Finding a No. 1 Starter: A Game of Musical Chairs

Burnes or bust. It’s a no brainer for the Twins to target an arm like this and even go “all in” with an overpay. The risk is an injury that is long term for a lot of capital. The reward is a chance to compete with anyone’s top starter. 

The only off limits prospects in my mind are Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis. 

Some other notable MLB players that could be included are Sonny Gray and/or Max Kepler. 

If we don’t go after Burnes another large market team like the Yankees will. Burnes is worth the risk and we have enough depth in our system from the minors to majors to trade some key prospects for a true ace.

Here we go again with another article suggesting they trade most of their best prospects for that elusive ACE.  Bah Humbug!

The Twins have built a very deep starting rotation of quality starters with several top young prospects very close.  Plus, they should have Paddack coming back late this year.  If their #2-#5 match up favorably with the oppositions #2-#5, they are gonna win a lot of series.  I maintain their #2-#5 will be equal to or better than most teams, including those in the playoffs.  

1 hour ago, Hans Birkeland said:

The Twins have a lot of pretty good starters, but a true No. 1 remains the missing piece in their championship puzzle. What's the most realistic method for acquiring one?

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Image courtesy of Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

With Jordan Balazovic sliding down the prospect rankings due to a tough 2022 season (and now a tough start to this 2023 spring), it appears that the number of organizational Twins pitchers who could reasonably project to being a top-tier MLB starting pitcher is down to two in Marco Raya and Connor Prielipp. Both haven’t pitched a lot due to injury, with Prielipp in particular only logging seven college starts since 2019. Raya has a small build with electric stuff, so paired with his injury history, his ability to hold up for twenty-five starts is a serious question.

Teams like to have a number one starter, or “ace,” but the sad truth is that there aren’t enough to go around among the 30 teams. The Twins had a taste with Kenta Maeda’s 2020 season, and arguably Phil Hughes in 2014, but otherwise have been searching since Johan Santana left in 2008. 

The 2023 rotation may be the deepest the team has featured since then, but it clearly lacks a top-end guy to lead the group. By my count, there are 24 starters who could currently be described as an ace or No. 1. Here they are with projected fWAR for 2023 along with how they were acquired:

Drafted or signed as international free agent:

• Shohei Ohtani (4.3)
• Shane Bieber (4.2)
• Triston McKenzie (3.3)
• Corbin Burnes (5.4)
• Brandon Woodruff (4.2)
• Alek Manoah (3.3)
• Julio Urias (4.0)
• Walker Buehler (2.9*)
• Logan Webb (3.7)
• Aaron Nola (5.0)
• Shane McClanahan (3.5)

Trade:

• Luis Castillo (3.9)
• Dylan Cease (3.7)
• Joe Musgrove (3.6)
• Zac Gallen (2.9)
• Max Fried (4.0)
• Sandy Alcantara (3.8)

Free agency:

• Jacob deGrom (5.7)
• Carlos Rodon (5.0)
• Gerrit Cole (4.9)
• Kevin Gausman (3.8)
• Justin Verlander (4.0)
• Max Scherzer (4.3)
• Zack Wheeler (4.7)

That’s 24 guys for 30 teams. Seven teams – the Brewers, Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies, Blue Jays, Guardians and Mets – have two each, meaning only 10 aces remain among the other 24 teams. Most were signed or drafted, but outside of Castillo who was acquired at his peak, the trades were consummated with the future ace having had little or no major league success.

Here’s why that might be the best avenue for the Twins:

For starters, the draft and development approach hasn’t worked out especially well. Trading for established starters (Gray, Mahle, Maeda) has hurt the farm system, and has given the team a bevy of good, but not great, starting pitchers. All three of those trades were bold, but perhaps not bold enough.

What the Twins do have, is a glut of high-minors bats who could help a team as soon as this year in Austin Martin, Matt Wallner, Royce Lewis, Ed Julien and Brooks Lee. All are decent-to-great prospects without an obvious role on the Twins, at least this year and the next. The Twins certainly hope with their newfound depth they can avoid asking all five to contribute in Minneapolis this year, meaning the team could take the reasonable gamble of dangling one or two from that player crop to seek out some high upside young pitching. It’s time for a challenge trade.

The Marlins come to mind as a trade partner, as per usual. I would imagine top 10 global prospect Eury Perez would not be available, but the Fish may still listen on Edward Cabrera if one of the higher-end Twins is involved. He was once a top-50 global prospect who posted a 3.01 ERA in 14 starts last year in his age 23 season with potentially four plus pitches. He does have a lengthy injury history, however, missing time each of the last six years.

A truly bold move would be to trade Lewis for Cabrera’s teammate, Max Meyer, another former top prospect recovering from Tommy John surgery this year. Meyer was the third overall pick in the 2020 draft, and is also a Minnesotan and a Gopher if that matters to you. He has a devastating slider and a fastball with some weird gyro movement a la Josh Hader. Like Lewis, he’s a difference maker if he bounces back from injury.

On the other hand, betting on injured players hasn’t gone well for the Twins in recent memory. Let’s try some other names.

Tanner Houck is a little more established, although it isn’t clear the Red Sox plan to use him as a starter, despite him being effective in that role, striking out 10.7 batters per nine innings with a 3.20 ERA. A former first-round pick, Houck throws a good slider (5.9 runs above average) breaking away from righties, and a quality sinker (5.3 runs above average) that breaks away from lefties. If I’m Houck, I want to go somewhere where I can start, even if it sounds like he is interested in an extension with Boston. Nevertheless, Boston could use lineup depth with upside.

Mitch Keller of the Pirates took a big leap forward this past year after appearing to stall his first few years in the league, posting a sub-four ERA in 29 starts. He’s a former top prospect and had success converting to a sinker-slider pitcher last year. It’s notable that Pittsburgh also witnessed Cole and Musgrove’s careers being put in neutral before blossoming elsewhere, but its impossible to say whether Keller has another gear (or quality third offering) in him, or if he would be the Twins seventh number two/three starter. 

Going for Burnes either now or at the deadline wouldn’t be the worst idea, and would make the Twins a legitimate threat in the AL. However, it might cost them three of the five position players mentioned, in addition to someone on the major-league squad like Bailey Ober, and/or 2022 breakout prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez. Trading for someone less fully formed would cost a lot less of the team’s future, and could bring in someone to win that game of pitching-ace musical chairs for a longer period. It remains a dicey proposition, though. 

Who would you target? Or, do you hold out hope that one of the Twins’ current crop can take the leap to ace-dom?

 

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33 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Bad teams aren't trading controllable great pitchers. Good teams do.... If the Brewers struggle, I expect a deadline deal, but I don't know what the twins should do. 

That Zac Gallen trade was awful, and when made I wished the Twins had. 

I agree, there are few ace types. 

Burnes would be a good pick-up! Would anchor the Staff.

He has ‘24 left under control. Extend him 2 years right away for around $30M/yr……extend Lopez this year, if he’s solid, for 2 more years. Extend Mahle if he throws well for 3 years.

Burnes - $30M ……Mahle - $21M……Lopez - $20M………Varland & Paddack & Headrick & SWR & etc. from the Farm. We’d be set, on paper, through ‘26!

Already spending $16M between Mahle & Lopez. We get back $21 M between Gray & Maeda leaving………Taylor, Kepler, Polanco, Solano, & Gallo will probably all be gone after ‘23 getting us back $36M……..that’s $73M to cover the 3 pitchers above!

Trade Ober - Walner - Martin at the Break or shortly after, for Burnes.

The problem with trading for a “#1/Ace” starter is that aside from a small number of names (probably less than ten - Johan Santana used to be one of those), you don’t really know what is going to happen and you wind up trading for the player that they were the year before . . . for another team.  Pitchers are way too unpredictable and variable to bank on one name to do it all.  In most cases, these #1 guys have a year or maybe two where they are that good (see Hughes, Phil and Mazda, Kenya) and are otherwise mortals.  As I see it, the Twins have one guy in Gray who is going to be pretty good (but likely not an ace) and pretty predictable, one guy in Mazda who is recovering from injury and is a bit of a wildcard but could also be pretty good,, and three guys in Mahle, Lopez, and Ryan who are definite candidates to break out and be more productive than ever before.  I prefer that to trading away half of the farm for a year or two of a guy who was previously really good for another team.  

The Twins need to start seeing some serious development from former top-prospects so they can get dangled and traded at the deadline, players like Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Nicky G, Noah Miller, Jordan Balazovic, Austin Martin, etc. as well as our surprisingly deep rotation in vets like Gray and Maeda or Josh Winder or Bailey Ober are all players we should be willing to ship out to get that true Ace: I wouldn’t mind Max Meyer or Mitch Keller, but someone like Burnes, Woodruff, Bieber, Fried or Gallen would make for stud aces to highlight this rotation and hopefully an extension will be reached, because the likes of Lewis, Lee, Julien, Rodriguez and Wallner look like staples in the future of this lineup. If Lee/Lewis/Rodriguez can becomes stars to backup Buxton/Correa who knows how far this lineup will go. 

Develop one from within.  It's cheaper since you have several years of control.  Going the FA route is super expensive and typically you acquire them AFTER they have had their peak years.  Trading for one is also costly in the way of prospect capital.

It may take time but I have confidence that we will develop our ace either from our farm system or by trading for #2's or #3's like we have been and trying to develop them.  If it works then break the bank to extend them before free agency.

"For starters, the draft and development approach hasn’t worked out especially well."

Agreed we seem to have difficulty to draft & develop our own pitching prospects into frontline pitchers much less aces. So what is the big deal to trade away pitching prospect that might not develop into anything. Odds are great that they won't be an ace and if they do amount to anything it'll be a number of years down the road before they make any impact for someone that will make an impact now.

 "Trading for established starters (Gray, Mahle, Maeda) has hurt the farm system, and has given the team a bevy of good, but not great, starting pitchers."

Agreed trading for Maeda cost us our top MLB ready pitching prospect Graterol. Although it was a fair trade, we could have done much better because LAD was very motivated to trade Maeda. But like Mahle we traded away 2 big bats that wouldn't be able to crack the Twins roster so I don't believe we hurt our farm system, again gaining a needed impact SPs.

"What the Twins do have, is a glut of high-minors bats who could help a team as soon as this year in Austin Martin, Matt Wallner, Royce Lewis, Ed Julien and Brooks Lee."

These guys are our near future core which we should not traded away for any reason. These guys  are athletic 5 tools or almost near 5 tool guys. It's unfortunate that Matt Wallner has not develop his raw talent of speed, power & arm thru his years of college & in the Twins system. I'd love to have Tori Hunter spend some quality time with him, to teach him how to read the ball, get a jump on it and even help his swing so that doesn't SO so often.

So should we try for an ace or not? How should we go about it?

There is a recent former Cy Young Award winner that you didn’t include on your list.   Available on the cheap.  Maybe the Twins are trading some of their starting pitching depth, but it doesn’t  make much sense to add an additional arm to the abundant pitching they now possess.   Go with what they have. 

I feel, more than think, that Lopez might reach this height.

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

 

Burnes would be a good pick-up! Would anchor the Staff.

He has ‘24 left under control. Extend him 2 years right away for around $30M/yr……extend Lopez this year, if he’s solid, for 2 more years. Extend Mahle if he throws well for 3 years.

Burnes - $30M ……Mahle - $21M……Lopez - $20M………Varland & Paddack & Headrick & SWR & etc. from the Farm. We’d be set, on paper, through ‘26!

Already spending $16M between Mahle & Lopez. We get back $21 M between Gray & Maeda leaving………Taylor, Kepler, Polanco, Solano, & Gallo will probably all be gone after ‘23 getting us back $36M……..that’s $73M to cover the 3 pitchers above!

Trade Ober - Walner - Martin at the Break or shortly after, for Burnes.

Boy, If Milwaukee only wants Ober Wallner and Martin I am all in. I would imagine Lewis, Lee and Rodriguez would need to be involved to realistically get it done.

Wow - the ACE card has come up again.  No there are not 24 Aces out there if we go by the definitions that seem to float around that this is the guy you want to start and end a WS.  I will take 5 really good pitchers, and an outstanding BP.  The age of 100 MPH means that arms disintegrate - not worth a lot of prospects.  

We have enough articles about how good this SP depth is.  Let's test it. 

Good pitching gets you into the playoffs. After that anything can happen. Very few aces every have the same kind of track record in the playoffs.  

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

 

Burnes would be a good pick-up! Would anchor the Staff.

He has ‘24 left under control. Extend him 2 years right away for around $30M/yr……extend Lopez this year, if he’s solid, for 2 more years. Extend Mahle if he throws well for 3 years.

Burnes - $30M ……Mahle - $21M……Lopez - $20M………Varland & Paddack & Headrick & SWR & etc. from the Farm. We’d be set, on paper, through ‘26!

Already spending $16M between Mahle & Lopez. We get back $21 M between Gray & Maeda leaving………Taylor, Kepler, Polanco, Solano, & Gallo will probably all be gone after ‘23 getting us back $36M……..that’s $73M to cover the 3 pitchers above!

Trade Ober - Walner - Martin at the Break or shortly after, for Burnes.

Scherzer and Verlander set the bar higher for short term pitching. 60 million for 2 years would quickly get turned down

So should we try for an ace or not? How should we go about it?  (cont)

I think right now we can sit pat with what we have. IMO we can get by in the regular season very easily with what we have. But if you are desperate for an ace right now the least expensive route is signing Trevor Bauer. IMO isn't a bad option. Bauer is very debatable which has been debated here extensively. He'll be cheap, if he doesn't work out we can let him go w/o being out much but if he does work out we could have our ace to start the post season.

If we can wait until next year, our next core will start to be MLB ready then we can trade some of our regulars that these prospects can replace (for example unfortunately Polanco). 2 yrs. ago I advocated trading Maeda, Kiriloff & Jeffers in a 3 way trade for Castillo, IMO CIN would have gone for it. I also advocated for Musgrove (PIT).

"Trading for established starters (Gray, Mahle, Maeda) has hurt the farm system..." 

Chase Petty has yet to win a Cy Young and all of the others traded were blocked and/or lower on the team's list of prospects. Trades remain a good way to build or supplement a roster. It takes two and the timing is critical. In July, we may see some opportunities arise for the Twins to add players if it is the right thing to do.

The team does not have any history of signing free agent pitchers of note to high dollar contracts. We should not expect this to change. Extensions are tricky because they rarely involve guys in their walk year, meaning forget all of Gray, Mahle, and Maeda as they should be expected to test their value on the open market.

The Twins will keep their eyes and ears open but anyone expecting moves before July will almost certainly be disappointed. The staff is deep and ready to be tested. 

5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

If I knew Burnes would sign an extension I'd trade for him. But he'll want at least five years. 

Where do you get 5 years? I don’t keep detailed track of the Free Agent signings but I don’t recall many guys signing for more than 3 years as pitchers. He’s making $14 this year I think & one more year of control. If we could get him by August 1 and bump him to $22 (we’ll above arbitration) in ‘24 & give him $30 in ‘25 & ‘26 it seems pretty fair to him! If he needs 5 years & that’s the market - that’s what we need to do for an Ace. Maybe it’s $26M/yr for 5 years……we get a discount on ‘24 & actually have him for 6 years.

Risky but an Ace. Gotta act if we truly want an Ace.

The Twins are not an "ace" away from a title. And an "ace" is no guarantee of success; just look at your list, and see how few titles are held by those pitchers. Burnes is a great pitcher, but he is controllable for 2 years, and then is gone.

How about we play the year, and see where we are at mid-season before we throw away assets we may need to actually get good. Maybe we'll find out we already have an ace on staff.

5 hours ago, MTV said:

The Twins need to start seeing some serious development from former top-prospects so they can get dangled and traded at the deadline, players like Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Nicky G, Noah Miller, Jordan Balazovic, Austin Martin, etc. as well as our surprisingly deep rotation in vets like Gray and Maeda or Josh Winder or Bailey Ober are all players we should be willing to ship out to get that true Ace: I wouldn’t mind Max Meyer or Mitch Keller, but someone like Burnes, Woodruff, Bieber, Fried or Gallen would make for stud aces to highlight this rotation and hopefully an extension will be reached, because the likes of Lewis, Lee, Julien, Rodriguez and Wallner look like staples in the future of this lineup. If Lee/Lewis/Rodriguez can becomes stars to backup Buxton/Correa who knows how far this lineup will go. 

Cleveland trading Bieber to a division rival is not ever going to happen and the Braves aren't parting with Fried 

45 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Where do you get 5 years? I don’t keep detailed track of the Free Agent signings but I don’t recall many guys signing for more than 3 years as pitchers. He’s making $14 this year I think & one more year of control. If we could get him by August 1 and bump him to $22 (we’ll above arbitration) in ‘24 & give him $30 in ‘25 & ‘26 it seems pretty fair to him! If he needs 5 years & that’s the market - that’s what we need to do for an Ace. Maybe it’s $26M/yr for 5 years……we get a discount on ‘24 & actually have him for 6 years.

Risky but an Ace. Gotta act if we truly want an Ace.

Gausman, Ray, Rodriguez signed for 5 as free agents, Rodon for 6, deGrom for 5, Walker, Tallion and Wacha for 4.

They may already have one.  He pitches in the 8th or 9th inning most nights.  Until we're willing to seriously consider this option we're wasting our time even discussing this issue.

………back to Burnes & $/contract details……if we could get him this summer at the deadline, offer him over arbitration $ for ‘24, around $24M & then offer $30M for 3 additional years. I can’t believe he would risk pitching all of ‘24 for arbitration $ of around $18M without any compensation guarantee past ‘24 & not take the additional $96M we would be offering for 3 more years and a signature by end of calendar ‘23.

Who would we trade?

I think a starter with control - Ober…….an OF prospect - Walner…….an IF prospect - Martin…….just saw Martin has been shutdown with a UCL elbow injury. Bummer!

Who else is worth moving to get Brewer’s attention?

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

"Trading for established starters (Gray, Mahle, Maeda) has hurt the farm system..." 

Chase Petty has yet to win a Cy Young and all of the others traded were blocked and/or lower on the team's list of prospects.

To be fair, Chase Petty had a pretty good year for the Reds, playing the year at age 19 and holding his own against much older competition.

Spencer Steer looks like he has a floor of a good utility man, and made his debut last year.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand looks like he almost certainly will hit, even if he ends up a 1B/DH type. He'll likely see time at the MLB level this year.

Steven Hajjar was a second round pick in 2021 who has looked great thus far. He hurt his shoulder after the trade, however.

Brusdar Graterol is a quality reliever at minimum.

That's three MLB players and two young pitchers with upside and decent prospect pedigree. Maybe not the sexiest collection of players but still extremely valuable.

23 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Gausman, Ray, Rodriguez signed for 5 as free agents, Rodon for 6, deGrom for 5, Walker, Tallion and Wacha for 4.

Robbie Ray could be one of worst FA signings ever - he may be their 5th starter……….Rodon signed for $27/yr……Tallion signed for $17/yr…….Wacha can get $24-$30 over 4 years…….Bassitt signed for 3 yrs at $21M/yr.

It’s $ and years weighed together.

I think we extend Burnes an extra $6 million over his potential arbitration high in ‘24 as a good faith move. Then $30M/yr for 3 additional years. That’s a good offer relative to any signings of ‘22-‘23.

The 'sign or trade for an Ace' narrative is REALLY tired.  Robbie Ray was proposed (fail), the Ryu/Toronto was another (fail), Bumgarner (fail), DeGrom (fail 2022 and TBD).  In the past, it was Darvish (fail for several years), and there have been others.  In short, you  need to grow your own (draft) or be very lucky in terms of foresight in a simple trade.  Your odds are better in drafting your own Ace if you take chance with more high draft picks to try (which they Twins rarely do at present).  I would try this year with the #5 - they have many young hitting prospects, and there should be 1 of the 3 best college pitchers, or the best HS pitcher available at that spot; rinse and repeat until you have one.  Otherwise, spend whatever it takes on scouting and pitcher development.  Any other route generally fails (barring 1-2 years of success), and is VERY expensive - assuming a premier Ace will even sign in MN. 

1 hour ago, Crackedfungo said:

The 'sign or trade for an Ace' narrative is REALLY tired.  Robbie Ray was proposed (fail), the Ryu/Toronto was another (fail), Bumgarner (fail), DeGrom (fail 2022 and TBD).  In the past, it was Darvish (fail for several years), and there have been others.  In short, you  need to grow your own (draft) or be very lucky in terms of foresight in a simple trade.

You said it, you gotta have a little luck. Would you say the last ace pitcher the Twins drafted and developed was Radke, Erickson or Viola?