Offseason Status Update: Back to Business

Nick, what do think you would guess is  a likely budget for 2022? This would change how anyone speculates/puts together a team. $130 was used previously. Is that still the line?

Good morning TDers. Great to have baseball back! I’ll bat lead off on the roster as the frenzy starts today.

First, let’s assume the Twins stick with $130MM to spend. I personally do not think we reach that this year, but let’s start there.

On the position player side there are three blanks. Two existing players will be primarily in different slots - AK will be our primary 1B and MS our primary DH.  That leaves SS, LF, and one more utility/OF4.

So, here is how we fill those three: a) sign Story for $25MM/yr for 4-5 years; b) Miranda becomes a major leaguer; and c) one of Larnach, Rooker, and Celestino breaks spring training with the big club. This adds $26.4MM in payroll leaving $21MM to spend.

On the bump, we add Big Mike (or similar) on a one year $8MM deal with a club option for year two and a healthy buyout option.  Our fifth starter spot starts with Jax (or Dobnak - the point is they both make the club). But this is more of a placeholder because we will be giving several of our young guys innings this year as the season progresses.

We now have $12MM left to spend on two RP spots. In the modern game, it’s so much more about the pen - thus, I’d spend the $, but look for at least one two/three year deal as quality in ‘23-‘24 is going to be more important.

If for some reason by the trade deadline we are competitive, keep the lineup intact. If not, based on how the younger players are developing, you can move JD, MK, and MP to save cash to reinvest in ‘23.

Nick, you seem to be caught up in the euphoria of the agreement.:

http://From the buzz I'm hearing, it sounds like the Twins will be among the teams to strike early with a big move – maybe even by the time you're reading this on Friday morning.

http://At the end of January, I laid out three top post-lockout priorities for the Twins: trade for starting pitcher, sign a free agent starting pitcher, and figure out the plan at shortstop. I wouldn't be at all surprised if it plays out in that exact order, and all three are done by Sunday.

Wow!  I hope you're right but when has this FO(or past ones) ever jumped into the fray with the big boys?  We haven't seen a big move, either by trade or FA, since the Falvine boys took over 5+ years ago,  Their only "big move" in either category came with the JD signing, at the tail end of the preseason when every other team passed on him.  So why would you expect their MO to change now that lockout is over?  Do you think there's any more pressure from ownership to win this year after they passed on the pre-lockout agreement?  If I were a betting man I would wager maybe one middlin' FA signing(Pineda?) , a  C- level SS addition, and maybe a bullpen filler.

But if I, too, got caught up in the moment:  here is my wish list(in order of positive impact on returning the team to contention:

1. Sign Carlos Rodon!

2. Trade for Gray/Castillo from Reds or Montas from A's.

3. Sign one of Greinke, Pineda, Duffy or Kikuchi.

4. Sign McHugh for the pen

5.  Trade for SS - Paul DeJong, Elvis Andrus, Kiner-Falefa, or Nick Ahmed

And if there was any money left over(and there should be with $50MM available), take a flyer on Kevin Gausman even if he doesn't play in 2022.  This type of move worked well with Pineda.  Anyway, let's talk again Monday and see what this FO did accomplish.

I'm glad the Twins can take advantage of the extra $$$ before hitting the luxury tax threshold. Oh wait, all that fuss really only impacted a small hand full of teams.

Oops!  Meant Tyler Glasnow on the Rays, not Kevin Gausman.  Rumors has him on trade block because of injury.

I see the signing has begun (Cards with a RHP).....much slower than I anticipated.  I kind of thought teams would have been speaking to each other during the lockout -and we might already have a trade in place for a pitcher.  Hopefully some talks took place over the past 99 days.

Our biggest hole is SP, so I'll start there #1 move trade for Montas (A's) and then extend him, #2 trade for Bassit (A's) and then extend him or sign Rodon or trade for Odo.

#3 sign Archer, after not pitching for 2yrs. he had a rough 1st outing but after that he was dominate his 1st 3 innings He'd fit perfectly in the proposed opener scenario. He's a great mentor. Under Wes Johnson he can perfect even more his fastball, slider & change up. I'm sure he could be gotten w/ a low salary/ incentive contract.  High reward low risk.

#4 obtain a viable SS. IDC if we sign Story which is my 1st choice or trade for one or resign Simmons. But especially with our young rotation we need a glove primarily at SS.   #5 bring in a true CF to back up Buxton.

#6 get a high level BP arm maybe Tepera or Richard Rodriguez. This is optional because Alcala could be used there or he could be used as an opener/ long relief

Update - Giants sign Rodon for 2yr/$44.  Absolutely reasonable for Twins.  This FO is a disgrace!!

Picturing the Twins getting shut-out in any further free agent pickings. Sad, sad.

They still need to fill roster spots. Currently in St. Paul are BECKHAM, who I believe the Twins DID sign as their shortstop candidate. 

Pitchers Coulombe, Megill, Smeltzer, Faria and Rodriguez could all be considered for advancement to the Twins, who currently have two roster spots and two more once Maeda (being paid decent bucks for 2022_ and Enlow go on the injured list.

Too many of the 40-man NEED to start in the minors. Sadly see Miranda going, unless the Twins can flip out Sano. Larnach, Lewis, Celestino, Rortvedt all go to St. Paul. Rooker probably stays.

Jax, Garza, Thorpe, Moran, Strotman could all break camp. WInder, Balazovic, Duran, Sands...and Stashak and Vallimont are all going to AA or AAA.

The Twins will be under budget come the end of spring training - BIGTIME!

2 hours ago, Rosterman said:

The Twins will be under budget come the end of spring training

Agree with Rosterman and Mike8791....not expecting major FA agent signings, nor significant SP trade. Pineda-level guy or 2, a flyer on a BP arm, hope Beckham holds fort at SS, and start running the young guys through the rotation. It's a year to see what they have in the SP pipeline.

The current team will struggle to avoid 100 losses. I'm hoping Falvey noticed that it is ok to sign and trade now. I will remain hopeful.

If this is the team the Twins have going into the regular season Falvine and Levine should be fired. 

The Twins did resign Minaya today to a minor league deal.  So we have that to talk about.

but I will say we trade for Bassit and extend him.  And sign Pineda at SS we signed several options so look for some other low level signing to compete for SS.  And sign an inexpensive OF to compete for LF with other in house options.

Here is what I hope for and think is realistic for FA signings.  I assume these guys would be willing to play in MN:

- Trevor Story.  ESPN has predicted he will sign with the Twins.  Looking at $25 mil per year.  I suspect a contract 3 years or less or one with a player opt out.

- Kikuchi.  No sure what he yearly value is, but I suspect a multi year contract.  He is no ace by any means, but he would be a left handed starter.  At a minimum he would be an innings eater.  At best, he is a solid #3.

- one year contract for a bounce back candidate.  I am thinking Archer or Boyd.

- for relief pitching, I don’t think this FO officer will make any sort of splash or even offer a multi year contract.  
 

- 4th outfielder. Herrera makes a lot of sense.  He will play a lot as the twins rotate starters through the DH spot.  I am expect Kirloff to start out in LF.  

- everyday LF if Kiriloff does not start out in LF. I am thinking Dickerson,  Pham or Peterson.  For each I am thinking 1 year 7-10 mil.

Chris Bassitt is 33 years old with ZIPS WAR projections of 2.2, 1.8 and 1.6 the next three years. How long do we want to extend him? How much should we pay to extend to those projections or give up for the 2.2 next year?

Kikuchi’s projections are similar.

I like Kikuichi just because I still believe it is good to have a lefty starter to change up the rotation. Agree he is a 3 at best.

Big Mike seems logical, and he has apparently enjoyed pitching here.

No other pitchers remaining really move the needle, and if we are going that route we might as well see what the crop of younger pitchers in hand can offer.

The move I really want is to swap a bat or bats to the Marlins for Meyer.  He seems to have potential top of the rotation stuff, and he pitched at the U.

Very wary of trading for the older arms from the A's, there is a reason they are recycling their talent at this point.