference on his contract's value. Assuming the same number of plate appearances as 2025, and assuming his similar WAR resulted in say, #5 in MVP voting in those years, his contract would have been.

• 2022 - $15.5MM ($9 + $1 + $4 + $1.5)
• 2023 - $21.5MM ($15MM + 5MM + $1.5MM)
• 2024 - $21.5MM ($15MM + 5MM + $1.5MM)
• 2025 - $24.5MM ($15MM + 8MM + $1.5MM)
• 2026 - $15.0MM
• 2027 - $15.0MM
• 2028 - $15.0MM
• Total = $143MM vs. value = $191.9MM

I think most people, including myself, would be happy with Buxton performing at the level shown in the video game.

15 minutes ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Conversely, you're suggesting to take away his production potential by asking him to take one base at a time. Buxton turning singles into doubles and doubles into triples will be a thing forever.  He's equally able to beat out infield base hits without sacrificing the opportunity to hit the ball over the fence. There's a reason bunting isn't seen as a viable strategy for consistent run production anymore.

I am not following, I guess.  If he can beat out an infield hit while swinging away, he should always swing away?  On the chance he might get a power hit instead of getting on base more often by using all of his tools?  What is the thinking?  That a better average and on base percentage is not as good as slugging percentages?  

And the reverse is that shifts and pitch selections/locations are able to succeed the way they do due to the fact hitters go for power numbers above all else.  Using all the tools a guy like Buck has opens a lot more of the field and makes the pitcher and the defense work harder.  There is a lot more to hitting than power and launch angle.  Buck could do it all if someone would either allow him to, or light a fire under his rear, whichever the case may be.  How many Hall of Famers do we think would tell us what the bunt can do for a hitter?  

1 hour ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

I struggle with this being so widely accepted. I think his earlier injuries while running into walls was pretty fair to suggest as being self inflicted. Are we really suggesting that future injury is likely because he broke his hand on a HBP, or that he'll have hip issues because he returns too soon, or that concussions are likely because he hit his face on the ground?

None of those things have been great to see play out, but it's also a pretty big leap to suggest they're more indication of future struggles.

Unlucky or "brittle"?

I'd love to hear from one of our medical experts (Lucas? Heezy?) on the question of whether some people are actually more brittle or injury-prone than others. In my family, my wife has had many more broken bones and muscle strains than I have, and I doubt that she has had more falls and similar events. (Her favorite line is "Most people go to the gym to get strong; I go to the gym to get hurt!")

It certainly seems like every time Buxton has any kind of potential injury event he is out for months, whereas for some other players it is a minor knock and they can stay in the lineup or be "day to day."

Professional advice would be appreciated!

5 hours ago, Karbo said:

There have been a few other great players that were injury "prone" early in their careers that at some point it changed around for them. Moliter comes to mind right off.

The other side of that coin would be Eric Davis. Healthy and productive earlier in his career, and then somewhat derailed in the second half, a la Buxton

I think it is , to some extent, random.

There's really only one way to go on the injury front with Buxton, and that's up.

His migraines are one thing I'd be concerned about.

That said, I'm betting on his cashing in on some of those incentives.

Only time will tell.

A .779 OPS wins AL MVP.....   Return of the deadball era?

on paper nice exercise, but in real time action Buxton has to appear in 100 games a year at a minimum during his contract. To be the guy, day in day out, number should really be 130 games a yea.  Biggest problem I see for him to be elite and a true difference maker can't be 1/2 the season year over year.  Let's hope the injury bug goes on hiatus for him