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  • Twins Trade Luis Arraez for Marlins' Pitcher Pablo López


    Ted Schwerzler

    The Minnesota Twins have been engaged in discussions for Miami Marlins starting pitcher Pablo López since at least December. Today that became a reality when they flipped 2022 American League batting champion Luis Arraez to South Beach, per Jeff Passan. In addition, the Twins also received two Marlins prospects in the deal, including one in their top five.

    Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

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    Last season for the Marlins, Pablo López posted a 3.75 ERA along with a 3.71 FIP. He’s jumped his strikeouts over one per inning in the past three seasons and continues to develop as a pitcher. His changeup is noteworthy, and his velocity sits in the mid-90s. Having debuted as a 22-year-old in 2018, he’s just entering his age-27 season.

    Minnesota has seemingly been in a never-ending quest for quality starting pitching. After acquiring Cincinnati Reds starters Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle last year, the rotation as a whole grew stronger at the top. While Joe Ryan did start on Opening Day, he projects to slot in as a more middle-to-back-end type of arm. The Twins also will return veteran Kenta Maeda this season, and they have depth in the form of Bailey Ober, Josh Winder, and Simeon Woods Richardson.

    The goal for Derek Falvey this offseason was to acquire a talent that met the Gray-threshold. Ideally,

    Rocco Baldelli needs another arm that can pitch in a short playoff series and be trusted to get the job done. While it may be debatable how close they truly are, López can certainly be that guy.

    Like the Twins did at the deadline, their goal in acquiring arms has been to avoid rentals. They would like to have time to work with pitchers and unlock whatever ceiling is seen for each individual. López is under two more years of team control via arbitration and is projected to make just over $5 million this year per MLB Trade Rumors.

    A pitcher at that level, and with that amount of team control, isn’t going to come without a significant cost. That’s where 2022 American League Batting champion Luis Arraez enters the picture. He is a talented player that is truly beloved in the clubhouse and the fanbase. When unveiling their new uniforms back in November, Minnesota opted to have him on stage, and his smile was beaming. Arraez has only known the Twins organization throughout his professional career.

     

    Minnesota fans know they are giving up a guy that doesn’t strike out, gets on base, and consistently hits for a high average. However, Derek Falvey is also likely conscious of Arraez’s deficiencies. Arraez has balky knees that have kept him from finishing seasons in recent years and is limited defensively, starting 94 games at first base and designated hitter last year. He has definitely done an admirable job shoring up first base when Baldelli needed him this year, but that position could be ticketed for Alex Kirilloff , among others, in 2023.

    In the deal, Minnesota also gets Jose Salas from Miami, per Craig Mish. An infield prospect currently ranked 5th in the Marlins pipeline, he is a 19-year-old that spent 2022 playing at Single-A. With a .722 OPS across 109 games, Salas flashed some power blasting nine home runs. Baseball America’s profile of him this year concluded that “No matter where he winds up on the diamond, his offensive skills will make him a valuable player.” So the Twins add more young talent to their up-the-middle prospects on the farm.

    The final piece of the deal going to Minnesota is 17-year-old outfield prospect Byron Chourio , per Mark Feinsand. He made his professional debut in the Dominican Summer League last season playing 51 games. The .838 OPS was impressive, and largely backed by his nine doubles. There is some speed there as well considering he swiped 19 bases.

    There’s no denying that Minnesota is getting a very good arm back in this deal, but López will have the weight of the world on his shoulders each time he goes out, knowing a fan favorite and clubhouse good guy was his price.

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    I'm fine with the deal. The overall value seems pretty solid and I think the Twins were overstocked on the infield with Kirilloff, Polanco, Correa, Miranda, Arraez, Gordon, and Farmer (plus Lewis, Lee, Austin and Julien potentially to being ready at some point this season).

    The Twins have built some pretty good starting pitching depth for upcoming season. The team is still lacking a true #1 starter, but I'd rate the Twins #2-10 starters as being as good a group as there is in the Majors.

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    I think the Twins were smart to deal Arraez prior to the shift being implemented. I think his bat-to-balls skills won't quite out-pace the league like they did last year.  Likewise, a guy like Kepler could see his bat really improve due to the shift being banned, and he could increase his value as an asset in season.

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    1 minute ago, KGB said:

    All these trades for pitching the last couple years, make me wonder when the "pitching pipeline" is going to kick in.

    Clearly it hasn't beyond Ober (and Ryan, if you want to count him), but at least the FO is addressing the situation by acquiring starters by any means.

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    I love Arraez but I thought the Twins would have to give up more than Arraez to make this deal because of his limited power, limited versatility and injury history. Getting a top five prospect and another young prospect from Miami made this deal even better. And they still haven’t traded Julien, Lee, and Lewis. 

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    Four thoughts.  First, trading Arraez hurts emotionally for me and many, but he is also an on base machine.  We now have lost Arraez and Urshela who were two of our best OBP players last year.  Hopefully, Gallo or one of the young guys steps up this year.  Second, it does appear that the FO is trying to make us more athletic in adding the two youngsters.  That is a good thing as Miranda, Larnach, Wallner, and Kirilloff are not really "athletic."  Third, I would have preferred one of the other guys with more control and upside, but I suspect the asking price was rich.  We need to get our pitching pipeline going as trading for pitchers is way too costly.  Finally, I think more is coming.

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    I think Lopez slots as our best SP.  This is key as I don't think Maeda can pitch more than 120 innings. 

    However, I will greatly miss every Arraez at bat.  I fully expected him to "hit it where they ain't" every time and was disappointed when that didn't happen.

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    This one hurts, but Gray is 32 and will probably want more years/money than the Twins feel comfortable with.  Mahle had shoulder issues last year and will be at least midseason before Twins feel like possibly offering an extension and Maeda is 34 and Twins should see what he wants, and if doesn't work he walks at the end of the season.  Ryan to me is a #4 starter with some upside.  So where is your ongoing pitching coming from?  Some of the prospects will probably make it, but asking 3 of them for next year seems like a lot.

    Julien will be here, and had no open spot. So they made one.  Now the question is what do the Twins do with Polonco? (Kepler is good as gone).  

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    5 minutes ago, yellan said:

    Question: why did the Twins shop Arraez rather than Polanco?  I feel like Arraez' skill set is much rarer, and more likely to age well.  Is this simply a case of selling high?

    one part selling high, one part Polanco being a more valuable player since he's a more effective 2B and can hit for power.

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    1 hour ago, rwilfong86 said:

    Yep this is a loss. An average pitcher for the batting champion and fan favorite. At least I didn't get an Arraez jersey yet. Oh well. 

    But honestly you had 3 years to do so.  Sounds like our FO said yes let's trade him you now since you were right about to buy a jersey

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    Arraez just didn't have a spot in the field.  Slap hitting 1st baseman....not a recipe for success.  Did I mention he is also a short first baseman.   I'm sure he is an awesome teammate......but I love this trade!

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    2 hours ago, TouchEmAllGuy said:

    Good get for the team and the return seems favorable. As a fan, I am disappointed..

    Perfectly summed up for me. ⬆︎

    "Live with ambivalence and learn to love it."

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    Anytime I see a trade like this, I am reminded of the mindset of selling stocks.  If I dump 100 shares of Apple, someone is buying them.  I sell because I think they are going down, the buyer thinks they are going up.  

    Some here think Arraez peaked last year.  I don't, and obviously, the Marlins don't, or they wouldn't have traded for him.   He's 25, and I have no reason to think that he won't do even better at the plate in the next 10 years than he did this year.  

    BUT...I realize the Twins front office has to evaluate what his upside is as opposed to what they get for him, and *I* am not bothered by the $$$ that are in play.  

    Still, all that said, I agree with the lady in THE PRINCESS BRIDE: 

     

    Boo This Man GIF

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