Tyler Duffey's Dreadful Start Is Déjà Vu All Over Again

"To suggest that Duffey is solely responsible for the two losses he's been tagged with is not quite fair."

I think in disagreeing with this line, I am agreeing with the overall thesis of the article. Something Bill Buckner-esque aside, I don't see how a single player can be more solely responsible for a loss than this. It is truly as bad as it gets. The losses themselves are very significant, but it has the potential to be so demoralizing. I think it might also have the potential to be galvanizing or some other antonym of demoralizing, depending on how the manager responds. We all saw how pumped Buck was after he hit that go-ahead homer in the eighth inning. He wants to lead this team with his performance and with his energy. My guess is that after Duffey blew the game, Buxton was more pissed than deflated. I think if Duffey sticks around and keeps getting meaningful opportunities, then the situation is confirmed demoralizing. I think if Duffey is benched, relegated to garbage time, or best of all, outright cut, then the anger is validated.

I can't see any risk in cutting him. Bullpen: next man up.

54 minutes ago, RJA said:

This is a great question, and really the heart of the matter.  Given where the game was at, I would probably have used Winder for multiple innings and then looked to Pagan to close if Winder faded.  If we needed somebody behind Winder, I would have then considered Coulombe or, yes, Duffy.  I am not saying that is better, just an option.  WInder is a rookie, so the wheels might have fallen off his wagon as well.  If Duffey had been lights out, we wouldn't be discussing the topic at TD.  Overall, I don't think Rocco does a great job of managing the bullpen, or the game.  I would put him in the middle of the pack of all managers.  I think his strength is in his relationships with players, motivating players, and handling the media.  These days, those tasks are crucial IMHO.  And, I think he does that beautifully.  The real problem is what Rocco currently has to work with.  You can't play aces when your highest card is a 9.  He can only play the hand he is dealt.

Yeah I would give you ten likes for this if I could.  I think you hit the nail on the head.  He is not the strongest in game manager IMO.  He does excel on the relationship end though.  Also he can only play the hand he is dealt.  The FO did him no favors when it came to the pen.

Bullpens need good pitchers. The variance due to small sample in their numbers is not a variance in talent level.

As of now I believe Duffey is one of the best 8 talents they have for the bullpen that is sadly lacking in talent.  They really needed to add rather than subtract from the pen this off season.

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

What would you have done differently last night?

How about leave Smith in for the next inning? Was 2 pitches yesterday (and 6 on Monday and all of 3 last Thursday) just too much? I don't think so. We didn't need Duffey in the one run game at all!

Love the work, Nick. Always. You missed another deja vu, however.  The offense....stinks.  There's just no other way to put it.

8 hours ago, PDX Twin said:

Yup. On current evidence, we traded one year of excellent relief for 3 years of lousy starts.

Would you care to refresh that overreaction with the addition of a second start? Because Paddack was quite good (if unlucky) tonight. Or is this going to be a case of not caring what Paddack does in any of his other starts, the mind she is made up?

It's almost tragically funny/ironic that the two guys the team, and us, felt best about to begin the season, Duffey and Thielbar, are off to the worst starts of anyone. Duffey showed poorly last year before actually throwing pretty well from about June on, though he wasn't quite as dominate. Ditto for Thielbar. But experience and history, you probably still felt pretty good about those two as PART of a 5 man late inning pen with Rogers and Alcala and pitcher X. 

And there were so many options for middle relief, you felt pretty good there. The Smith signing only added to optimism for middle relief with what what was on hand.

And I despise repeating myself again, but if we're going to address the situation yet again, I'm forced to also repeat myself again. I am 100% on board with the Twins not spending $10+M on a single RP. But there were so many quality, proven RP options just sitting out there to add to Rogers and the rest of the potential pen to make a difference on a 1 or 2yr contract. Instead, we sign Smith, nobody else, and then trade Rogers for Paddack, Pagan, and a flier. 

And maybe that trade will turn out great! There is potential for it to be true. But when do we stop looking at "value" vs NOW? 

Alcala was supposed to be part of the pen, Duran an amazing possibility, Duffey and Thielbar part of the equation. But now, instead of taking a small risk on a proven arm for $5-7M to join Rogers, we are down 3 arms with the Alcala injury. Who could have seen this? Virtually ALL of us just looking at need, opportunity, and projected payroll. 

Duffey and Thielbar might right themselves. Hope they do, and soon. I was surprised and happy when Colombe and Minaya signed on milb deals. I don't hate the arms on hand. There is some real potential there. And part of me "gets" building a pen. But at some point, you need a couple arms you can really count on. 

We didn't sign a late RH arm...is the FO still scared about the Reed signing?...and we traded Rogers because they wanted "value" vs a proven commodity for 1yr?

At some point, you just can't build a pen on projection alone. A few $M needs to be spent to make sure the BP is quality to "compete". Duffey, by himself, or Thielbar,  doesn't make or break the pen, or the season. But you can't win a season by losing too much in the first 2 months while trying to piece things together yet again.

Yes, the early offense is probably as much to blame as anything for a sub .500 record. We have missed countless opportunities so far. And that is part of the equation to be sure. But I can't help but believe Duffey's and Thielbar's early struggles are a short sighted mistake vs having additional strength by just addressing the pen.

13 hours ago, RJA said:

This is a great question, and really the heart of the matter.  Given where the game was at, I would probably have used Winder for multiple innings and then looked to Pagan to close if Winder faded.  If we needed somebody behind Winder, I would have then considered Coulombe or, yes, Duffy.  I am not saying that is better, just an option.  WInder is a rookie, so the wheels might have fallen off his wagon as well.  If Duffey had been lights out, we wouldn't be discussing the topic at TD.  Overall, I don't think Rocco does a great job of managing the bullpen, or the game.  I would put him in the middle of the pack of all managers.  I think his strength is in his relationships with players, motivating players, and handling the media.  These days, those tasks are crucial IMHO.  And, I think he does that beautifully.  The real problem is what Rocco currently has to work with.  You can't play aces when your highest card is a 9.  He can only play the hand he is dealt.

I’m wondering which/any Twins position player has developed under Rocco?  Sano, Kepler, Kiriloff, Larnach, Jeffers have regressed. Very shortly, this team is going to need a manager who can turn our young talent into solid major leaguers. Sorry, nothing against him, but Rocco has not demonstrated that he is that guy.  TK and Gardy were able to do that.

Twins will likely need to make a change in HC sooner rather than latter as the next three star prospects make their way up to the big club. Too much talent to squander. 

Trading Rogers for Paddack and Pagan isn't the problem. The rotation isn't the problem. Pagan has been fine. We have two problems. The bullpen is 1-2 arms short. The FO should have been more proactive and gotten us at least 1 more bullpen arm. It wasn't the most unreasonable strategy not getting a free agent arm for the bullpen but it hasn't worked and really failed when Alcala went down, and then Duffy and Theilbar became ineffective. 

The real problem is the offense. We have 4, maybe 5 MLB starting caliber hitters in Arraez, Buxton, Correa, Polanco and I'm counting Urshela.  When 1 or 2 of them aren't hitting - Correa and Polanco - we really have less than half of a starting caliber MLB lineup. I'd frankly be in favor of trading from our supposed surplus - young pitching - to get a young outfielder. I don't have a lot of confidence that Larnach or Kirilloff will be that guy this year or even next. We have nothing on the farm unless Contreras or Miranda is ready and it doesn't look like it so far.  IF we get lucky and one or more of those 4 are ready now, we have plenty of spots to fit them in the lineup between RF (Kepler is a 4th OF on a good team), 1B (Sano isn't worth his contract and may be gone next year), and DH (we got nobody).  We probably can't do anything trade wise until closer to the deadline although there may be opportunities when everyone has to re-set their rosters on May 1. Bottom line is that the season is getting away from us because we can't hit or score runs, not because of the bullpen. I think the big issue here in July will be how good a return we can get when we trade Correa not who can we get for a stretch run. Depressing.