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During the 2013 season, the Twins finished the second half with a .386 winning percentage as the club was 16 games under .500 for that stretch. This included posting an 8-20 record for the final month of the year. 2012 and 2011 were also rough second halves with .390 and .301 winning percentages. That's a lot of second half losses but bad rosters, injuries, and a rough group in the rotation will do that to a team.
If a person wants to look on the bright side of things, the mounting Minnesota losses do lead to some positives. The 90-loss seasons of the last three years have resulted in the Twins earning three straight top five draft picks. This has brought a trio of top-notch prospects into the organization. Byron Buxton, Kohl Stewart, and Nick Gordon might be among the keys to getting the organization back on track and those picks wouldn't have happened without some terrible Septembers.
This year, the Twins losing ways at the start of September have the club positioned to slide into a top five pick for the fourth year in a row.
This is the third post in a series looking at different story lines in relation to the Twins as the season comes to a close (Part 1: Starting Rotation, Part 2: Prospect Promotions). September has been a rough month over the last three seasons and this year is following that trend. The motto of the month might be "Wake Me Up When September Ends" but there seems to be a small glimmer of hope on the horizon. This could give you a reason to still pay attention over the final weeks.
Projected 2015 MLB Draft Order
1. Texas Rangers 54-89
2. Houston Astros
3. Colorado Rockies 59-85 4.5 GB
4. Arizona D-Backs 59-84 5.0 GB
5. Minnesota Twins 61-82 7.0 GB
6. Houston Astros 63-81 8.5 GB
7. Boston Red Sox 63-81 8.5 GB
The Texas Rangers seem to have a stronghold on the top pick in the draft and Houston is guaranteed to pick second after failing to sign this year's top pick, Brady Aiken, This leaves the Twins stalking the Diamondbacks and the Rockies for the third worst record in baseball.
When looking at the strength of schedule for these teams, this is shaping up to be a tight race to the end. The Twins opponents the rest of the way have roughly a .500 winning percentage which is tied with the Rockies. The Diamondbacks have a little bit easier road, with opponents' winning percentage around .480. The Red Sox and the Astros are behind Minnesota and they have tougher opponents the rest of the way.
How well a team is playing can also impact its draft position. Some teams play a lot better down the stretch than their overall records would indicate. Over the last 20 games, the Twins have the 26th worst record in baseball. The only team on the above list with a record as bad as Minnesota is Arizona and they have the same record. Texas and Boston are one game better. While some teams have been struggling, the Rockies have been two games over .500 in the last 20.
So what's the prize at the end of the road? It's tough to know how the draft will shape up over the next few months. When dealing with a combination of high school and college players, a lot can impact their draft stock. Last week, Baseball America said "one of the strengths of this draft class is high school bats and prep power." That being said, it sounds like the top of the draft will be pitcher-heavy.
Does losing stink at the end of the year? Well, yes, but another top notch prospect could only add to the organization's depth.
If you are going to be bad, it pays to be really bad...
especially in September.
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