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Projected Starter: Gio Urshela
Likely Backup: Luis Arraez
Depth: Tim Beckham, Daniel Robertson
Prospects: José Miranda, Austin Martin
THE GOOD
Although the inclusion of Gary Sánchez in the Josh Donaldson deal can hardly be viewed as anything more than a salary dump by New York, the late-blooming Gio Urshela is actually a fairly valuable player, with two remaining years of control and a recent track record of success.
The 2021 season doesn't qualify, as Urshela struggled to sub par offensive production (.309 wOBA), but in the two seasons prior he had slashed .310/.359/.523 while establishing himself as a high-caliber defender at third base. Urshela would've ranked fifth in fWAR among Twins position players in 2019 (3.1), and second behind Nelson Cruz in 2020 (1.6).
Rediscovering his game would turn Urshela into an asset for Minnesota. Who wouldn't want an .880 OPS with defense that merits Gold Glove consideration? (Urshela was a finalist at third base in 2020, but lost out to Isiah Kiner-Falefa.) But even if the 30-year-old can't bounce back, the Twins have plenty of options lined up behind him. In fact, this was likely a big driver in their desire to move on from Donaldson.
First and foremost, there is Luis Arraez, who is probably lined up for enough action at the position that we can consider it a timeshare. He doesn't have much arm, but Arraez looked serviceable when playing at third last season (with one glaring and extremely painful exception) and some consider it his strongest defensive position. Obviously, the Twins are motivated to get his bat in the lineup as much as possible, and this is the most natural spot to do it.
The looming elephant in the room, then, is José Miranda. Fifty-two of his defensive starts in the minors last year came at third base (compared to 30 at second and 26 at first), during a breakthrough season that ended in Triple-A and left him looking ready to make an impact in the majors. Some projection systems suggest there's no reason to wait; Steamer for example has him pegged for a .280/.331/.468 line in the big leagues this year, at age 23.
Finally, you've got Austin Martin. Minnesota's #1 prospect might not be pressing quite as hard as Miranda, having finished last year in Double-A, but he's clearly getting close and he'll need to find a defensive landing spot. Martin hasn't yet played third base professionally, but he played there plenty in college and it may be his most natural fit in the infield.
There are layers of contingency in place at third that help mitigate the relative uncertainty atop the depth chart.
THE BAD
It's difficult to count on Urshela after his performance last year, but one wonders how long the Twins will be compelled to stick with him, given he's a veteran owed $6.6 million this season. You don't just pull the plug on someone like that haphazardly, even though the team might be inclined if he's slumping while Arraez, Miranda, or Martin warrant playing time.
Of course, we haven't seen this front office too constrained my sentimentality, and Urshela could possibly offer some value in a utility role anyway, should they opt to move him off third. He made 28 starts at shortstop down the stretch last year and was passable there (leaving one to wonder if he'll be Carlos Correa's top backup instead of Jorge Polanco). He's got some experience at second and first.
Beyond Urshela on the depth chart, exciting upside must be balanced with reality. And the reality is that experience is in somewhat short supply. Arraez has made less than a third of his defensive starts in the majors at third. Miranda has played there plenty, but hasn't yet fielded an inning in the majors and was barely on the prospect radar before last year. Martin has yet to gain any professional experience at the hot corner.
Whereas Donaldson was a prototypical third baseman in many ways (when healthy) the Twins lack such a prototype at present. Urshela is a significant downgrade in terms of talent and track record.
The Twins are worse now at third base than they were before the trade, at least in the short-term – even if the move necessarily clears the way for the future.
THE BOTTOM LINE
The Twins lost a hell of a player in Donaldson, albeit an aging and undependable one. They're well equipped to move on in his absence, but the short-term picture might be a little shaky. I'd expect a pseudo-platoon of Urshela and Arraez out of the gates, with Miranda primed to take over in the near future and Martin standing ready should anything go awry.
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