Twins Trade Luis Arraez for Marlins' Pitcher Pablo López

Changed my mind. This is a good deal. Since Arraez is most valuable when hitting with runners in scoring position, it was unlikely that he would make an impact on the Twins as they would rarely have runners in scoring position when he is at bat. Nor would they have anyone who might drive him in when he's on second. 

  On 1/20/2023 at 9:49 PM, KGB said:

All these trades for pitching the last couple years, make me wonder when the "pitching pipeline" is going to kick in.

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Cleveland's "pitching pipeline" wasn't just developed through the draft, they traded for minor leaguers and developed them, they traded for veterans to be placeholders, and signed FA's, some of them coming off of injuries hoping to re-establish themselves.

  On 1/20/2023 at 10:55 PM, CRF said:

Just read that according to their GM, the fish plan to play Arraez at 2nd and move Jazz Chisholm to CF. 

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Wow...if true, let's see how long that lasts.

  On 1/20/2023 at 10:04 PM, yellan said:

Question: why did the Twins shop Arraez rather than Polanco?  I feel like Arraez' skill set is much rarer, and more likely to age well.  Is this simply a case of selling high?

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The skill set may age well, but the player may not. Arraez has missed time almost every season, if not every season, due to leg issues, mainly his knees.  

The 0-2 pinch hit walk was legendary.   He's a nice player 

  On 1/20/2023 at 9:08 PM, HawksNest said:

I get that folks are upset to see Arraez go, I am too, but if we remove the emotion or "fan" glasses from the situation and consider the context of the move, etc. then it makes clear that this is a pretty good move for the Twins.

Arraez was a joy to watch, but let's face it, he was an undersized, positionless, slap hitter, with bad knees that has battled injuries every season. 

I think some of you are underselling how good Pablo Lopez really is. The guy had a 2.92 ERA last year if you remove his starts against the Mets (for whatever reason, the Mets REALLY had his number last year). 

This stretches the rotation even deeper and for the first time I can remember, we have 5 LEGIT starting pitchers (I know non of them are aces).

We also add a top 100 prospect that likely slides into a top 5 spot in our organization. 

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I think some of you are underselling how good Pablo Lopez really is. The guy had a 2.92 ERA last year if you remove his starts against the Mets (for whatever reason, the Mets REALLY had his number last year). Please dont remind me of stats like that,  it the same as saying   PAGAN is a all-star if you take away his stats against Cleveland, 

Arraez was my favorite Twin along with Buxton but this is a fair trade. It tells me some things.

1. The Twins think Kirilloff is going to be healthy and ready to go coming out of spring training and he will play 1B.

2. Our long relief is going to be much better than last year as this pushes guys from being starters to there.

3. We think Julien, Martin and Lee are advancing well and one or two of them will be opening day starters in 2024.

4. You never have enough pitching (or SS's in the minors, wow).

5. The Twins training staff has doubts about Arraez's knees more than they doubt Polanco's back/ankle.

My big question, as others have asked, who is going to be our OBP guy so other guys have someone to drive in? I still think Kepler will be traded but, if not, you could have a really good late inning defensive lineup of Vazquez, Farmer (in for Miranda), Correa, Polanco, Kirilloff, Gallo, Buxton and Kepler.

  On 1/20/2023 at 9:35 PM, jmlease1 said:

I'd say the record is mixed: Joe Ryan was a great trade and a huge win. Maeda? Great that short season, before the elbow let go in 2021, but still might have been worth it. Jury is out on Paddack still; Rogers was bad for SD and worse for MKE so it's not like we really lost anything. (I'm sorry, I don't have much patience for people who insist that Rogers would have been a great closer last season if he hadn't been dealt. Doubtful, yo. very doubtful) Gray was a pretty good acquisition. Jury is out on Mahle; if he has a good year then we're in decent shape there, if he doesn't then they crapped out badly. Simeon Wood Richardson is looking very promising?

I think that's the most significant starting pitching deals they've made until Pablo Lopez...

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Rogers was garbage for the Twins, I think had the Twins kept him, they would have had similar bullpen meltdowns as they experienced with Duffey and Pagan. My issue with this trade is Lopez is not an Ace. He is another #3 starter. If your team is full of #3 starters, you're probably not gonna see the postseason. He is better than Bundy and Archer yes, but I don't think he was worth dealing the reigning batting champ for.

  On 1/20/2023 at 10:26 PM, miracleb said:

Arraez just didn't have a spot in the field.  Slap hitting 1st baseman....not a recipe for success.  Did I mention he is also a short first baseman.   I'm sure he is an awesome teammate......but I love this trade!

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Do you remember Rod Carew by any chance? That worked our pretty well for the Twins.

  On 1/20/2023 at 10:25 PM, se7799 said:

But honestly you had 3 years to do so.  Sounds like our FO said yes let's trade him you now since you were right about to buy a jersey

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Except I was waiting for the prices on the new stuff to go down before I did. I planned to buy one after last season but once I heard about the rebrand I decided to hold off. Now I am glad I did.

I'll miss Luis no doubt. Super charismatic. He has his flaws and the Twins sold high. As a long time Twins fan I have never seen pitching depth like this. I'm excited for an owner who actually likes baseball, Joe, but the big questions here are health and do many of these players have great years? 

luis added so much to the game that is missing now. he was exciting to watch, every at bat was a must see. he battled and will continue to battle at the plate. his gestures. his hitting 0-2. his pure fun playing the game. sure, maybe...maybe, this is a good team trade - i guess we'll see over time, however, as a fan favorite it stings. it really hurts. for a while at least. seeing the twins play won't be quite as fun.

New Line Up:

1B Killeroff

2B Polanco

SS Correa

3B Miranda

C Jeffers / Vazquez

OF Kepler

OF Buxton

OF Gallo

DH Larnarch / Wallner / Gordon / Garlick

Bench: Farmer

Rotation:

Lopez

Gray

Mahle

Ryan

Maeda

With SWR, Ober, Varland, Winder, Dobnak and Balazovich all waiting for a chance.  

  On 1/20/2023 at 8:20 PM, roger said:

Today is the saddest day I can recall as a Twins fan.  Right up there with that spring training day I went to Hammond Field and heard that Kirby Puckett had been scratched from that day's lineup.  Sad.  Sad.  Sad.

Yes, I will still be a Twins fan.  But the excitement of following this team just went down the crapper.  When will people realize that someone who just flat out gets on base has as much value as anyone in the game.  

Don't know much about Lopez, although I am not thrilled that he has only two years before free agency.  Know nothing about the kid coming along, but don't we already have too bloody many shortstops?  Hopefully, the PTBNL is a young version of Willie Mays.  Did I already say I have a tear in my eyes as I write this comment?

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Another sad day too , arraez was a makor leaguer and a favoritexto watch hit and play the game with a passion , I'm sure arraez is sad too , thextwins have been his only organization ...

It tough right now thinking i should  be a twins fan or should I not ... 

Another sad day was when Calvin traded carew to the angels and when Tony O had to retire ...

  On 1/21/2023 at 12:52 AM, nicksaviking said:

Carew’s worst years were on par with Arraez’s best year. These are not similar players.

I get frustrated, but can accept that even here in 2023 some people still look at a batting average as a sacred number, but even using that, Arraez’s average last year is WAY below what Carew and Gwynn did for their careers.
 

Arraez is more like Denard Span, is Span couldn’t play CF or steal bases.

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Pitchers are way better and throw a lot harder in today's game than in Carew's day so the comparison isn't apples to apples. They are both contact slap hitters with little power who are almost the same build who started as 2nd baseman then moved to first. Arraez is the closest thing to Carew the majors has.

There was literally an article on this website with the comparison from last summer:

  On 1/20/2023 at 11:12 PM, lukeduke1980 said:

The 0-2 pinch hit walk was legendary.   He's a nice player 

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Yes it was , he almost sparked a win with that walk against the Mets best reliever  ...

  On 1/21/2023 at 1:00 AM, Brandon said:

New Line Up:

1B Killeroff

2B Polanco

SS Correa

3B Miranda

C Jeffers / Vazquez

OF Kepler

OF Buxton

OF Gallo

DH Larnarch / Wallner / Gordon / Garlick

Bench: Farmer

 

Rotation:

Lopez

Gray

Mahle

Ryan

Maeda

With SWR, Ober, Varland, Winder, Dobnak and Balazovich all waiting for a chance.  

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The problem is that Rocco manages by computer algorithm, which dictates that most starters will not face a lineup for a third time. So it’s five innings and turn the game over to the BP. Hopefully Pagan will not be part of it. But if you are Mahle, Maeda, or Gray why would you sign an extension here if the manager doesn’t trust you?

  On 1/20/2023 at 9:55 PM, dex8425 said:

Yeah, who bats 1-2-3? Buxton, Polanco, Correa? Polanco could hit leadoff too. 

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Knowing Rocco like I do , he mostvlikely will bat Kepler leading off again ...

  On 1/20/2023 at 11:29 PM, mrtwinsfan said:

I think some of you are underselling how good Pablo Lopez really is. The guy had a 2.92 ERA last year if you remove his starts against the Mets (for whatever reason, the Mets REALLY had his number last year). Please dont remind me of stats like that,  it the same as saying   PAGAN is a all-star if you take away his stats against Cleveland, 

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Since we're playing pick-a-stat, For April, Lopez had a 0.39 ERA.  From May 1st to the end of the season, he had a 4.25 ERA. 

Dylan Bundy: April: 2.97 ERA. The rest of the season: 5.23.

Chris Archer: April: 2.93 ERA. The rest of the season: 4.84.

  On 1/21/2023 at 1:33 AM, Otaknam said:

The problem is that Rocco manages by computer algorithm, which dictates that most starters will not face a lineup for a third time. So it’s five innings and turn the game over to the BP. Hopefully Pagan will not be part of it. But if you are Mahle, Maeda, or Gray why would you sign an extension here if the manager doesn’t trust you?

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You won't. So we'll trade Royce Lewis and Jose Miranda for a #3 starter with two years of team control in a couple years. But we'll "win" that trade. Believe me.

I hate to see Arraez leave.  It was a pure joy to watch him hit - and the Twins really need hitters who get on base.   Heck, he won a batting title.   I will never forget the time he stood in at the plate for Cron -- working his way to a walk in a heroic at-bat.   Arraez has heart, he so clearly loves the game.  He worked hard to strengthen his knees and his durability in the last season. 

  On 1/20/2023 at 9:46 PM, mikelink45 said:

The unanswered question now is who gets on base?

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No need. We'll win a lot of 1-0 games on Joey Gallo HR's backed by this ace rotation.

Nice job FO getting value here.  We all will miss Luis and his AB's but as I mentioned in another thread, the FO needed to take emotion out of this trade and they did that.

That said, although the hard core fans understand this trade, the casual fans who come to the park to watch Luis bat will be furious.  I suspect that the gate revenue will suffer for the beginning of the season.

Just what we needed. Another Lopez to tank. Too bad these guys that can’t produce star pitchers can’t trade for them either. Another #3 for a batting champ. SMH. 

I want to see Lopez get an additional 3 year extension. Since the FO traded away our favorite guy, we might as well get to grieve for 5 years instead of 2. 

I loved watching Arraez bat and feel his skill is a sad lost art. However it seems the Twins have had a Polanco/Arraez issue for several years now. Playing both out of position often. The Twins missed on selling high on Polanco but pulled it off with Arraez. This trade is good value and settles more players into correct roles. It still may not workout long term but it seems to be the right move.

  On 1/21/2023 at 12:30 AM, rwilfong86 said:

Rogers was garbage for the Twins, I think had the Twins kept him, they would have had similar bullpen meltdowns as they experienced with Duffey and Pagan. My issue with this trade is Lopez is not an Ace. He is another #3 starter. If your team is full of #3 starters, you're probably not gonna see the postseason. He is better than Bundy and Archer yes, but I don't think he was worth dealing the reigning batting champ for.

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Having a rotation of #3 starters gives you a good chance of making the post season.  The problem is matching up in the post season once you get there.

Arraez was just not good enough to get an Ace.  It takes a package that is really going to hurt to get an ace and we can't make team's agree.  They want to keep them as badly as we would like to acquire them.  The return of a very good pitcher a top 100 prospect and a third player with a high ceiling is a very good return.  Obviously, this trade has the potential to good badly just like any other trade.  However, the addition of two high ceiling prospects provides the potential for this trade to be very productive trade for the Twins.  I hate to lose Arraez but this is the type of deal, especially with Julien, Martin, and Lee getting close, that can make us better for many years.