Twins' Payroll Analysis: Three Pitchers, $70M

Of course, if you can get a stud starter, you have to take him. It changes the outlook for the entire year; however, getting one is another matter. The Twins don't have a sparkling history when it comes to landing a stud.

Something a little outside the box I would like to see is the Twins go after Yu Darvish on a trade.  He ranked 7th among all starters in K% and 10th in xFIP.  His ERA and FIP were inflated due to uncharacteristically high HR% which may be solved by leaving Wrigley and can help reduce his trade cost. he is down to 4Y/$81M on his contract which helps reduce the risk.  

He was paid market value for performance he hasn't come close to in the last two years.   I was already thinking, I wonder what it would take to get Darvish.     I don't think you would need to part much in way of prospects and was also thinking the cubs might pick up part of the bill to get out from under.   Worth a flyer anyway.

Sorry, but I almost feel like a copy and paste since I've pretty much said these things in other threads, but my thoughts haven't changed, so here I go again.

Couple quick points/thoughts:

1] The $60-$70M budget to work with is easy, and what I've been working with. That pretty much keeps the 2020 payroll static. That DOES NOT mean the payroll won't increase, it was larger in 2018. The FO is on record...with no set $ amount of course...as stating they would add when the window was open and it seemed right to do so. The mean for 2020, speculating, should be around $150M in MLB. I don't necessarily expect that as the FO undoubtedly is looking at additional extensions.

2] I absolutely believe the FO is willing to trade a handful of top 10-30 prospects in the right deal. And as deep as the system is, it would be able to handle a mkve like that easily. But they also want sustainability, and there is no way 2 major trades are made to gut the system.

All that being said:

A] Odorizzi will be targeted, initial QO or not. I see no reason why he wouldn't want to return. I also see no reason why a 3yr deal, possibly 4yr or an option year, at around $14-15M per wouldn't work.

B] While his suspension hurt the end of this season and will impact the start of the next, I believe Pineda will be brought back. And I like that idea. It makes sense, I'm uncertain of length but $12M sounds about right all things considered.

C] I think Castro is back, no big offer forthcoming from anyone else, for about $4-5M. Cron is also back for about $5Mm unless someone can show me a better alternative for the same $. And, I also bring back Romo on a 1yr for about $3-4M, small bump from this season and very fair.

Anyway you slice it, gives you approximately $30M to find another rotation arm you really need.

D] Does Cole really $30M or more? I'd like to see him in a Twins uniform, but 1/5th of total payroll for 1 SP and for 5-6yrs? I just don't know. Logic would tell me contact like that would only come from N.Y., L.A., Boston, etc. If offered something close, would he choose the Twins and Rocco and Johnson and Target Field and a strong team who's window just opened?

I'm saying it won't happen, even if the Twins really put themselves out there, due to many factors from bright lights to being from California, etc. So I move down a peg.

I like Wheeler. But Bumgarner is my next target. It's time for the Giants to rebuild, and time for MadBum to look elsewhere for $, a change of scenery, and a chance to win. I'm nervous about the number of IP and being 32yo in 2020. He is not what he once was. But everything I've read seems the velocity is still good, and peripherals are solid, despite a somewhat mediocre 2019. Is he nearing the end? Or was it just a down season and a new challenge, environment and pitching coach just what he needs? 2 or 3yrs or however options play in to it, he'd come in around $16-18M for career production mixed in with speculation.

Personally, I think it's about 50/50 the Twins sign someone vs making a trade.

E] Whether FA or smaller trade, I'd make a move for a 2nd LH for the pen.

All said and done, Cole and my LHRP meets or slightly bumps the 2020 payroll. Extensions bump it a little more, and we still don't hit the MLB mean. That allows even more flexibility for additions, etc. If it's a Bumgarner, Wheeler, Trade addition, even with said LHRP, the payroll stays about the same, even with extensions. And that's not necessarily bad!

**Notes: Not convinced Perez is back regardless, but could be in the Bumarner/Trade scenario. Unfortunately, Gibson is gone unless it's a small incentive laden deal. Dyson could be retained on a split 2yr deal for $750K-1M 1st year rehab and something like $4-5M 2nd year deal, but not figuring him in here for obvious reasons.

2020 STAFF, allowing for 26 man roster and POTENTIAL 13 man staff:

Rotation;

1 & 2] Berrios, Bumgarner/Trade (leaving Cole out)

3] Odorizzi

4] Pineda (after time served)

5] Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe, Graterol (Perez, Gibson, Fljer)

Bullpen:

1] Rogers

2] Duffey

3] May

4] Romo

5] LH FA/Trade

6] Littell

7] Smeltzer

8] Romero, Poppen, Flier, and about anyone and everyone else

Darvish gave the Cubs 178 innings of 3.98 ERA, 1.1 WHIP pitching, with 11.5 K/9.

My guess is the Cubs aren't looking to get out of anything. If they are, the Twins should jump at it.

Thanks for the correction.   I misread his stats.   You are correct.  He may be one of the rare suck to start the contract and then do great on the back end guys.

Hey, do we bring back Pat Neshek for 30-45 innings?

"Can we get rid of this perceived reputation?"

That reputation didn't come from nowhere, it was earned. And when I say rookies and castoffs I'm not referring to the 2019 team. The Twins spent big on Mauer and what did they put around him? Little to nothing, certainly nothing in free agency. What assurance does a top free agent have that the owners won't revert to form? My point is that adding long-term assets via trade first may make it easier to convince potential free agents that the team is committed to winning, not simply being competitive enough to maintain ticket sales. 

I'll ask again.... Look at the leaderboards, and tell me who will be available that is better, that won't cost a lot more? And I said fifteen, or is that the difference here?

I think there is a big difference between 15 - 19.

I am fine with bringing Odo back, but he is who he is, a 5 inning pitcher, and if the front office really understands that and realize a team with a bunch of 5 inning starters needs a damn good bullpen and stock and spend wisely on that as well that can work. But if they think going 5 innings and bringing 4 guys for 1 inning every night is going to work, they are probably wrong unless they plan on doing the shuttle to triple AAA all year and have room for an extra few relief pitchers with options on the 40 man.

With the way the Twins schedule sets up, they would only need a 5th starter 3 times in their 1st 40 games to still start everyone else on full rest. Plus....the Twins should have more than 5 guys capable of starting a ballgame anyways. They will have Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe, Stashak still in the system if they aren't on the major league club. All are capable of putting together a decent outing.

Because postponements (and therefore doubleheaders) never happen in Minnesota, right?

Also, Berrios wore down this year. And last year. It stands to reason that the Twins are going to try to prevent this going forward. That could involve a “planned” DL stint and/or occasionally extra rest, particularly early.

If the Twins start the season with Smeltzer or Thorpe on the MLB roster, they will have failed the offseason yet again.

We're all in favor of signing a FA starting pitcher. Saying that is easy. The questions are who and who do you keep? Here's my view in order of priority:

 

1. Re-sign Michael Pineda. 2-3 years, 12-15m a year. Pro-rate first year; now he's penalized enough.

 

2. Re-sign Odorizzi. 3 years, 45-50m. 

 

3. FA starter. Try for Cole (probably a no, he'll be in Houston or go home to SoCal).  Go after Zach Wheeler or Dallas Kuechel. 3 years (2 for Kuechel if you can), roughly 15m a year. I'd love Syndegaard but he isn't a Free Agent and would require a trade. I'd be willing to trade Rosario but the price will be MUCH higher than that if the Mets even consider trading him. I don't think they will. 

 

4. Let Gibson go elsewhere. Starters 5-10 (you need 8-10 to cover injuries) are Perez, Dobnak, Thorpe, Smeltzer, and Graderol. Perez goes if we get a FA starter under #3. 

 

My 2020 rotations:

 

Berrios/FA starter

FA starter/Berrios

Odorizzi

Pineda

Donak/Thorpe/Smeltzer

This sums it up exactly. Very realistic. Cole is bonding big time right now on another post season run. What makes people think we can actually get him? Because we want him? I think we should try and exhaust all avenues but it would be wise to have contingency plans.

 I'd rather have 3, 15 game winners than one 18 game winner and 2, 8-10 game winners.

This is a crucial philosophical point.

Compare a starting rotation of five 15-game winners to a staff of two 21-game winners and three 11-game winners. It's the same number of regular season wins either way, but I'd much rather take the latter rotation into the postseason.

Gerrit Cole can be a shut-down ace. Over the course of 162 games that's good but not necessary. In the postseason it's a huge advantage.

AND CRUZ IS SPECIAL

 

"The 39-year-old Cruz reached the 40-homer mark for the fourth time in the last six seasons, and he's hit at least 37 homers in all of those years. Cruz became just the fourth player in Major League history to post a 40-homer season in his age-38 season or older, joining Barry Bonds (2003-04), Darrell Evans (1985) and Hank Aaron (1973).

Beyond this, Bonds was juicing, Evans did it in his age-38 season, and Aaron played in a band-box which was also the highest-altitude stadium in the majors. Of course, there's also the matter of low-drag 2019 baseballs, but even with that he had a very noteworthy season. If he hits 25 next year it's a good deal for the Twins. After that, keeping in mind he'll turn 42 during 2021, we thank him and praise him for his service and wish him well in his future endeavors.