Twins Tidbit: Do the Twins Suck at Turning Hits into Actual Runs?

This is interesting.  Glad to see that my eyes aren't deceiving me though.  It certainly feels like they should be scoring more runs.

33 minutes ago, RpR said:

Yes and luck has squat to do with it.

To say that luck has zero part in this is fool hardy.  It's not likely the primary factor, but it's most certainly not zero.  That works in both ways, both positive and negative.

28 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

Batting Buxton at the top of the order does not maximize the productivity of his at-bats, given the kind of hitter he has become. Too many solo homeruns because the bottom guys aren't on base.

OBP by order position:
1st: .336
2nd: .384 (Luis Arraez is good at what he does)
3rd: .374
4th: .335
5th: .277
6th: .263
7th: .289
8th: .328
9th: .319

The 8 and 9 hole hitters are actually doing ok at getting on base. .319 would be good for 10th in baseball in terms of team OBP (tied with Boston and San Diego). .328 is what the Dodgers have as the number 2 team in baseball.

HRs by order position:
1st: 16
2nd: 10
3rd: 14
4th: 3
5th: 8
6th: 10
7th: 5
8th: 6
9th: 2

Buxton has 18 HRs, so if he was hitting in the 3 hole all year he'd only be adding 4 homeruns to the total. It'd give a little boost, but certainly nothing drastic. The 3 hole has also had 15 fewer PAs this year than the leadoff spot. 4 hole has 23 fewer. So there really isn't a great deal of improvement that would be gained by dropping him. The 4 hole having the lowest slugging percentage on the team is certainly not ideal, though.

To me, the answers are pretty self-evident. The Twins have a paucity of team speed and also have become strikeout prone. Advancing runners is not their strength. In this alleged new era where small ball has more cachet, the Twins lack components to get it done. 

17 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I think the lack of speed may be part of the answer but I think the bigger part is the lack of a true "number 4/number five" hitter. When you look at the Twins lineup most days you either see Max Kepler, Gary Sanchez, Kyle Garlick or Geo Urshela in a run producing spot like number 4 or number 5. These 4 hitters should be batting no higher than 6 in a competitive lineup, and frankly all four of them deserve spots like 7 in the order. I think what we have is four hitters for the top of the order (three against left-handed pitching) in Arraez, Polanco, Buxton, and Correa. Then the other five hitters in the lineup are all guys you should be hitting in the back third, and we're missing those "bridge" here is between our good hitters and the average to slightly above average hitters. I had hopes for Miranda during his hot streak but I think that was premature.

To me, this is the reason to make the hard choice of demoting Larnach or Miranda so that Kirilloff can come up. He is the most likely of those three to be that solid, consistent, #5 every day hitter. Unfortunately, that's what we need to score more runs. We simply don't have that guy now and Kepler, Sanchez, Garlick and Urshela will never be that guy.

This is what I've been saying the last couple years. Kepler and Sano get so much heat because they aren't top 5 hitters, but have been forced to hit in the top 5 spots for years. If they were in the 7-9 holes people wouldn't be so upset. I think a top 5 of Buxton, Arraez, Correa, Polanco, and Kirilloff is a great start. And I think Larnach and Miranda have the potential to fill that 6 hole. Kepler, Celestino, Sanchez, Jeffers, Urshela, Garlick, Gordon types are fine in that bottom 3rd, but they need those last couple bats to become the offense they should be.

21 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I think the lack of speed may be part of the answer but I think the bigger part is the lack of a true "number 4/number five" hitter. When you look at the Twins lineup most days you either see Max Kepler, Gary Sanchez, Kyle Garlick or Geo Urshela in a run producing spot like number 4 or number 5. These 4 hitters should be batting no higher than 6 in a competitive lineup, and frankly all four of them deserve spots like 7 in the order. I think what we have is four hitters for the top of the order (three against left-handed pitching) in Arraez, Polanco, Buxton, and Correa. Then the other five hitters in the lineup are all guys you should be hitting in the back third, and we're missing those "bridge" hitters between our good hitters and the average to slightly above average hitters. I had hopes for Miranda during his hot streak but I think that was premature.

To me, this is the reason to make the hard choice of demoting Larnach or Miranda so that Kirilloff can come up. He is the most likely of those three to be that solid, consistent, #5 every day hitter. Unfortunately, that's what we need to score more runs. We simply don't have that guy now and Kepler, Sanchez, Garlick and Urshela will never be that guy.

So far in his career, Garlick is an answer to left handed pitching and should be in a run-producing spot in the lineup when he has the platoon advantage. Arraez is also a real offensive weapon only when he has the platoon advantage. Of course, LH hitters see right handers much more often than the reverse. 

I believe in Kirilloff being a middle of the order hitter, when healthy. His stats this year are going to be skewed by the dreadful start he endured, probably while battling considerable wrist pain. 

Back to the OP, I checked BBRef and there isn't a single Twin with a positive rating in base running, not one! According to my highly unofficial compilation, the Twins are -8 runs in base running, that isn't purely about stealing bases, of course. They don't have much team speed and don't have many skilled base runners. I think that is a factor in their inability to score runs commensurate with their OPS. 

18 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I couldn't agree more. I think the gap between hits and run-scoring is mostly because we don't have enough good run producers far enough down in the order. I like Kepler's overall game but he is not a consistent run producer as an offensive player. Same for Urshela and Sanchez. Jeffers is even farther down that list. They are very streaky, "hit or miss" guys. We need someone to fill the 5 hole consistently and it would help if that player hit left-handed. I don't know if Kirilloff is that guy but we do know that Max Kepler is not that guy. Kepler would be much better off hitting 7, and the catcher is better hitting 8 or 9 with Urshela in the other one of those two spots.

The really good news is that the open positions to find that number 5 or 6 hitters are LF and DH. That should be the easiest place to find guys who are consistently solid to good hitters. We just haven't found them yet. Part of the problem is using young guys like Maranda and Larnach who are still maturing. I would like to see them try Kirilloff consistently in that spot for three weeks and see how it goes. Having a consistent run producer in the number 5 hole would go a long way to both scoring more and would relieve pressure on some guys who are being asked to do more than they are really capable of doing. That lack of pressure might lead to and improvement in performance.

As I'm typing this I just learned that Kiriloff has been called up, unfortunately for Polanco going on the IL for lower back tightness. Still, let's see how he does and maybe when Polanco comes back the corresponding move involves Miranda, Larnach or Gordon, or even a relief pitcher. I hope Kirilloff starts and hits either 5 or 6 tonight, the latter because it's a left-handed starter.

Kirilloff is not starting tonight, fyi. And MLB just announced pitching staffs have to be down to 13 by Monday so that should mean Kirilloff is staying. Let's hope at least!

1 hour ago, h2oface said:

Where are you getting Arraez' OBP? His currentt OBP is .438 and leading MLB according to MLB and Baseball Reference, not .384. (Perhaps I am reading this wrong, and you are meaning all who have batted 2nd?)

Thanks to TwinsData for the post. Stats that back up what is apparent and painfully so.

The home runs also confirms that Baldelli is not utilizing the "clean up" #4 and power spot of #5 at all.

Watching Watkins coach third is as painful as watching Diaz. This is a very slow team, or at least it runs the bases like it is. Slow runners take too many chances, and Buxton doesn't run anymore for fear of getting hurt, I guess. We get trampled on the basepaths, and caught stealing about a third (7) of the few times (20) they try, and don't know how to look up the totals against us.

Those stats are the combined stats of the hitters in those lineup positions for all games. Arraez has spent the majority of his time in the 2 hole so that's why I credited him there.

17 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Could someone explain the top of the second inning yesterday?  I didn't watch the game, just saw it unfold via Gameday feed, but Kepler was on first with two out and wound up only on third when Buxton hit a double.  Byron's faster than Max, but Max should be off with contact and I have no idea why the coach wouldn't send him even if Luplow (with an average arm) was poised to make a throw.  Out at home, I can accept, but standing on third?

Nope, wrong assumption. There really was no time for Max to score on that. He wouldn’t have been out on a close play, he would have been out by a mile. I don’t remember the specifics, but I think it came off the wall hard and fielded quickly and was back in. And Max is one of the fastest players. This wasn’t a running error or a coaching error, it was just one of those it just was things.

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

And Byron took second because he figured he wouldn't draw a throw, lest Max score?  Sometimes the official scorer doesn't give the batter a double in a situation like that, but again with Byron's speed I guess you have to err on the side of giving him credit for what he ended up getting.

I don’t remember all the specifics, but kind of like the gr dbl, they got what they got and no more. Wasn’t due to runner or coaching error. 

On 6/17/2022 at 3:37 PM, chpettit19 said:

This is what I've been saying the last couple years. Kepler and Sano get so much heat because they aren't top 5 hitters, but have been forced to hit in the top 5 spots for years. If they were in the 7-9 holes people wouldn't be so upset. I think a top 5 of Buxton, Arraez, Correa, Polanco, and Kirilloff is a great start. And I think Larnach and Miranda have the potential to fill that 6 hole. Kepler, Celestino, Sanchez, Jeffers, Urshela, Garlick, Gordon types are fine in that bottom 3rd, but they need those last couple bats to become the offense they should be.

I agree with much of what you are saying. Urshela has hit in high impact spots in the order far too often. Sánchez and Kepler as well. Youngsters Larnach, Kirilloff and Miranda have the potential to be middle of the order bats for the Twins for most of the decade, but none of those guys has even a full season of plate appearances in the majors. 
 

The Twins aren’t the slugging team they were in 2019. They need to run the bases better and improve their situational hitting. There isn’t nearly enough “get ‘em over, get ‘em in” after lead off hits. I expect Kirilloff to help the offense improve and long-term I think Max Kepler is on his way out, even though he is a good player in almost all aspects of the game. 

4 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I agree with much of what you are saying. Urshela has hit in high impact spots in the order far too often. Sánchez and Kepler as well. Youngsters Larnach, Kirilloff and Miranda have the potential to be middle of the order bats for the Twins for most of the decade, but none of those guys has even a full season of plate appearances in the majors. 
 

The Twins aren’t the slugging team they were in 2019. They need to run the bases better and improve their situational hitting. There isn’t nearly enough “get ‘em over, get ‘em in” after lead off hits. I expect Kirilloff to help the offense improve and long-term I think Max Kepler is on his way out, even though he is a good player in almost all aspects of the game. 

Their base running is so bad. Some of it is a general lack of speed, but much of it is just really bad base running. It's costing them runs for sure. I'm not a proponent of "get 'em over," (only time I'm trading an out for moving a base runner is if it's scoring the runner) but they are very bad at "get 'em in" with a guy on 3rd and less than 2 outs. At least it feels that way. I haven't looked up any stats. But the strikeouts with a guy on 3rd and 1 out drive me nuts so it certainly feels like they fail in those situations a lot.

They really need Kirilloff to step up while Polanco gets healthy and Correa, Arraez, and Buxton stay healthy. They need to be able to plug those 5 in everyday and let them do their thing (even against lefty starters, IMO). Put those 5 at the top everyday and just mess with the back 4 in the order based on matchups. At least that's what I'd do.