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  • Twins With Options On The Trade Front


    Ted Schwerzler

    Recent reports have suggested that the Twins may be interested in using the trade market to handle some roster moves this winter. Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press reported that Minnesota has called on names like Gerrit Cole and Jake Odorizzi. Meanwhile, Darren Wolfson of KSTP noted that he sees it more likely Minnesota will use the trade market to strike a deal. With these reports in mind, what do the Twins have to offer?

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    First and foremost, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine sent a message that they intend to be active in the coming weeks and months. In leaving prospects like Jake Reed, Kohl Stewart and Lewin Diaz unprotected from the Rule 5 draft, they also kept four open spots on the 40-man roster. It stands to reason that those spots could be used on more immediate solutions, and potentially, players with higher ceilings. Suggesting that the Twins have four free agents in mind to take the openings is a bad bet, but the flexibility tells us the ball is rolling.

    Guys like Cole and Odorizzi aren’t going to come cheap. They’ve had real success at the big league level and remain under team control going forward. There’s no doubt other names are being talked about, and if they are cut from the same cloth, the Twins won’t be able to simply pry away, at low cost, a player or two. Despite the farm system not being what it was a year or two ago, Minnesota actually has a nice stockpile of options to move, so let’s take a look at some of them.

    The Shortstops:

    This group may be among the most impressive collections in all of baseball. Both Nick Gordon and Royce Lewis are top 100 prospects, while Wander Javier is going to quickly shoot up prospect lists in the next few months. Add in names like Jermaine Palacios and Luis Arraez (more of a 2B), and you’ve got a quality collection of talent. If I’m an opposing club, this is a group that provides plenty of intrigue. If I’m the Twins, Lewis is probably the only player that’s off limits.

    The Arms:

    Although the Twins need pitching at the big league level, you can bet any deal for a true MLB starter is going to cost a prospect in return. Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero are the cream of the Minnesota crop, while Felix Jorge and Brusdar Graterol may be the next men up. The Twins added to the system in the form of names like Enlow, Littell, Leach and Watson over the past year, but it remains an area that any club is looking to build out. Gonsalves appears MLB ready now, and Romero should command a hefty ransom, but an acquisition with a proven track record may be enticing enough to move any of these names.

    The Bats:

    If we’re excluding the depth the Twins have in the middle of the infield on the farm, the offensive side of things takes a bit of a dip. Brent Rooker looks like a stud, and should soon be penciled in to big league lineups in Minnesota. Behind him however, things get a bit more uncertain. Diaz could skate through the Rule 5 draft having not played above Single-A, or the club could look to deal him first. Alex Kirilloff is a presence at the plate, but is coming off a lost season due to injury. Travis Blankenhorn looks the part of a sleeper prospect, and he could be joined by LaMonte Wade or 2017 pick Andrew Bechtold. Kirilloff seems like the most expendable asset here given the likelihood he moves the needle for an opposing club, but in this group there likely is not a cornerstone in any potential deal.

    The Bigs:

    Should the Twins be targeting major league ready talent, they may find themselves needing to give up some proven commodities as well. On such a young team, that’s a scary proposition, as the vast majority see their prime’s lying ahead of them. Eddie Rosario was a trade candidate prior to his breakout 2017, and Max Kepler may still be despite seeing his value sag. Minnesota could flip Jorge Polanco if there’s more belief in the farm options as well. As a whole however, plucking from this group seems like it could definitely come back to bite the hometown team.

    No matter what moves the Twins make, there’s no such thing as getting talent without giving it up. Falvey and Levine are going to have to make hard decisions in acquiring players from another organization. While it’s just money on the free agent market, there’s more to be had through a potential trade. Trusting in evaluations of both their internal assets as well as what they’ll be receiving is obviously integral to the process.

    Personally, I’d prefer to see the Twins dangle some combination built around Gordon or Kirilloff, maybe even getting interesting with international bonus money used. While doling out big paydays has become the norm, finding competitive advantages will always need to be the Twins plan of attack. The hot stove is warming up, and I’d be surprised if we don’t hear some of these scenarios begin to be speculated upon.

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    Santana alone is not going to fetch much. He's got one year left on his contract and it's very likely his production is going to drop, possibly precipitously. A rebuilding team is not going to trade for him. A middling team is not going to trade for him. The type of team that will trade for him is a good contending team with weakness at the back of its rotation. Such a team is unlikely to give up an emerging young pitcher like the Twins need. The best option for the Twins would be to include him as a throw-in to boost their return in a trade involving other players.

    The best option for the Twins is to keep him. He fills a big hole competently.

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    Agree with probably keeping Santana. Only teams interested in him, due to age and not because he's not valuable, are contenders needing another starter. But that also creates another hole in the Twins rotation to be solved. Whereby, keeping him, at least for one more quality season, allows for a prospect to be more ready or experienced to step up in 2019.

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    IMO, while there are certainly scenarios where it could work out just fine, I'd really like to see the team...not gut the farm...but do a legitimate, quality 4 (or 5) for 1 deal and keep the ML roster intact.

     

    I think the roster, overall, is constructed well and filled with such potential that I would hate to lose Rosario or Kepler. While I love Polanco, and believe in him, keeping Dozier and letting Adrianza play SS at least works.

     

    If not the FA route, or international route, I'd keep the roster intact and try a Gordon, Romero, Jorge and player "X" option.

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    If Kepler or Rosario is added, plus swapping out Gonsalves or Romero for Jorge, then maybe.

    If it's Archer i could see it being Rosario, Gordon, Romero and one lesser pitching prospect such as Littell or Gonsalves. I'd could also see a deal involving Dozier (they could use an established 2nd baseman). As everyone knows it will take A LOT to pry Archer away from the Rays if they are even considering it.

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    Santana alone is not going to fetch much. He's got one year left on his contract and it's very likely his production is going to drop, possibly precipitously. A rebuilding team is not going to trade for him. A middling team is not going to trade for him. The type of team that will trade for him is a good contending team with weakness at the back of its rotation. Such a team is unlikely to give up an emerging young pitcher like the Twins need. The best option for the Twins would be to include him as a throw-in to boost their return in a trade involving other players.

     

    I disagree, an older playoff competing team could trade for him to solidify the back end or middle of their rotation. I could see a deal where the Twins get back a promising AA prospect and a less developed pitching prospect from a lower level. Downside is that it would make them (Twins) less competitive in the short term. We have Santana for two years at a team friendly contract but he's already 34. At the conclusion of his deal he's likely declining at age 36/37 which won't help Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Kepler in the years that follow unless the Twins feel he's worth resigning and still has some gas left. If the Twins don't trade for a top of the rotation starter or sign a significant free agent pitcher or two i think they should consider making him available for the right price. Edited by laloesch
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    Yes they do.  Because they are rebuilding and want to shed salary.  I bet that if you call the Mets, or the Dodgers, or the Dbacks, or the Angels (for example), they do not hang the phone.

    The Pirates goal in trading Cole, McCutchen or Rivero will mostly be to rebuild with young prospects. They might want to save money but that will not be the focus of any trades that they make. If you were a fan of the Pirates then you would never be proposing anything like this during a rebuild moment.

     

    The Dodgers for example are most definitely not going to trade a young and good pitcher (Wood) for Dozier. Perhaps they are desperate enough to trade Urias but he was firmly on the untouchable list last year.

     

    The Mets or DBacks are theoretically plausible but they will likely want something else for good, young and established starting pitching. These teams know exactly why you want to trade him. It isn't a secret that he is a FA in a year.

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    The Dodgers for example are most definitely not going to trade a young and good pitcher (Wood) for Dozier. Perhaps they are desperate enough to trade Urias but he was firmly on the untouchable list last year.

    Urias has the same injury as Johan Santana. I remember seeing reporters tweet that they fear his career may be over. Wish I could remember which reporters but it was mentioned during and after the season on twitter. So they may not be so clingy about him anymore.
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    Because, esp. the Mets, they would value a veteran presence.'

     

    And Santana does not come alone.  Dozier will be included in the trade, and both of these teams are sorely lacking second basemen. 

     

    The trade is Santana+Dozier for 1 young top of the rotation SP.

    (and what it takes to balance it on both sides in prospects)

     

    I just don't see it. It's a very low opinion of the intelligence of the Met's FO. I could certainly see trading Santana, especially if that netted some prospects that could be combined with some of our prospects to get a guy like Archer, but I don't see a scenario where the Mets trade for him, and I'm not sure 1 year of Dozier for a team that won 70 games last year is going to encourage them to part for a front line starter.

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    Urias has the same injury as Johan Santana. I remember seeing reporters tweet that they fear his career may be over. Wish I could remember which reporters but it was mentioned during and after the season on twitter. So they may not be so clingy about him anymore.

    I wasn't sure how serious his injury was but that also means that the Twins probably wouldn't target him. The point remains that the Dodgers are parting with a young and very good starter for one year of Dozier.

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    I wasn't sure how serious his injury was but that also means that the Twins probably wouldn't target him. The point remains that the Dodgers are parting with a young and very good starter for one year of Dozier.

    Right. I was just pointing it out in case you weren't aware. I think there are certain levels of seriousness of the injury, so maybe he'll be fine. There is small sample size of pitchers who have had the surgery, I think like five, and the results are bad.

     

    Personally I don't think the Dodgers are going to trade for a 2B again. They'll hope Forsythe is healthy and better in the regular season than he was last year. He did decently in the playoffs. Having a good 2B seems more like a luxury for them rather than a need. They won a lot of games without Forsythe's help.

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    I'm still convinced the best idea is to trade Polanco while his value is likely at it's highest.  No matter how much I'm a believer in the fact he can be a .280 / .330 / .400 hitter ... I'm really concerned about the glove.  Sign Cozart who will be undervalued as a medium term replacement (check out his defensive ability) and wait for one of the prospects to pan out.  

     

    I'm also not a fan of overpaying for Escobar (as much of a savior as he was) unless we determine that Sano is just going to be perpetually overweight and injured.  Those $$$ should go elsewhere. 

     

    With this said, I fully expect Eddie to be back on the team.  As for Jorge, I probably am dreaming there ... but he should net a decent return from some team.  

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    The Pirates goal in trading Cole, McCutchen or Rivero will mostly be to rebuild with young prospects. They might want to save money but that will not be the focus of any trades that they make. If you were a fan of the Pirates then you would never be proposing anything like this during a rebuild moment.

     

    Well, I kinda happen to live in a semi Pirates fan base and the word here is $ relief.

     

    Also who of:

     

    Kepler, Kirilloff, Gordon, Gonsalves (2 of) Burdi, Bard, Reed, Melotakis

     

    is not a young player a team would not like to build on?

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    Well, I kinda happen to live in a semi Pirates fan base and the word here is $ relief.

     

    Also who of:

     

    Kepler, Kirilloff, Gordon, Gonsalves (2 of) Burdi, Bard, Reed, Melotakis

     

    is not a young player a team would not like to build on?

    Those are all perfectly fine pieces, but the Pirates can do better.

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    Well, I kinda happen to live in a semi Pirates fan base and the word here is $ relief.

     

    Also who of:

     

    Kepler, Kirilloff, Gordon, Gonsalves (2 of) Burdi, Bard, Reed, Melotakis

     

    is not a young player a team would not like to build on?

    Dozier and Santana aren't and they are in your trade. The Pirates will want all players like the first four that you named and likely a headliner top prospect.

    The last 4 are eligible for the Rule V draft. No value. Zero

     

    Yes, they will want money relief but they primary focus will be the rebuilding part. And that means prospects instead of 1 year rentals. And if money relief is the focus of their trade then they will want COMPLETE relief instead of partial relief taking back contracts.

    The thing that you and everyone needs to do when making trades is 'would I do this if I was running the other team?' You almost certainly wouldn't trade for Dozier if you were rebuilding a team. That is a lateral move or actually a 1 step forward and 2 steps back since he is older and controlled for fewer years than the players that you are trading away.

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    I'm still convinced the best idea is to trade Polanco while his value is likely at it's highest.  No matter how much I'm a believer in the fact he can be a .280 / .330 / .400 hitter ... I'm really concerned about the glove.

    Point well taken, but I think (and I would guess Falvine think) that Polanco is the second baseman of the future. Keep him if possible.

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