Twins Likely Won't Add, Could Lose Players In Rule 5 Draft

The Twins have the 17^th pick in the Rule 5 draft based on their finish in the standings during the 2015 season. It’s really impossible to know which players will have already been taken, and Terry Ryan has said that most likely they would not take anyone. The Twins have been pretty clear that they are looking for left-handed relievers and a fourth outfielder in free agency and in trades, so if they do clear room and make a pick, those would be the two areas that they could consider.

The Twins have been pretty active in the Rule 5 Draft in recent years, selecting pitchers like JR Graham, Ryan Pressly, Scott Diamond and Terry Doyle.

Who typically gets selected in the Rule 5 draft? Here is a rundown of the past five MLB Rule 5 drafts?

2014 – 14 selections – 5 RHP, 4 LHP, 3 Infielders, 1 outfielder, 1 catcher

2013 – 9 selections – 4 RHP, 3 LHP, 1 infielder, 0 outfielders, 1 catcher

2012 – 15 selections – 5 RHP, 3 LHP, 5 infielders, 2 outfielders, 0 catchers

2011 – 12 selections – 5 RHP, 3 LHP, 3 infielders, 1 outfielder, 0 catchers

2010 – 19 selections – 12 RHP, 4 LHP, 3 infielders, 0 outfielders, 0 catchers

5 year – 69 selections – 31 RHP, 17 LHP, 15 infielders, 4 outfielders, 2 catchers.

Of course, five years is far too small of a sample size to make any strong opinions. Pitchers accounted for 70% of Rule 5 selections over the last five years. That’s no surprise. Of the selections, nearly half of them were returned to their previous team, and another large group stayed with the drafting team after a trade.

Briefly, following the MLB portion of the Rule 5 draft, the AAA and AA portions of the draft will take place. The public is not able to see who is on the Rochester or Chattanooga rosters, so it’s impossible to know who might be lost or made available. There’s no way to know who the Twins could add. I’m kind of pathetic, so I’ve already made a 2016 roster projection for all of the Twins affiliates. Frankly, after the Twins re-signed James Beresford and signed infielder Buck Britton, there aren’t any obvious needs in the minor leagues. Maybe a starting pitcher who could pitch in AA or AAA. Maybe another AAA outfield type, similar to Joe Benson.

So, let’s take a look again at who the Twins could possibly lose in the MLB portion of the Rule 5 draft. We’ll look at the above categories.

Catchers

Eligible: Juan Centeno, Carlos Paulino, Michael Quesada, Jairo Rodriguez

It’s quite unlikely that any of these guys will be selected.

Outfielders

Eligible: Travis Harrison, Edgar Corcino, Joe Benson

Look again at the list above. Few outfielders are left unprotected. Harrison is still just 23-years-old. He was a supplemental first-round pick in 2013. Corcino is a great athlete who spent last season in Cedar Rapids, but again, these players are unlikely to be selected.

Infielders

Eligible: James Beresford, Levi Michael, Buck Britton, Niko Goodrum, Bryan Haar, Dalton Hicks, Aderlin Mejia, Reynaldo Rodriguez, Logan Wade, Stephen Wickens

The name to be most concerned about losing is likely Levi Michael. The former first-round pick has endured more than his fair share of injuries. However, when he has been healthy the last two years, he has been productive offensively. He’s played mostly second base, with some shortstop, so could a team stash him in the big leagues as a utility infielder? It’s possible.

Niko Goodrum is young and very athletic and there are a lot of people who still believe he will grow more into his frame. His value is that he can play shortstop, and the last couple of seasons, he has played a lot of third base and center field as well as some second base. A team could take a flyer on him developing late. That team would need to be willing to keep him all year.

The assumption is, and should be, that James Beresford and Buck Britton will not be taken. However, the Twins have a history of signing a guy to a minor league contract and a week later losing him to the Rule 5 draft. That was R.A. Dickey in an an unusual situation. A team looking for a utility infielder could take one of these guys too.

Left-Handed Pitchers

Eligible: Corey Williams, David Hurlbut, Brett Lee, Jason Wheeler, Aaron Thompson

All four of these guys ended last season with a championship in Chattanooga. Wheeler was the MVP of the championship series. Hurlbut, Lee and Wheeler all were part of a terrific starting rotation. Wheeler was added to the 40-man roster last year but struggled in AAA. Williams is fully healthy and he may be a guy teams are interested in as a long-term lefty bullpen guy.

Right-Handed Pitchers

Zack Jones, Felix Jorge, Alex Wimmers, Luke Bard, DJ Baxendale, Alex Muren, Dereck Rodriguez, Loek Van Mil, Jose Abreu, Jason Adam, Nick Anderson, Omar Bencomo, Sam Gibbons, Miguel Gonzalez, Cole Johnson, Kuo-Hua Lo, Greg Peavey, Tim Shibuya, Matt Summers, Todd Van Steensel

Everyone is talking about Zack Jones, and I would say there is a decent chance that he is selected. If anyone will does get selected, it will be the hard-throwing right-hander.

Alex Wimmers and Luke Bard are former first-round picks who are available. Wimmers is already 27 and was average in the Lookouts bullpen. Bard finally was healthy in the second half of 2015 and pitched well in Cedar Rapids. He is a guy who could move fast next year.

Felix Jorge is one to watch as well. He has good stuff. He’s young. He was remarkably consistent last year with Cedar Rapids. Could a team stash him in the back of a bullpen, and how would a year in the bullpen affect him long-term? Sam Gibbons was good in the second half for Cedar Rapids as well, but the Australian is probably behind Jorge in the pecking order.

Could a team take a flyer on the potential of Dereck Rodriguez who has only two years on the mound under his belt? Loek Van Mil signed back with the Twins late last year. Suddenly, the 7-1, 31-year-old was throwing in the upper-90s. Could be a guy that could contribute right away. Alex Muren isn’t a name that comes up a lot when people talk about bullpen options in the Twins system. However, he is a groundball machine, and last year, he was hitting 95-97 mph with a fastball. DJ Baxendale is a guy someone could take a flyer on as a future bullpen guy. He’s got a nice slider, and the two-pitch mix could make him an effective reliever. Cole Johnson has a unique delivery. The former low-round pick had some success at the AAA level.

SUMMARY

A team like the Milwaukee Brewers, who have just 35 players on their 40 man roster right now, could take a couple of players. As a team that isn’t likely to win in 2016, they would be OK with using up a couple of roster spots on Rule 5 picks. Other teams that may not plan to truly compete in 2016 could stash players. So, depending upon the team and the situation, the Twins do have a handful of guys that could be taken.

Below is how I would rank the top five players who could be taken tomorrow morning:

1.) Zack Jones – I’d put it at about 50-50

2.) Levi Michael – maybe 30%

3.) Corey Williams – maybe 25%

4.) Felix Jorge – maybe 25%

5.) Luke Bard – maybe 20%

Of course, these are just guesses. There is really no rhyme or reason to the Rule 5 draft. It will be entertaining to listen to, and I’m sure there will be plenty of discussion with the results.