The Top 20 Minnesota Twins Assets of 2023: Part 4 (1-5)

I'm glad to see Joe Ryan get his due. I can't help but feel we are mining fool's gold with two unproven at the MLB level shortstops in the top 5. 

While I enjoy watching Ryan pitch, he has struggled some against the top teams. Joe still has to prove himself against the top lineups.

Lewis and lee are all the future hope and I'm ready to see both play at Target Field this summer.

Meanwhile, Jorge and Byron are proven performers and we hope to see them play often in good health.

Thanks again Nick for your evaluations and I can understand all of them except Jeffers. I think you ranked him according on how important his role is to the Twins rather than his true value. 

Hoping that facing only LHPs his offensive #s will improve but that doesn't negate the fact he can't hit RHPs. Also his above avg. framing doesn't negate his poor arm. Also the fact that SPs preferred him over Sanchez isn't saying much.

Overall he's more of a liability than an asset. It's very sad that FO thinks he's our future. We need to cut bait on him while he still has good trade value. Again before he has no trade value. This year with the rule changes his weaknesses will become very obvious. We need to find a soon MLB ready top catching prospect to actually be our bona vide future catcher.

Should there be just a smidgen of fear for the future if an innings eater, yes, but someone who still needs to show he can get someone other than Detroit out, a guy with two major knee injuries by age 23, a guy who has had ankle injuries serious enough to move him to a safer position and has slumped to  .235 average (his walk increase not withstanding) and now has added a season altering knee injury to the mix, a guy who we just drafted last year and has only had a taste of AA ball so far (though he has done well), and an injury prone guy who, yes, has power to infinity when he connects, but only hit .224 otherwise and only played the field in 58 games, are the top 5 assets in the organization?  Kind of looks like the 3 areas of life insurance (as the commercial goes):  price.....price.....and price.  If you have a team friendly contract and show flashes of greatness when you can stay on the field, you are worth your weight in gold.  

I am not criticizing anything here, just pointing out the fears each one brings to the table along with the great potential.  Just wish one would come without quite as much as the other.  

I really liked this entire series and the ability to discuss and debate these values.  I think Lewis and Lee deserve to be in the top five with Ryan #1 right now.  Until we see some movement on SP he is what we have for the future which makes him more valuable than his talent level would suggest.  I would then move Duran to #2 because this team uses the BP every game for almost half the game.  Without a strong BP we are destined to be a losing team.

Lee would be next for me and I think he is one of the phenoms like Rodriguez in Seattle (and hopefully our own Rodriguez #6). Lewis is  probably #4 because SS is so important and he showed so much talent before getting shut down. Buxton is #5 with potential to soar to number one if he gets healthy (how many years have we written that?).

At 7 and 8 would be Arraez and Miranda who should be our primary offensive drivers. I know that Polanco was in your top five, but I think he has peaked and his value is dropping for me.  I hope I am wrong but for this exercise but I put him at #9 right now.

At this point Ober, Richardson, Prielipp, Varland, and Gray should start the second half of the listing with Gray at the head because he has to lead the rotation this year and can be signed to an extension or used to get the kind of prospects we have been trading away.   I would then put Mahle for the same reason - we need him to be what the tream dreamed of or to be high value trade bait.

#15 Is Alcala who showed so much promise before the injury (I hate to have to use that word again) and could be the second arm in the BP.  I drop Lopez - he has to show me some talent - he and Pagan both are disappointments.

#16 I put Kiriloff and Larnach in a tie - we need both of them and continue to wait to see them on the field.  Again and again injury makes this list look like a roll call at General Hospital.  But both of these players have so much potential.

#18 - Vasquez.  We need a catcher who is at least league average to keep our pitching staff moving forward as well as getting a few hits.  (with his tutelage maybe Jeffers could crawl back into my list).

#19 - Julien with Lewis, Arraez and Polanco having injury issues we need to have another player in line to fill in.

#20 - I like Wallner, but I fear that Gallo just pushed him out of the picture.  I prefer Wallner.   I don't know where Austin fits in, but I would put him in a tie for 20.

Your article is well thought out.  I think relying on Buxton as a number 1 asset is foolish.  This continues to be a Twins FO mistake.  That is to assume he will come back and play a full season and perform like an MVP.  They dont give MVP to part time players.  For the Twins to count on a part time player to finally do something is ridiculous.  This is where the FO must realize that you can't count at all on Buxton.

Question for Nick (and I really only want his opinion).

In your write-up on Lee, you say that he is showing defensive ability that will allow him to play some SS at the major league level.  I've read on this site many comments about his defense and they usually are just the opposite of yours.  I have never seen him play (except for short clips used to prove a specific point).  Have you actually seen him play enough to support your statement?  I'm not disagreeing with you.  I am just trying to find an informed evaluation of his ability rather than an opinion based on "I've heard that" or "many people say" reasoning.  Thanks in advance.

@Nick Nelson Thanks for putting this together.

Thoughts on where you would put Mahle?    E. Julien?

I understand these are value of our assets, which means despite his injuries, Buxton is always going to be high on these.  His value, his production (WAR) in relationship with his contract will always scream high value.

EVERYONE, not just Twins fans, would love to see a 140-160 game season from BB.

If he can finally find a way to shake off the injuries and stay somewhat healthy.

Isn't that like saying if Miguel Sano didn't strike out so much he would be a great player? Instead he finds himself looking for a job.

7 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Based on my understanding, the general knock on him is that he's too big to play SS long-term, which is valid. But then again he's about the same size as Royce Lewis. Lee has excellent hands and a strong (albeit not amazing) arm. I don't think he'll be an everyday SS in the majors or anything but I think he's more likely to make some appearances there than, say, Austin Martin.

Lee is smaller than Cal Ripken and Alex Rodriguez.  They both did okay when they were in their 20's.

Again, the injury wagon. Who's on it, who is not.

Is Polanco winding down his career as a Twin? What is his future status on the team as he is pushed out by younger talent.

Be interesting to watch Joe Ryan in 2023. Can he adjust?! When he controls the rhythm of his game, he is an Ace. But when he slows, or gets flustered, watch out.

Thanks Nick....one of my favorite series of the year. All of your explanations are solid and helpful.

I would flip Lewis and Polanco only because I would trade Polanco for Lewis but not Lewis for Polanco :)

2 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Ah, but that's the point of the exercise! From Part 1:

"We account for age, contract, controllability, upside, etc. It's not strictly a ranking of trade value, because that would be more team-agnostic, where this list aims to capture a very Twins-specific POV. As such, players at areas of scarcity (i.e. pitching) get elevated while those at areas of abundance (i.e. lefty-swinging corner guys) get downgraded a bit."

Thank you for responding. When I stated Jeffers value I didn't mean trade value but asset value. And I assumed you meant "As such, players at areas of scarcity (i.e. pitching) get elevated while those at areas of abundance (i.e. lefty-swinging corner guys) get downgraded a bit." in your evaluation. And I understand that. But I disagree by my assessment, judging strictly on a liability/ asset basis. And that deciding Jeffers as our future catcher by our FO doesn't cut it. Also looking at both Vazquez & Jeffers in a 3yr window, Vazquez is our starting catcher & Jeffers as back up. Vasquez is a more valuable asset.

IMO areas of weakness & strengths should be addressed differently than individually, Catching depth present & into the future are in shambles so the best way to address that is to trade from our strength corner OF/ 1B/ DH lefty bats. My suggestion is Endy Rodriguez (PIT)

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

Lee is smaller than Cal Ripken and Alex Rodriguez.  They both did okay when they were in their 20's.

Cal was the person I was thinking of, but I think he is anomaly.

How does he compare size-wise to C4?

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

No? Because strikeouts weren't what prevented Sano from being good. He had roughly the same K-rates during his All-Star hay-day as during the past three years. 

Sano's power!!!

I just wish he had panned out with his health and improved his swing a bit.

But D@MN could he hit the ball a MILE and a HALF.

1 hour ago, Rosterman said:

Be interesting to watch Joe Ryan in 2023. Can he adjust?! When he controls the rhythm of his game, he is an Ace. But when he slows, or gets flustered, watch out.

Very true but remember this past year he was a rookie.

I think he has the right mentality, maybe competive-ness is the right word, to be a #1.

Thanks again for putting the list together for all to tear apart:

Asset Value is a difficult term, & to not have a bunch of subjectivity rolled into each choice, is nearly impossible. Most needed - best hitter - health - age/experience - potential - power - defense are all variables along with another 4-5 attributes I’m not listing.

IMO comments:

- Vázquez should be there via some metric or point of view.

- A healthy Mahle could be a solid extension candidate or a trade piece later this summer.

- I’ve beaten to death that Arraez should be in Top 4.

- Last, how do we have 2 SS in the system that are viewed as guys in our Top 5 of assets in the organization & still have a large % of fandom in these posts think “we need a SS” - “we’re desperate for a SS”. Don’t get it???? Farmer is fine until somebody is ready…..even if not until ‘24.

5 hours ago, Mark G said:

I am not criticizing anything here, just pointing out the fears each one brings to the table along with the great potential.  Just wish one would come without quite as much as the other.  

You are not wrong in your assessment. The best players usually have some degree of risk. The Twins have totally eschewed the risk of long term contracts for their own reasons, right or wrong not being important, which will mean a list such as Nick has put together. The balance of healthy/unhealthy makes us question the probability of success for the team at the very least.

58 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

Very true but remember this past year he was a rookie.

I think he has the right mentality, maybe competive-ness is the right word, to be a #1.

Maybe, but a #1 has to be able to beat a #1.  He has to be able to go through the lineup at least at 3rd time and even get his toes wet into a 4th time.  And he has to be able to do it more than just a handful of times a year, but enough times to make your team believe you can do it when it is needed the most.  

Do you believe Ryan has that ability?  Now, or as he goes through his career?  I sure hope so, but do we believe that.........really?  Time will tell, and I hope you are right.  I really do.  

Joe Ryan is a top ten asset, in my opinion, because he could be a very consistently good pitcher. We could see another five years of seasons as good or better than last year from Ryan. That said, I do view him as an excellent #4 or decent #3 pitcher in a starting rotation. If the Twins can acquire or develop a pitcher with more than two years of control remaining to slot into the #1 or #2 positions, they would  be among the team's best assets. 

2 hours ago, EGFTShaw said:

Cal was the person I was thinking of, but I think he is anomaly.

How does he compare size-wise to C4?

From Baseball Reference..... 

Brooks Lee:.  6'0" an 205 pounds 

Carlos Correa:  6'4" and 220 pounds 

Cal Ripken:.  6'4" and 200 pounds 

Alex Rodriguez:   6'3" and 230 pounds

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

From Baseball Reference..... 

Brooks Lee:.  6'0" an 205 pounds 

Carlos Correa:  6'4" and 220 pounds 

Cal Ripken:.  6'4" and 200 pounds 

Alex Rodriguez:   6'3" and 230 pounds

 

Out of curiosity, I gathered the height and weight data for all MLB shortstops who had 300 or more plate appearances (I used MLB.com and baseball-reference.com).  The average height of this sample was just a shade under 6'1" and the average weight was 195 pounds.  Brooks Lee seems to me to be an average size MLB SS.