Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account
  • Two Lefty Starters the Twins Could Trade For Right Now


    Nick Nelson

    With most top free agents off the board, and Minnesota's pursuit of Hyun-Jin Ryu feeling somewhat hopeless, the front office will likely need to make a trade to add the requisite impact starter this offseason.

    Provided they are ready to pony up, the Twins could almost certainly acquire one of these two crowded-out left-handers.

    Image courtesy of Matt Kartozian and Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

    Robbie Ray of the Diamondbacks was already being speculated upon as a trade candidate, even prior to the team's signing of Madison Bumgarner. Now, the rumors are ramping up, and with good reason: Ray has one remaining season under contract, and figures to make more than $10 million in his last turn at arbitration.

    This past season, Ray was above-average but not great, posting a 4.34 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 174 innings. In the two years prior, his ERA+ was 134. He is an absolute strikeout machine, with the third-highest K/9 rate among MLB starters since 2017 (trailing only Chris Sale and Max Scherzer), and even during a relative down year in 2019 he still held opponents to a .234 average. He also, incidentally, has plenty of familiarity with Minnesota's new part-time catcher – Alex Avila spent the last two years in Arizona.

    To some, Ray wouldn't satisfy the threshold for rotation impact, given that he's been unable to pull everything together and pitch like an ace outside of 2017. But for me, he brings the upside and proven performance to be a transformative addition. There's no doubting his frontline capability.

    That argument might be a tougher sell with the other guy I'll mention here. Steven Matz doesn't offer the same clearly visible promise as Ray. In fact, he hasn't been very good since breaking onto the scene with a 3.16 ERA over his first 28 starts for the Mets in 2015 and 2016. But that ability is still in there, and he's only 28, with a fastball from the left side that sits in the mid-90s.

    Even with Zack Wheeler gone, the Mets have a more obvious rotation crunch than Arizona. New York has signed two free agent starters, Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello, to join a unit that already features Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergard, and Marcus Stroman. That leaves Matz – set to earn more than $5 million in arbitration coming off an underwhelming season, and two years away from free agency – as the evident odd man out.

    It'd be nice if the Twins could pry loose Syndergaard or even deGrom, but the Mets are unlikely to move one of their top dogs as they seem intent on making a push this year. Trading Matz, who currently appears to be their sixth starter, wouldn't inhibit that goal. It would also probably cost Minnesota significantly less in prospect capital than Ray.

    On that front, the good news is that New York's front office has plenty of familiarity with Minnesota's system, having scouted it thoroughly during Syndergaard trade talks last July. This could help facilitate a deal.

    Ray would be preferable to Matz, but either starter would add a left-hander with legit stuff to a rotation mix that is currently all right-handed with Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, and Randy Dobnak. And in either case, it's pretty clear the Twins could make a trade happen tomorrow if they're motivated.

    And at this point... they should be motivated.

    MORE FROM TWINS DAILY

    — Latest Twins coverage from our writers

    — Recent Twins discussion in our forums

    — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

    MORE FROM TWINS DAILY
    — Latest Twins coverage from our writers
    — Recent Twins discussion in our forums
    — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
    — Become a Twins Daily Caretaker

     Share

     Share


    User Feedback

    Recommended Comments



    Featured Comments

     

    I would be good with either.... Would fit nicely into the rotation. Would clearly depend on what kind of return they would need. Although there is not likely an "ace" to be had there is still some pitchers that could help us out there on the trade market as well as FA market... The front office is likely working on Ryu and Donaldson right now which would determine what still needs to be done. We are fine... the sky is not falling....

    Was that thunder I heard to the northeast... toward Toranto?

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Well Nick you are certainly right on Twins' chances for Ryu!  It was just not in the DNA of this franchise to take such a risk - a stance that is an insult to the fans, the current roster, and totally indefensible.  I can only conclude the surest path to the executive suite at the Pohlad-run Twins organization is to run scared, take limited risks and hope to get lucky!

     

    But as a perennial optimist, despite having little faith left in the One Trade Wonder Boys, I, too, look to the trade mart as our last best hope.  Sure, we will probably dumpster dive like last year for 2020's Martin Perez reclamation project for someone like Hill, Woods, et.al, now the only way to pick up a top of the rotation guy is by trade.  Not that I think Falvine has the balls to pull off such a major acquisition, but on a day when most TD readers are way down, let's spread a little hope, anyways.

     

    Robbie Ray is also my first choice, eve though his past record shows only one big year.  You can't ignore his SO rate and he is certainly worth trading for.  The Dbacks need outfield help, so start with Rosario and some mid level prospects (#10-20) they might like.  Obviously, this trade doesn't get done unless FO has a tacit agreement for an extension.  Lots of reasons this wouldn't work, but every effort must be made in an attempt to salvage what has been a disastrous offseason.

     

    Don't agree on Matz, as he really hasn't had a breakout year and his peripherals just aren't that good.  While an extreme longshot, I would try for Thor again, starting with Buxton, and some top prospects.  He is my favorite Twin, but he's probably the one Twin who might get the conversation moving.  Do I expect this FO to try?  No, but doesn't hurt to speculate what they should be doing.

     

    I would go all out for Blake Snell, who is coming off an injury-plagued off year.  The Rays are always looking to shed payroll and add some offense.  Any 2 of our top 4 pitching prospects should be offered, along with one of our thumpers, like Sano, Rosario, or one of our top 2 -3 position players,e.g., Lewis, Larnach or Kirillof.  The Rays owe us big time for the Garza trade!  Maybe they'll take pity on us!

     

    Yes, it's a shame we'll have to give up some major assets, both present and future, to strengthen a staff by trade rather than a far less painful free agency signing.  But if this team is going to continue to be a factor in the playoffs with a decent prospect of advancing for the first time 1n 17 years, they simply have no choice at this time.  Either think big or fall back!

     

     

     

     

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    I’d be fine with either of these guys or a half dozen others they could trade for. Having a QO option for whoever the role filler is is nice. For 2021 the Twins could be looking at a rotation headed by the B-sty Boyz with Balazovic, Brusdar, and Berrios so the long term concerns in a trade acquisition here could be a moot point. While that has yet to happen they do have a number of good arms coming up to vie for those rotation spots who will be controllable and in the near term cheap. Ideally that will allow them to retain Sano and Buxton AND have a good rotation.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Well, we arrived at a place that everyone hoped would not exist; the free agent pitchers are off the board and trades or rookies are the only options remaining.

    As much as I did believe there was the money and possibility for the Twins to sign one of Cole/ Strasburg/ Bumgarner/ Wheeler/ Ryu or Keuchel, it didn't happen. I really thought Julio Teheran for 2/$18M would happen, if only because of his track record of throwing innings which keeps a team in the game and saves the bullpen. Teheran seemed a good match with our offense; Twins win 6-5 games.

    A host of other questions and options now emerge if the team decides to enter the trade market: which of Sano, Buxton, Berrios or other core players are Falvine willing to trade; and which of Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Balazovic, or Larnach are available.

    For now, the Twins will wait to see what decision Donaldson makes.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Matz would be interesting to ask about.  Unless Mets plan to move him to pen, he could be a buy low guy.  It may depend on how many others are inquiring.

     

    Ray I do not think will cost all that much, again depending on who is calling.  I again would be willing to take a waiver on him, he has been decent.  

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    All prospects we don't expect at Target Field by Sept. 2020 should be available in trade. 

    All pitchers named Berrios should be extended this winter.

    Falvery/Levine cannot/will not begin spring training in Feb with this current collection of starting pitching. 

    In my opinion, more to come.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    I'd be interested in Ray because he has STUFF.  With only one year of team control (and the option of a QO) I would think Rosario would be sufficient, maybe even expand the deal to multiple players.  The idea that we would have to offer MORE than Eddie just doesn't make sense for a pitcher with only one year of control.  Ray at least could POSSIBLY beat the Yanks in a playoff game.  Matz would get shelled.  Someone, somewhere had suggested a trade for Ray and another pitcher (current minor leaguer).  I can't remember the pitchers name.  And hey, if Boston needs salary relief and would consider Price or Rodriquez (who I prefer to Price) why not make a play for a true Ace like Sale ??  

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    provided he accepts. Which I'm guessing Odorizzi regrets.

    Then you have leverage to negotiate a long-term deal, or you get a draft pick. I'm just saying, I don't see the one year of control as a bad thing for someone who is something of a wild-card rebound candidate. Obviously the acquisition cost should be reflective though.  

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    I also like the idea of Snell or Thor.  If you're going to go the trade route, make a splash for someone who would front our rotation.  The only way we compete in the playoffs is if someone better than Berrios is our #1 and everyone behind him gets pushed back one spot.  We have the prospects.  Let's make a DEAL !!!

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Pass on both. I would rather make a deal with Pittsburgh for either Archer or Musgrove. More years of team control and probably better than the 2 mentioned.

    Archer needs a .500 season first. He tantalizes. Perhaps he would have a good record against all of the bad teams that lose in the AL Central.
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    Archer needs a .500 season first. He tantalizes. Perhaps he would have a good record against all of the bad teams that lose in the AL Central.

     

    Pittsburgh is going to be awful, I don't see how he's going to have a .500 record, I also don't see why his W/L record matters.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    Because if he was special his team would be winning more games.
    It's not like his WHIP is 1.1 or he has low ERAs.

     

    He still has a 94-95 MPH fastball, a wipeout slider and dropped the Pittsburgh-mandatory sinker midway through last year and his peripheral stats are always show he's better than his ERA. 

     

    I like those things as better indicators of future results.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    He still has a 94-95 MPH fastball, a wipeout slider and dropped the Pittsburgh-mandatory sinker midway through last year and his peripheral stats are always show he's better than his ERA. 

     

    I like those things as better indicators of future results.

     

    I'd be good with a trade for Archer over either of these two options for sure. Of course, he'll cost money and prospects.....not just money.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    He still has a 94-95 MPH fastball, a wipeout slider and dropped the Pittsburgh-mandatory sinker midway through last year and his peripheral stats are always show he's better than his ERA.

     

    I like those things as better indicators of future results.

    When you are 60-80 lifetime that's indicative of who you are. Oh, you might win half his starts, but, spending millions for him?

     

    Depends upon what you give up for him.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    When you are 60-80 lifetime that's indicative of who you are. Oh, you might win half his starts, but, spending millions for him?

    Depends upon what you give up for him.

     

    Wins and losses are dependent on the team you are pitching for.  Archer led the league in losses with 19 on a 94 loss Tampa team despite a 4.02 ERA and 3.81 FIP.  Using a SP W/L record by itself is a pretty awful metric.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Wins and losses are dependent on the team you are pitching for. Archer led the league in losses with 19 on a 94 loss Tampa team despite a 4.02 ERA and 3.81 FIP. Using a SP W/L record by itself is a pretty awful metric.

    In his 80 losses his ERA is 6.2. He can get rocked. He's been on the IL list. Perhaps he bounces back and has a good season, then some team can sign him for a $100 million.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

     

    In his 80 losses his ERA is 6.2. He can get rocked. He's been on the IL list. Perhaps he bounces back and has a good season, then some team can sign him for a $100 million.

     

    what realistic plan do you like at this point?

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    what realistic plan do you like at this point?

    Well, you say you don't have a minor leaguer ready to start the season. That seems to be happening since Berrios. Last year the Cards have 2 young rookies or near rookies that took off in the last 2 months of the season or they don't make it to the playoffs.

     

    Any long relievers that can start? I can't believe that Rosario can't bring a Jon Gray like pitcher. 1 or 2 year deals if the minors are going to produce soon.

     

    5 Inning pitchers if you have good mid-relief pitching. Perhaps tradeline deals.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    I also like the idea of Snell or Thor. If you're going to go the trade route, make a splash for someone who would front our rotation. The only way we compete in the playoffs is if someone better than Berrios is our #1 and everyone behind him gets pushed back one spot. We have the prospects. Let's make a DEAL !!!

    I don't feel like there is anyway that Tampa gets rid of Snell. Right now they have one of the best rotations in baseball, the team that invented the opener won't be using that strategy next year I don't believe. I'd think if Tampa traded anyone it would be Morton. Right now the rotation looks like

    Snell

    Morton

    Glasnow

    Chirinos

    Yarbrough

    Mckay

     

    Snell is only 27, Glasnow 26, Chirinos is like 25 and Yarbrough is 27. McKay is only 23 and looks to have a very bright future as a possible two way player. To me that leaves Morton at 36 as the guy they'd trade if anyone. Unless of course they get blown away by someone for Snell. Heck the Twins would have to do something big for Morton

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites




    Join the conversation

    You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
    Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

    Guest
    Add a comment...

    ×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

      Only 75 emoji are allowed.

    ×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

    ×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

    ×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

    Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...