What If Miguel Is Really Kyle?

I think there's a relative danger to assuming Sano can handle first base as well. As much as he may not be able to handle third, I'm not sure he's better suited than say Vargas at first (which is not good). Errors aren't much of an indicator as to how someone plays the field. Right now, Mauer is a Gold Glove caliber 1B and among the best defensively in baseball. Asking Sano to step into that role would be quite a slide back.

 

Without being too much of a detriment, Sano's best position is probably DH. That really hamstrings you though with how to rotate other guys through. He's also just in his mid-20's and relating him to that role so early is rather unfortunate.

 

Somewhat unrelated, but a part of me hopes that Brent Rooker continues on a tear in 2018 and helps to solve the first base issues going forward.

I would have to be blown away to trade Sano. I have concerns about his health (coming off of surgery) but that also reduces his blow me away trade value (not to mention the new PR mess).

I don't think it is unfortunate to relegate him to DH at such a young age. Nor does it really hamstring you (vs trading him away) since he is the best hitter on the team by a decent margin and he can still play 1B occasionally. If someone else is dinged up and needs a day off then they can sit if they can't outhit Sano. If he is hitting 30-40 HR with a .850+ OPS then everything works out. 

I would have to be blown away to trade Sano. I have concerns about his health (coming off of surgery) but that also reduces his blow me away trade value (not to mention the new PR mess).

I don't think it is unfortunate to relegate him to DH at such a young age. Nor does it really hamstring you (vs trading him away) since he is the best hitter on the team by a decent margin and he can still play 1B occasionally. If someone else is dinged up and needs a day off then they can sit if they can't outhit Sano. If he is hitting 30-40 HR with a .850+ OPS then everything works out. 

I agree that age has nothing to do with playing DH. There are only nine hitters in a lineup, and if you've got a guy that is one of the top two or three hitters on your roster, he MUST be in the batting lineup every day. If that same guy is a negative in the field, AND you have another guy who is better in the field and at least replacement level as a hitter, that guy should be the one with a glove.

I don't see any problem with running Escobar out there every day at third base while Sano DH's.

People who suggest that nearly anyone can just move over and play 1B need to wake up. 1B touch the ball more often than any other fielder other than the P and C. You need to have a GOOD 1B if you want to make the playoffs. 

 

That's why i would advocate for keeping Mauer at 1B beyond 2018, if healthy. It has taken years, but he has turned into a really good 1B, who can scoop thrown balls in the dirt and elsewhere, making Dozier, Polanco and Sano look much better – fewer errors, more outs. Mauer also gets to the batted ball better than any other 1B defender on the Twins team. 

 

I'm not suggesting we pay Mauer $23 million a year starting in 2019 – more like $10 million. He does have value as a 1B, as a hitter, and as a quiet clubhouse leader. 

 

Moving Sano to 1B would be a disaster. Keep him at 3B, or let him DH a lot. Do not move him to 1B. 

 

As for the assault allegations, I suspect he will get a 30-day suspension. The Twins and MLB cannot take this lightly, but there was no sexual assault (there may have been that intent, if you believe the allegations). But it's also hard to prove with no other witnesses.

At the risk of hijacking this very interesting thread...

I think it will be very informative to see how MLB handles the misconduct allegations against Miguel Sano.

Aroldis Chapman got a 30 game suspension for an incident where he allegedly choked his girlfriend and then fired off 8 rounds in his garage. Police were called to the scene and a police report was filed. Chapman admitted that there was an altercation in his interview with MLB investigators; he disputed the choking, saying that there was an altercation and he was pushed down by his girlfriend's brother, but admitted to firing off the gun.

Miguel Sano is accused of assault during an incident that was not reported for two years. I'm not aware if a police investigation has been opened. Will MLB really give him the same punishment as Chapman? My opinion is that MLB WILL come down hard on Sano in attempt to have a chilling effect on this type of behavior in the future. But...it seems like MLB set its standards awfully low with Chapman's punishment.

If I could find a trade partner whose team is in a market that could overlook recent issues that have surfaced, and those teams do exist, then I would trade Sano if I could get some reasonable return in the starting pitching department. There are so many flags here, both on and off the field. And that's a shame, I was very much looking forward to his career with the Twins. I thought he would end up something special. I am not sure that will ever happen.

At the risk of hijacking this very interesting thread...

 

I think it will be very informative to see how MLB handles the misconduct allegations against Miguel Sano.

 

Aroldis Chapman got a 30 game suspension for an incident where he allegedly choked his girlfriend and then fired off 8 rounds in his garage. Police were called to the scene and a police report was filed. Chapman admitted that there was an altercation in his interview with MLB investigators; he disputed the choking, saying that there was an altercation and he was pushed down by his girlfriend's brother, but admitted to firing off the gun.

 

Miguel Sano is accused of assault during an incident that was not reported for two years. I'm not aware if a police investigation has been opened. Will MLB really give him the same punishment as Chapman? My opinion is that MLB WILL come down hard on Sano in attempt to have a chilling effect on this type of behavior in the future. But...it seems like MLB set its standards awfully low with Chapman's punishment.

Among players with more than 450 PAs last year, Sano was second in K rate and 47th in BB rate. He was second in BABIP (unsustainable, especially with a leg injury), but 31st in ISO. His overall offensive production was roughly equivalent to Eric Thames, Scooter Gennett and Travis Shaw, which is . . . decent, but nothing special. He adds little defensive value. Aside from pedigree, can someone explain why he’s considered to be so great?

This. Like most people I am enamored with his power. But, he strikes out a ridiculous amount, is walking less and doesn't have a position. Sounds like Chris Carter who got a nothing contract. Now you throw in makeup issues and that he can't stay healthy. The bust potential has grown substantially in my book.

Among players with more than 450 PAs last year, Sano was second in K rate and 47th in BB rate. He was second in BABIP (unsustainable, especially with a leg injury), but 31st in ISO. His overall offensive production was roughly equivalent to Eric Thames, Scooter Gennett and Travis Shaw, which is . . . decent, but nothing special. He adds little defensive value. Aside from pedigree, can someone explain why he’s considered to be so great?

He has done this at age 24 while battling a few injuries. The injuries are the concern. 

Yeah, I'm not sure one can really expect a player to improve on and maintain a BABIP over .362.  That's extremely high already.  It's amazing he's busted that number twice already.

But he does pound that ball and since he's done it twice, I suppose he could do it on a regular basis.

 

 

Wonder if there will be any discussion on whether Joe Mauer can sustain his career .341 BABIP too

Besides the fact that there's a 24 point difference... :-)

Anyway, is there a hitter who has a career BABIP over .365?

For one thing, citing his historical BABIP as an argument that he can continue his historical BABIP is circular. Expecting him to continue to have a league leading BABIP with a leg injury and increased size is not a good bet.

Also, you are taking my BABIP comment out of context, because, while he had a leading BABIP, he had only a middling ISO. BABIP is more of a luck stat, while ISO is more of a skill stat. If his BABIP regresses toward the mean, his ISO could fall from middling to mediocre. That’s because of his awful K rate. With such a high K rate, he needs to make amazing contact more often when he does hit the ball.

Actually with enough sample size BAPIP (Sano is getting close to enough) doesn't regress to a mean (average of all players) but instead establishes a player's expected BAPIP. Joe Mauer has always had a well above average BAPIP and Brian Dozier well below average. 

There are also many factors that determine a player's BAPIP. Speed is only one factor and not even the most important factor IIRC. How hard you hit the ball (or LD rate) was the biggest factor. Sano is above average (near the top in exit velocity I think) in both of those factors.

BAPIP and ISO are completely separate from each other. ISO is heavily dependent on HR while BAPIP completely omits HR's. But again both of these benefit from hitting the ball very hard and Sano does that very well.

His ISO is also really good rather than middling. He ranked 26th (if he qualified) out of 144 qualified hitters. But of course, expectations are that it will go higher as he improves as a hitter and enters his prime years.

For the sake of full disclosure, I had this written last week prior to Sano's news. That being said, this should be viewed through a lens completely aside from that scenario.

 

Essentially the crux is this: I'd argue the Cubs should've dealt Schwarber for the best pitcher they could immediately after the WS and believe they would've gotten a decent haul. Sano is more proven than Schwarber was, and think his value is at a similar peak position. If you can get an top tier starter for him (and replace your potential DH), do you do it?

Given the Twins success at putting Dozier on the market last off season, your Schwarber argument appears to be in the "highly debatable" category making the answer your question an obvious yes. Given the current climate baseball thinking on pitching I find it doubtful that we would get more than a prospect for Sano.  

Given the Twins success at putting Dozier on the market last off season, your Schwarber argument appears to be in the "highly debatable" category making the answer your question an obvious yes. Given the current climate baseball thinking on pitching I find it doubtful that we would get more than a prospect for Sano.  

I think Sano could be looked at as a prospect (4 years of control) and net a pretty good pitcher on a weak hitting team. For example, Archer. I don't know how I feel about that trade but for the most part I don't think trading Sano is a practical plan this offseason. There will still be interest but this is a sell low point imo.

I think Sano could be looked at as a prospect (4 years of control) and net a pretty good pitcher on a weak hitting team. For example, Archer. I don't know how I feel about that trade but for the most part I don't think trading Sano is a practical plan this offseason. There will still be interest but this is a sell low point imo.

Sure, I can agree that anything can happen.  I just can't get it out of my mind how poor the Dodgers offer was for Dozier.  42 HR, from your second baseman while everyone could agree he was likely to hit 30-35 in the next season.  Sure Sano can hit 30-35 too, if he stays on the field.  Dozier is more of an outlier and he works harder.  I just think it falls into a low probability.  

Sano's career BABIP numbers:

 

.422, .382, .339, .307, .397, .265 (surgery), .315, .396 (MLB), .329 (MLB), .375 (MLB)

 

MLB average BABIP is .362.   So it is pretty darn sustainable (and likely will improve for someone who is 3-4 years away from his prime.)

 

And more important 17.25 PA/HR last season (and has been improving) which means that if he had Dozier's PAs last season, he would have hit 41 HR. 

When Dozier was his age he had 9 HRs between Fort Myers and New Britain.

 

And that is not measured by BABIP.

 

And he is 3-4 year away from his prime.  We are talking about a perennial 50-60 HR a season hitter here...

I have a question. Since you are trying to measure a players effectiveness when he hits balls into the field shouldn't you count double plays against the hitter and for the pitcher?  Certainly would help explain Kintzler's success with his allegedly mediocre stuff.