Offseason Status Update: Enter Carlos Correa

When last we checked in with a status update, mum was the word. Despite some hiccups, Carlos Correa appeared destined to sign with the Mets, and it was unclear how the Twins could still find a way to make a splash.

Ten days later, the narrative has been flipped upside down. They found a way.

Twins Sign Correa to Franchise-Record Free Agent Deal

As negotiations with New York continued to stall, Scott Boras turned his attention back to Minnesota, and the Twins were able to offer a deal that got it done, locking up Correa throughout his prime.

The particulars of the contract are quite favorable to the Twins, protecting against the perceived breakdown risks that scrapped his agreements with San Francisco and New York. Correa gets six years and $200 million guaranteed – shattering Josh Donaldson's precedent ($92M) for largest free-agent commitment in Twins history – with a series of team options that can vest via playing time. The deal could max out at 10 years and $270 million.

Interestingly, Correa's salaries decrease dramatically in the latter years, which almost seems to reflect a shared understanding that he'll likely cease to be a major factor in his late 30s. It's a high-risk move on its face. 

Following the signing, I shared some thoughts about the implications of Correa's ankle issue and more recently, Lucas Seehafer wrote a great piece on the underlying divide within the orthopedic community that Boras lamented during his client's introductory presser. I highly recommend it for insight on the situation.

The bottom line is that any such concerns are hopefully a long way from coming into play. Correa was very healthy last year and there's little reason to expect anything else in 2023. His addition to a roster that was looking needy in his absence and solidifies the Twins as verified contenders in the AL Central, now and going forward.

Twins and Paddack Agree to 3-Year Contract

With an eye on the "going forward" view, Minnesota struck a contract extension with right-hander Chris Paddack – another Boras client – to lock him up through 2025 (a move that was first reported here at Twins Daily!).

It's a fairly minor move with some significant upside. The Twins were already set to pay Paddack around $2.5 million this year as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery, so now they're buying into a little upside on the other end if things go well. 

The righty will again be inexpensive in 2024 ($2.5M), when he should be back to full strength, and the Twins are also buying out his first year of free agency at a mere $7.5M. Even if Paddack can't return to form after a second elbow reconstruction, the team risk here is nominal.

Club and Arraez Unable to Agree on Arbitration Terms

Prior to last Friday's deadline, the Twins agreed to terms with Paddack and all of their other arbitration-eligible players, finalizing their 2023 salary figures. That is, all except for Luis Arraez. 

The two sides are said to be divided by more than a million dollars, with Arraez filing at $6.1 million and the Twins countering at $5 million. By the standard of arbitration exchanges, that is a sizable chasm.

I think this situation speaks to a bigger issue in play with Arraez, which has rippling effects. There is SO MUCH room for disagreement in his valuation. I saw it in the comments when recently ranking him as the organization's 10th-most valuable player asset. I see it in everyday conversations with fans. And we may be seeing it play out in protracted trade talks with the Marlins, which have been the subject of rumors dating back many weeks.

On the one hand, Arraez is a clear star property. He's beloved by the fanbase, still only 25 and coming off a breakthrough year that brought an All-Star nod, batting title, and Silver Slugger award. On the other hand, he's already slid to the bottom of the defensive spectrum, with balky knees and a 3-WAR ceiling (i.e. good, not great).

The differing opinions on Arraez factor into more than a looming case before the arbitration panel.

Twins and Marlins Said to Be Continuing Trade Discussions

It's no secret that Miami, loaded in the rotation after signing Johnny Cueto, is open for business on their starting pitchers, with Pablo Lopez topping the list of available names. It's also no secret the Twins could use one more surefire option in their starting mix.

So it comes as no surprise the Marlins, still seeking some added offensive punch, have been in contact with the Twins ... which also hasn't been much of a secret. The two sides were linked here by Ted Schwerzler back in December and more recently by Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman mentions Max Kepler and Arraez as names that have come up, but adds the Twins aren't interested in moving Arraez. (Aren't they, though?)

Lopez is moderately interesting. He's a good-not-great arm befitting the middle of the rotation, which I suppose would make him a fair swap for Arraez. Except it sounds like if any deal were to materialize, it'd be much more complex than a 1-to-1 exchange.

As JD Cameron notes, there are other potential trade partners still out there offering higher-upside opportunities, though the cost to acquire such coveted talent will be exorbitant.

Roster & Payroll Projection v. 6

The arbitration agreements reached last week give us more clarity on the payroll for 2023. We're now only guessing on Arraez, and for the time being I'm going with the team-submitted figure out $5 million as that seems more likely. 

With Correa on board at $36 million for this year ($32M salary and half of an $8M signing bonus), the Twins have suddenly shot up near $150 million in total payroll. I'm keeping Kyle Garlick in as the fourth outfielder for now, but he was DFA'ed to make room for Correa on the 40-man, and could be lost on waivers. 

Either way, that looks like the clearest spot the Twins need to address before Opening Day: a righty-swinging outfielder. The team is said to be "tire-kicking" on Adam Duvall (per Darren Wolfson) as he remains one of the few intriguing free agent options suited for the role.