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On Saturday, the Minnesota Vikings fell behind the Indianapolis Colts, 33-0 at halftime. The team was frankly very bad in all aspects of the game. The defense bent and broke. Special teams allowed a blocked punt and a few long returns. The offense didn't get much going at all, and when they did, it ended in either a fumble, or a wide receiver just stopping a route that led to an interception. It was really, really bad.
Twins fans, does this sound familiar? The first half of the Twins offseason has not been good for the Twins or its fans. Let me count the ways:
- Carlos Correa and Scott Boras did a great job of maximizing his value over the course of the offseason. The Twins felt really good about their chances of signing the All Star shortstop. Last Monday, there were reports that he was starting to tell people he was heading to Minnesota. Then on Tuesday, the Giants offered 13 years and $350 million, and he signed. We can't know everything that went on behind the scenes, of course, but no question the front office had to be disappointed. Many fans are still going through the coping process.
- Before Correa signed, one fallback plan, Xander Bogaerts, signed with the Padres for 11 years and $180 million. That came a few days after Trea Turner signed an 11 year, $300 million deal. Those contracts, of course, bumped out the value of a Correa contract.
- It also bumped up the value of the Twins remaining fallback option for an impact shortstop. While the Twins had several conversations over the past week with Dansby Swanson, the former Vanderbilt Commodore and Atlanta Braves star, he ultimately signed this weekend with the Chicago Cubs.
- While Kyle Farmer is a solid MLB player and shortstop, he probably won't set a lot of tickets.
- Obviously the Twins weren't going to be involved in negotiations with free agent starting pitchers Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Adam Wainwright, but for whatever reason, they were involved in negotiations with Carlos Rodon and his agent, Scott Boras. As we know, Boras used the contracts of those big deals, specifically the deGrom deal, to request seven years and up to $30 million. While the Twins and Cardinals stayed involved in discussions, the lefty signed with the Yankees for six years and $162 million.
- And again, while those conversations were happening, the Twins saw the likes of Chris Bassitt signed with the Blue Jays (3 years, $63 million). Others who signed that would have fit the Twins goal of acquiring pitchers that are at least as good as Sonny Gray: Jameson Taillon (Cubs, 4 years, $68 million), Taijuan Walker (Phillies, 4 years, $72 million), Jose Quintana (Mets, 2 years, $26 million), Andrew Heaney (Rangers, 2 years, $25 million), Sean Manaea (Giants, 2 years, $25 million), Zach Eflin (Rays, 3 years, $40 million), Ross Stripling (Giants, 2 years, $24 million),
- At this time, there is literally one remaining free agent starting pitcher that could be argued would be the Twins top starter. That's Nathan Eovaldi, who throws gas and can be very good, but he hasn't been a beacon of health himself.
- And to make matters worse for Twins fans, reports have come out over the past couple of weeks that the Twins would certainly consider trading Luis Arraez to acquire pitching. No matter how good the pitcher the Twins got, losing Arraez would be painful for a lot of fan.
- Another fan favorite, at times, has been Max Kepler, and his name has bounced around in trade rumors. As with Arraez, there may be good reason to look to deal Kepler, but many fans will be greatly disappointed.
- On Friday afternoon, it was announced that the Twins had a deal with outfielder Joey Gallo for one year and $11 million. As @Nick Nelson noted this weekend, Gallo hit Rock Bottom in 2022 (I know, I know... at least he made contact! <rimshot>) when he hit just .160 between the Yankees and Dodgers. However, in 2021, between the Rangers and Yankees, he hit .199/.351/.458 (.808) with 38 home runs, and that's even after he really struggled over the final two months if New York. Gallo was an All Star in 2019 and 2021. He won Gold Glove Awards in 2020 and 2021. He's one year removed from a very nice season. However, because of a terrible 2022, the low batting average and the massive strikeout count, it isn't a signing that makes many Twins fans happy.
- And, in an article about Twins options following Correa's signing with the Giants. The Athletic's Dan Hayes mentioned several options for how the Twins offseason could go. One of the ideas was to take a step back by trading some veterans for prospects, essentially throwing the towel on the 2023 season, and hoping to compete again in 2024. While it is unlikely, it certainly isn't something any Twins fan wants to hear.
To be fair, the Twins did get their top choice at catcher when Christian Vazquez signed last week to team with Ryan Jeffers. They didn't lose anyone in the MLB Rule 5 draft. They moved from #13 to #5 in the 2023 draft thanks to MLB's first draft lottery.
Back to the Vikings... Down 33-0 coming into the second half, the team was incredible and almost inexplicably mounted the biggest comeback in NFL history and won 39-36 in overtime. It was a second Minneapolis Miracle. Kirk Cousins use all of his weapons (Justin Jefferson, KJ Osborn, Adam Thielen, TJ Hockenson, Dalvin Cook) to throw for over 400 yards. The defense actually got aggressive and got pressure on Matt Ryan. They also stopped the run. And sure, a little luck was involved, but that's OK. Huge win, and it clinched the NFC North division title.
The Twins offseason is just a little over two months in, and spring training will start in about two more months (and the WBC, if you're into that). This is about halftime of baseball's offseason. Right now, the Twins offseason has been rough. 33-0 rough? I would say more like 31-7 rough, but that's probably just semantics. It has not been good for Twins fans. And as @Melissa Berman wrote last week, it might just be difficult to get fans back into the seats at Target Field if this continues.
However, since Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have been in charge of the Twins Baseball Operations group, halftime is often when they really start moving and shaking. We have seen them make deals in late January, throughout February, and even after spring training has started. Whatever we have guessed their budget might be (and this year, it should be somewhere between about $140-$155 million), they have managed to hit that number.
They are smart guys. Certainly they had contingency plans for if Carlos Correa signed elsewhere. And certainly Plan B options have been lost too. However, there is time, so don't give up completely on the offseason.
Aside from Eovaldi, free agency will likely not be the means to quality acquisition. Instead of just giving up money for players to sign, they will now have to trade players to acquire players. Can they trade for a quality starting pitcher, like Pablo Reyes from the Marlins, or one of the Brewers aces? Speaking of the Brewers, could Willy Adames be available? It's really hard to know which players are available, or how that will change over the course of the coming month or two. (For more on Willy Adames, Corbin Burnes, Christian Yelich, Brandon Woodruff, Gus Varland, William Contreras, and the Brewers, check out Brewer Fanatic.)
The Minnesota Twins will need another Minnesota Miracle to turn around what has been a rough offseason so far for the team. In a market that includes teams from all four major professional sports leagues, a soccer team, a Big 10 school (U of Minnesota) and a second Division I college in St. Thomas, dollars can only be spent in so many places. And with half of the market or more unable to watch the Twins on TV, they need to find ways to compete.
Ultimately, it will be Winning that brings fans to the stadium. That is always the case. Sure, when a player of the caliber of Carlos Correa signs, some season tickets are sold, but sustained winning is what keeps fans coming back. Whether fans are excited about the offseason, what matters most is what happens on the field in the season.
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