Twins Excited About Day 1 Picks, Chase Petty and Noah Miller

Great writing, Seth.  Was really down on the draft yesterday morning, expecting the Twins to take another big bat who can’t play defense.

After reading this and feeling the excitement the Twins appear to have, gotta be pumped.  Now let’s hope that one, heck both, are lottery tickets who break in when they are 21 or 22.  Hopefully they can get both signed for near slot.

Miller was projected to go later in the second round, so my guess is that he is going to sign for second round money rather than sandwich pick slot money. I hope the Twins draft a few more high school players over their next four or five selections. Time to reseed the system. This time next year, the Twins will have earlier selections in each round (maybe they will be able to select a top of the rotation college starter in the first round next year). 

I was was hoping for a fast moving College pitcher but, getting Petty at 26 who Compares to Green who was taken at the very top of the draft seems like a good get. I do have my concerns about arm issues with hard throwing High Schoolers but, I am glad they went with a high upside pitcher instead of a bat as KC, Clevelend and Detroit all went with high upside arms as well.  It looks like the AL central is in an arms race this year.  Hopefully Petty stays healthy.   He has the fastball to make it so just needs to work on the secondary's and control.  Maybe he will be a faster mover than I think he will be.

As usual I didn't care for the perceived reach on the supplemental pick.  After Jeffers and Steer I do trust this FO with bat evals for these reach picks but I wish they could find guys they like that can run better. Average runner as Shortstop screams 3rd or second base in the majors.  The hit tool is the most important thing and he appears to have a good one I just wish he had better up the middle projection.  He kind of seems Dozier like to me.  He can play short but not likely at good enough level to not be a liability there as he grows.

We'll see how things turn out but I am pleased that no Left field\1st Basemen were taken early.  Still hoping for College arms in the second round.

29 minutes ago, Dman said:

I was was hoping for a fast moving College pitcher but, getting Petty at 26 who Compares to Green who was taken at the very top of the draft seems like a good get. I do have my concerns about arm issues with hard throwing High Schoolers but, I am glad they went with a high upside pitcher instead of a bat as KC, Clevelend and Detroit all went with high upside arms as well.  It looks like the AL central is in an arms race this year.  Hopefully Petty stays healthy.   He has the fastball to make it so just needs to work on the secondary's and control.  Maybe he will be a faster mover than I think he will be.

As usual I didn't care for the perceived reach on the supplemental pick.  After Jeffers and Steer I do trust this FO with bat evals for these reach picks but I wish they could find guys they like that can run better. Average runner as Shortstop screams 3 or second base in the majors.  The hit tool is the most important thing and he appears to have a good one I just wish he had better up the middle projection.  He kind of seems Dozier like to me.  He can play short but not likely at good enough level to not be a liability there as he grows.

We'll see how things turn out but I am pleased that no Left field\1st Basemen were taken early.  Still hoping for College arms in the second round.

Question, Dman.  Where did you get that he doesn't run well?  He looks to be athletic and the little I have seen is that he is a good runner, not blazing speed, but certainly not slow.  

I'm very happy for the 2 young high school players the Twins selected.  They will become instant millionaires in signing bonuses for playing high school baseball.  Plus the odds are they may never make it to the majors.  That in reality is what happens to most high school players drafted.  Twins issue same old, " we are excited about our picks".   I sure hope they are very successful but reality tells me it's not likely.

40 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

My guess is they'll go heavy on college pitchers the rest of the way... it's a strategy that appears to be working. Ober, Jax, Barnes, Winder, Sands, Canterino... in reality that's the Cleveland thing too, to select college pitchers. Obviously we shall see. But I would think college pitchers at this point, unless they can make deals with high school players above slot. 

 

I'd like to see the Twins pick Seth Halverson again. MN kid. Hits high 90's. Picked him out of high school, and he went to Missouri but with Mizzou's NCAA troubles he'll either go pro or transfer if he doesn't get drafted again. 

1 hour ago, roger said:

Question, Dman.  Where did you get that he doesn't run well?  He looks to be athletic and the little I have seen is that he is a good runner, not blazing speed, but certainly not slow.  

It is really just in the scouting grades but when they give shortstops 50 run grades as high schoolers very few stay at short. They get bigger and slightly slower and usually end up at 2nd.  Go to MLB.com and look at Spencer Steers bio.  They have him as a 50 runner and at 2nd base not short.  I would say the odds of Miller staying at short are very, very slim IMO.

The best bet on a take that proves to be right is to be critical of the picks. Players picked 26th and 36th rarely have significant major league careers. The path to the majors is too long and can easily be derailed by injury. The best bet is to take the failed pick side.

I haven’t watched either of these guys play but have these two thoughts.

• It might be the right time to go with the raw arm talent over any Rapsado data. Spider tack isn’t going to help anyone hit 102.
• There is a lot of flexibility in picking a switch hitting high school shortstop. There are so many paths from there to develop into a role on a major league team.

29 minutes ago, Dman said:

It is really just in the scouting grades but when they give shortstops 50 run grades as high schoolers very few stay at short. They get bigger and slightly slower and usually end up at 2nd.  Go to MLB.com and look at Spencer Steers bio.  They have him as a 50 runner and at 2nd base not short.  I would say the odds of Miller staying at short are very, very slim IMO.

That isn't what the Twins seem to be saying.  If you look at his build, he doesn't seem like the type who is going to bulk up so much it will slow him down.  The little I have seen, yes very little, he looks athletic.  

With the Twins saying all positive things about his athleticism, etc., it is surprising to me how a few small comments on this and other sites already have him bulking up, being slow and moving off short.  That isn't what I have seen.  Will also question scouting grades for a lot of kids like him.  How many scouts have actually seen him play?  Plus, in spring high school ball in Wisconsin, like Minnesota, no one is running real fast in April.

I feel like I'm watching a teaser trailer for a new Star Wars movie. Getting psyched about triple-digit fastballs the same way I get excited about John Williams music and five seconds of Millennium Falcon footage, but ultimately I have no more idea whether it will amount to anything good or not than I did yesterday morning.

If Twins excited, I am excited. I know little about draft prospects. Would expect new CBA will limit control of players, may push teams to limit HS players drafted. This year first round was basically 50/50 college/HS players. 

17 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

Sean Johnson acknowledged that he's not a burner, but they think he can stick at shortstop. JJ Hardy was slow. Andrelton Simmons isn't fast. That said, 1.) a scouting director on the night of a pick should tout all that a player can do, his skill set. That doesn't mean they don't see where work needs to be done, but that's true of any 18-year-old coming into pro ball. The goal is to find guys who can stick at shortstop while they realize that very few do. But as he said, they think he will have enough bat that even if he moves off of shortstop, he will be a positive bat. And, like all years, draft lots of shortstops and center fielders, athletes, and you can move them around and they could be plus at another position.

Thanks for the response, Seth.  I don't always write that well, Seth, and often find it difficult to clearly say what I am thinking.  I guess my point when I made that comment dealt with the fact that what people are writing today has meaning. 

Yes, the Twins have said he isn't a burner.  That doesn't mean he is slow or doesn't run well, it means he doesn't have plus speed.  Yet, somehow I have seen it written several times here and elsewhere that he probably won't stick at short because of his lack of speed.  Does that mean that the writer is saying he is slow?  I don't know, but that is how I read it.  Thus, my point that by one making that statement, it gets picked up elsewhere and before we know it the consensus is that he is slow and won't be able to stick at short.  He may never reach AA or he may become an All-Star.  Which happens remains to be seen and is up to him.

52 minutes ago, roger said:

That isn't what the Twins seem to be saying.  If you look at his build, he doesn't seem like the type who is going to bulk up so much it will slow him down.  The little I have seen, yes very little, he looks athletic.  

With the Twins saying all positive things about his athleticism, etc., it is surprising to me how a few small comments on this and other sites already have him bulking up, being slow and moving off short.  That isn't what I have seen.  Will also question scouting grades for a lot of kids like him.  How many scouts have actually seen him play?  Plus, in spring high school ball in Wisconsin, like Minnesota, no one is running real fast in April.

Well below is what Johnson had to say as reported in the Athletic and below that Law gives him a 50/50 chance to stay at short not exactly a ringing endorsement.  He isn't slow he runs average but shortstops usually are above average runners just like center fielders. My view is pessimistic because you don't see many 50\Average running shortstops.  His actions look good apparently which gives him a chance but, just looking at past profiles the odds are against him.

"We think he’ll have power from both sides (of the plate),” Johnson said. “He’s extremely instinctive as a defender. He’s not the fastest shortstop in the world, but we think he has a chance to stay there for a long time. Great hands. Great feet. Great (internal) clock. Does all the things you want to see. He’s just super advanced. More advanced than a lot of college guys you go see.”

Law agrees with much of that assessment, reporting that Miller has “excellent instincts and at least an even chance to stay at shortstop.”

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

The best bet on a take that proves to be right is to be critical of the picks. Players picked 26th and 36th rarely have significant major league careers. The path to the majors is too long and can easily be derailed by injury. The best bet is to take the failed pick side.

I haven’t watched either of these guys play but have these two thoughts.

• It might be the right time to go with the raw arm talent over any Rapsado data. Spider tack isn’t going to help anyone hit 102.
• There is a lot of flexibility in picking a switch hitting high school shortstop. There are so many paths from there to develop into a role on a major league team.

Excellent points, Jorgenswest. ALL High School draft picks are crap shoots, but picking kids with great natural talent and flexibility make for good choices. I like Petty's effortless motion. Always have to hold breath on hard throwers' arm issues, but he looks good. Cue Tom Petty's 'The Waiting'

I always figure that Twins high draft picks will make it to the majors...  with Detroit. 

Very surprised by both of these picks. But surprised pleasantly so.

My gut told me the first selection would be a college pitcher....which I would have been OK with...or a college bat. With the crapshoot that is the ML draft, you just don't know what you're going to be able to grab in the late 20's. Think Levi Michael for example. I LOVE the pick of Petty as a 6' 2" HS kid who almost certainly isn't done growing and filling out yet but who already throws 100MPH and has at least one additional quality offering with potential. Honestly, I'm surprised he lasted that late. His ceiling alone should have had him gone 5-10 spots earlier. As compared earlier, think of Green picked 2nd or 3rd just a few years ago with similar velocity and projectability. 

I am not going to pretend to know anything about Noah Miller at this point except for the one scouting scorecard I saw and what Johnson has to say about him. Now I'm confused by the scorecard I saw because the numbers don't equate to what I hear Johnson saying. Scorecard says a defense first SS with a quality arm...which I'm OK with but not this high...with a 60 for fielding and a 55 for arm. No problem! He's got a 50 for speed again no problem. He doesn't have to be a basestealing wizard or speed demon to still be athletic and play a good SS. But the 45 hit and 40 power seems to fly in the face of the Twins' opinion.

But with so many kids missing seasons due to covid, with travel and scouting time interrupted, with kids missing camps and not being able to play on travel teams, etcm I guess I'm going to side with the team/scouts that have been watching the kid closely for the longest period of time. Further more I think there is a real or imagined sort of prejudice against kids from the Midwest, northern states and Canada often because they simply don't have some of the same year round opportunities that others have.

So I love the Petty choice and I'm super intrigued by a HS defensive playing SS that the Twins think has real hitting potential.