What Are Realistic Expectations for Randy Dobnak?

Will he start the season at AAA? There isn't any room for him in the rotation if they keep Winder and Sands as starters.

There are no expectations for Randy Dobnak this season. He's an afterthought.

Imo...anything we can get from him would be a plus. I don't think he figures into any plans for this season. He's WAY down the list right now. I hope he can make it back from the finger injury, but I doubt he jumps any of the pitchers we already have.

He's a AAA level relief pitcher.

He's under team control  and most likely won't walk away from it  , twins can place him anywhere they like ...

If he is pitching well he deserves another shot but it might not be this year as a starting pitcher unless there is an abundance of injuries , could possibly see some relief in 2023 in the MLB ...

Feels similar to the spot Smeltzer was in last year — a long way from the bigs. Smeltzer got a shot (and performed pretty admirably), but it took a glut of injuries for him to get a chance. 
 

With the added rotation depth this year, it would probably take 6 or more SP injuries for Dobnak to get a spot start this year. 

The team has gone through about 35 pitchers every year. Players will get their shot at a cup of coffee. For Dobnak the chance will come if the pitches come back. If the hand remains too stiff he is on to his next career. 

A trip down the same path of Tyler Duffey would be fine with me. Over-rated, and yes, over-paid cup of coffee who's ship has sailed. Move on please. 5 years at $9.25M isn't much in todays world of over-paid atheletes but in this case it's still like pouring money down a rat hole. 

His career has hit rock bottom. There might still be some potential for Dobnak to contribute at the big league level. Anything he adds as a positive going forward is an unexpected bonus for the Twins.

Such an interesting story.  How can you not cheer for this young man?  Does he find a way back?  Count me among those who are cheering for him.

From the article: "Dobnak's finger injury is complex, especially for a pitcher that relies heavily on a sinker. He has ruptured two of the pulleys in his finger, which means he relies on three instead of five"

Then, he is not healthy. He is trying to pitch nursing his injury the best he can. So, unfortunately, the chances that he will be back are really low.

He got a nice contract - more than independent ball players can dream of.  He seems like a great guy.  So my prediction is that he pitches out his contract in the minor leagues, saves money and enjoys a great life with lots of stories to share.

I think he might be a Carl Willis style middle reliever.  He doesn’t have the lights out velocity to his pitches, but a lot of movement and deception. I would be all for us converting him to a relief role. If he starts the season in AAA and gets a track record going I see a chance.  
 

I think Bailey Ober, Josh Winder, Simeon Woods-Richardson, Jordan Balazovic, Connor Prielipp, Louis Varland, even Marco Raya have so much more upside as a starter than him.  
 

Within that list above I see ace potential. It’s a very deep list of starters with upside and I expect a few of them to be dominant relievers if they don’t make it as a starter. 
 

I am all for Dobnak to be Carl Willis 2.0. For those of you that don’t remember Willis was our second most dominant relief option to Rick Aguilera in our last title team in 1991. There is a place for that in a bullpen today as a change of pace to our 95mph + relievers. 

A spot start once in a while(because we all know it will be needed at some point.)  I am still hopeful he can at least be "that guy."

I would love to see him comeback as long relief.

That said, I hope he is not Joe Mays or Nick Blackburn 2.0.

3 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

I would love to see him comeback as long relief.

This is what I think to be his most realistic path back to the majors.  If he can't get all his pitches back, then maybe he's just going to be a minor league guy. I'm hoping he reclaims some of that mojo and ends up a decent bullpen piece.

Randy seems to be too nice of a guy to make jokes. But if he ever misbehaves, I've got some teed up.

Mauer is going into the Twins' HOF this year. Rumor has it that Dobnak's agent is going in in 2024. 

1 hour ago, GKuehl said:

Feels similar to the spot Smeltzer was in last year — a long way from the bigs. Smeltzer got a shot (and performed pretty admirably), but it took a glut of injuries for him to get a chance. 
 

With the added rotation depth this year, it would probably take 6 or more SP injuries for Dobnak to get a spot start this year. 

Luckily, something like THAT will NEVER happen..

I just want to know, has there ever been a player who went undrafted after his senior season in college that got to the big leagues quicker than Dobnak?

I have no expectations for Dobnak. That said, he's a great kid and a great story. I kind of like that he parlayed part of one good season into lifechanging money .. LOL

Looking back at his stats he never was a strike out pitcher he was more of a pitch to contact pitcher with batters driving it into the ground.  The only problem he had IMO was he had no put away pitch.  Guys would foul lots of stuff off and he could end up with high pitch counts and long innings.  

If he can't use the sinker anymore I have no idea who he is as a pitcher.  Many players have reinvented themselves to great success in this game and Randy is a worker so I wouldn't count him out.  If the finger holds up I like his chances in the pen.  With his finger issue can't see him putting extra strain on it starting.

As far as the money goes when he came in that spring he looked like he had found his K pitch and might be a dominant pitcher.  The contract was a small risk for potential great gain for the Twins.  Randy had beaten the odds all the way to MLB it didn't seem prudent to bet against him.  Injuries happen to lots of players and this contract risked peanuts compared to most.  I didn't think it was terrible at the time in fact I thought Dobnak might be selling himself short. So far it has worked out better for Randy than the Twins but that happens all the time in baseball especially with pitchers (just ask the Dodgers).

I bet against Randy pretty much all the way up the ladder and ridiculed the Twins for using him so much in A ball and then he took off.  One thing I learned was never bet against Randy Dobnak.  This time I am betting on the comeback.

Knuckleball

At this point, find out if there’s anything there. Try him out as a starter in Saint Paul and see if he succeeds. If not, push him to a reliever role and try him there. Unless the twins somehow get more injured than last year he’s likely out of the picture in 2023. If he can prove to be a strong starter or elite reliever in AAA, he could factor in as a part of the depth chart in 2024, but he has to show he can handle a full year. I would say if he has an ERA over 3.50 as a starter or an ERA over 2.50 as a reliever than he doesn’t deserve a call up.

47 minutes ago, Dman said:

If he can't use the sinker anymore I have no idea who he is as a pitcher.  Many players have reinvented themselves to great success in this game and Randy is a worker so I wouldn't count him out.

It's hard to throw any movement pitch if you can't use your fingers effectively. It's impossible to be an effective major league pitcher without a movement pitch.

I will be surprised if we see him pitch again. I have doubted him all the way. 

He's not on the 40 man. That's a big hurdle, but if he's effective and looks like he can help, the FO will find him a spot. If they have to pay him he'll get a shot if he looks good.

Give him a chance to start in AAA. If there's no room in the St. Paul rotation start him in AA. He needs some time to see what's there. Then depending on how things go make any appropriate moves.

Could he ever regain these 2 ruptured pulleys in his finger? If not I doubt it but hope he can regain his old form of high GB rate. Rockies could use his caliber of pitching, I no longer think the Twins will.

Maybe they try converting him into a relief pitcher this year. He is owed $7,750,000 through 2026 so there is no reason to just cut him and move on. It's not big money but if he can come back it's worth hanging onto him especially since he's not taking a spot on the 40 man roster.

4 hours ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

His career has hit rock bottom. There might still be some potential for Dobnak to contribute at the big league level. Anything he adds as a positive going forward is an unexpected bonus for the Twins.

His only comeback route to MLB is as a relief pitcher.

Dobnack shows some promise. But he might split time between AA/AAA  this year. I count 12 starters between  AAA and the majors. I think he needs to restart his trip up the ladder. It's most important to get his health in check. Then the rest could fall into place.