Twins Should Sign This Under-the-Radar Free Agent

To say that the 2020 MLB offseason is moving at a snail’s pace would be a bit of an understatement. Few teams have made any moves of significance — save for the San Diego Padres — including the Minnesota Twins, whose only major league signing is relief pitcher Hansel Robles.

The majority of the hot stove — er, cold stove? — Twins-centric rumors being bandied about as of late tend to focus on the team heavily considering bringing in a shortstop via free agency or trade. However, it is widely assumed that the Twins will also be players in the starting pitching market as at least one rotation spot is up for grabs.

Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, and Michael Pineda are locks to be in the starting rotation on opening day. Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer, and perhaps Lewis Thorpe will make their fair share of spot starts. Jhoan Duran and Jordan Balazovic are waiting in the wings. Jake Odorizzi is reportedly open to a return to Minnesota.

Mike Foltynewicz was an All-Star in 2018 with the Atlanta Braves. During that magical season, he posted an ERA of 2.85, averaged 9.9 K/9, induced a ton of ground balls, and boasted an ERA- of 70, according to FanGraphs. Folty, as he is affectionately known, was waived by Atlanta after one start this past summer and went unclaimed.

How is it that one of the better pitchers in the game can fall so drastically and rapidly?

Well, for starters, Foltynewicz’s 2018 campaign was likely a bit of a fluke. A quick glance over his statistics reveals that nearly every category was a career-best by quite a wide margin, but his success can be summarized fairly succinctly.

Foltynewicz’s 2018 K/9, HR/9, and HR/FB were significantly better than his career numbers (9.93/8.59, 0.84/1.33, 9.6%/12.9%, respectively). Why? His slider was absolutely dominant.

The Twins’ pitching staff’s love affair with the slider is well-known and documented at this point (see: Wisler, Matt). Their belief that they can beef up a pitcher by taking their strongest asset and relying on it heavily has paid significant dividends for them in recent seasons. For Madeda, it was his crazy deep arsenal, for Dobnak his earth-plunging sinker.

Foltynewicz’s slider was one of the best the game had to offer in 2018 according to Baseball Savant. It struck out 106 batters — 52% of his total — and gave up only two home runs; it produced a .180 WOBA and 36.8% Whiff%. However, these numbers returned to his career norms in 2019 in addition to losing nearly six miles per hour on his fastball by 2020.

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That last part is probably the most concerning thing about Foltynewicz moving forward. Right-handed pitchers who struggle to top 90 mph have almost no role in modern MLB where gas and movement rule the land. Such a drastic drop in velocity is often a sign of injury, however, he has never been diagnosed with an injury since the 2019 season when he missed the Braves’ first 25 games with a bone spur in his right elbow. Perhaps his velocity can be attributed to reduced confidence in his stuff (i.e. “the yips”)?

Regardless, if there is one team that could help Foltynewicz return to his 2018 self it’s probably the Twins. Pitching coach Wes Johnson is one of the best in the business in unlocking a pitcher’s potential and in Foltynewicz it’s known that that potential is of All-Star caliber.

Foltynewicz could likely be had on a minor league deal similar to that of Jhoulys Chacin last Spring. Bringing on Foltynewicz at that price is the epitome of a low risk-high reward move. At worst, Foltynewicz is cut without repercussion, at best, the Twins bring on an All-Star level pitcher at minimal price.

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