Using PECOTA to Identify 4 Rotation Trade Targets

One of the traps I typically fall into when analyzing the Twins roster is seeing the offseason as a fixed and finite unit, as opposed to a continuum on which the trade deadline also sits.

The Twins now sit at 42.0 projected fWAR after the Nelson Cruz and Alex Colome deals, good for fourth in baseball behind the Dodgers, Yankees, and Padres. This confirms what we all know, the Twins are a playoff team and should be in the mix in the postseason. The front office has messaged building a sustainable winner, and with payroll running low, it seems likely that high impact additions are done for the offseason.

One avenue for improvement the Twins haven’t significantly tapped in Derrick Falvey’s tenure is making a big move at the trade deadline. Looking at the current roster, the avenue that seems most likely for them to pursue is a trade for a front end starting pitcher, to raise their pitching ceiling in the playoffs.

Parameters for Trades

I used PECOTA (Baseball Reference’s projection system) to examine four starters the Twins could target projecting forwards to the deadline. In order to do this, I stuck to a few key parameters:

• The pitcher needs to be from a relatively poor team, unlikely to be in playoff contention.
  
• I didn’t include anyone with an astronomical salary, as we know the Twins like to maintain financial flexibility.
  
• I typically targeted younger starters with multiple years of control, a scenario which would render the Twins more likely to part with a significant prospect haul.
  
• High ceiling -- I targeted starters projected to be as good or better than Jose Berrios in 2021 -- meaning they could potentially start game two of a playoff series.
  

Notes: I left out two popular, high quality names -- Luis Castillo, and Brandon Woodruff. Castillo would be an incredibly expensive pickup for the Twins based on reports this winter, and the Brewers should still be in the hunt in the NL Central, making it unlikely they trade their best starter in Woodruff. We’ll move from worst to best options, according to PECOTA.

DRA- is BP’s encompassing pitching rate stat. Average is 100, lower is better.

WARP is Wins above replacement player (BP version of WAR)

German Marquez

Key projected stats: 4.01 ERA, 8.84 SO/9, DRA - 90, WARP 2.21.

Contract average: $8.6 million over four years, UFA in 2025.

Marquez has long been a popular source of Twins fans trade speculation. The now 25 year old originally came to the Rockies in the Corey Dickerson trade with the Rays. In four full seasons with the Rockies, he’s put up an impressive 12.2 fWAR. Marquez features a four-pitch mix including a fastball which gets up to 95 mph, a strong curveball and slider, and a changeup he doesn't use a whole lot. Marquez will be one of the few exciting players in a Rockies team ‘not in a rebuild’ according to GM Jeff Bridich. Marquez is under team control for a very reasonable price through the end of the 2024 season, so would likely cost significant prospect capital. Per PECOTA, his best comparables are Luis Severino, Lucas Giolito, and Jose Berrios.

Sonny Gray

Key projected stats: 4.03 ERA, 10.5 SO/9, DRA - 89, WARP 2.24.

Contract average: $10.1 million average over three years, UFA in 2024.

Gray is another popular trade candidate on Twins twitter after an excellent 2020 with the Reds. In his last two seasons with Cincinnatti, he’s been dominant, accruing 5.9 fWAR. Gray has a similar pitch-mix to Marquez, featuring a four-seam fastball, exceptional curveball, slider, and a rarely used changeup. Gray has done an exceptional job limiting hard contact in his last two seasons, and his excellent fastball and curveball spin rates should appeal to the Twins. Gray seems expensive currently, and is another starter with an affordable deal, but his price may drop if the Reds are out of contention at the deadline. Gray’s best comparables are Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, and Zack Wheeler

Kyle Hendricks

Key projected stats: 3.68 ERA, 7.68 SO/9, DRA- 87, WARP 2.55.

Contract average: $13.8 average over three years, UFA in 2024.

Perennially underrated by projection systems, Hendricks is my favorite under the radar Twins trade target for 2021. In the last six seasons with the Cubs, Hendricks has put up 20.8 fWAR with a fastball that is in the third percentile in the league for velocity and first for spin rate. Hendricks control and command are incredible, he managed a 2.5% BB% in 2020 and his curve is exceptional. Hendriks makes good not great SP money over the next few years. His consistent excellence, the amount he is typically underrated, the general lack of effort by the Cubs organization make him an excellent midseason target for the Twins. Hendricks best comparables are David Price, Tom Seaver, and James Shields.

Zac Gallen

Key projected stats: 3.32 ERA, 10.25 SO/9, DRA- 81, WARP 2.79.

Contract: $575,000 base salary (pre-arbitration), UFA in 2026.

Gallen is different from the rest of the trade targets as he only has 150ish MLB innings under his belt. Gallen was drafted by the Cardinals before being traded to Miami (along with Sandy Alcantara) for Marcel Ozuna. He was then traded to the Diamondback for Jazz Chishom in 2019. Since debuting in the majors with Arizona, he’s been excellent, with his fastball, cutter, changeup, curve mix limiting hard contact and leading to a good strikeout rate, with good command and control to boot. Gallen would likely be an expensive acquisition as he is pre-arbitration and under team control through 2025. Gallen’s best comparables are Jose Berrios, Jack Flaherty, and Jake Odorizzi.

One untapped resource for the Twins remains adding significantly at the deadline. Perhaps 2021 will be the year they push more chips to the middle of the table in July. Which of these four options are most appealing to you as a higher end pitching addition? Which other candidates are you interested in? Leave your thoughts in the comments below.

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